Joey Gallo, Dan Uggla, advanced stats, you are an idiot if you don’t bow down to advanced stats, and that awesome commercial from years ago.
That sums up the last two days?
Just to chime in on the Great Muk Debate:
1) There are late bloomers and late career resurgences in baseball. Some are one-season things. Others last longer.
2) The improvement in Muk's strikeout rate last year has a good chance of being mostly sustained in 2019.
3) The uptick in power was relatively small (I'm talking about the full-season data) and is less likely to be sustained.
4) Muk did make an adjustment, trying to meet the ball earlier. When results follow from an identifiable adjustment (like Anibal and the cutter), the chances of sustaining improved results are better.
5) It really doesn't make sense to divide up Muk's season into two halves. The full-season data tell us more than focusing on either half.
6) Bottom line. Muk's most reasonable projection for 2019 is about 1.5 WAR. If we can get him for less than 10M on a one-year deal, it would be a decent value play.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
NYCBrave (12-28-2018), Southcack77 (12-28-2018)
"Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly
“I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg
I understand this point. It is a valid one.
But there is another equally relevant point. Which is that AA has been making moves that preserve financial flexibility. Donaldson on a one-year deal. Ditto McCann.
I think if we focus on a bit more than the 2019 season, Muk on a one-year deal makes a bit of sense. We avoid giving up any prospect capital. The contract comes off the books after one year.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Southcack77 (12-28-2018)
All of this debate hinges on one very unknown thing. Currently, will Marky take a 1 year deal at under $10M? Even though Streamer projects him at 1.1 War, does he think he his better? Does he know this may be his last contract and wants multi-years? Does he want to go back to Baltimore?
We always assume AA either did not want them or did not try to get every FA. They have to be willing to say yes also.
It appears AA had active interest in Brantley but not McCutchen. The price got too high for Brantley and maybe he preferred Houston for non-financial reasons.
There are alternatives to Muk that are very similar in terms of projected production and probably cost under 10M. So there is no need for us to go beyond that.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
So a bunch of nerds say one thing about Markakis so he shouldn’t even play anymore because they know everything?
He's taking my former role in this debate, but I no longer see the going for it options as particularly likely this winter. I don't want to pay full price for the options that have been thrown around in trade.
In the absence of better options, I pivot to maintaining max flexibility.
JohnAdcox (12-28-2018)
i'm gonna be pissed if we bring back Nick
"For there is always light, if only we are brave enough to see it. If only we are brave enough to be it." Amanda Gorman
"When Fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross"
clvclv (12-28-2018)
I’m still not seeing the appeal of paying the hefty ransom for Realmuto—when the Braves have a viable catching platoon, while Realmuto only has two years of arbitration remaining and is approaching age-30—especially when many of those same advocates balk at the idea of paying for a 25-year-old cOF with four years of control, massive power, solid bb-rates, and (depending on how you value/quantify framing) likely better relative defense than Realmuto.
I’m not saying Gallo is an end-all cure-all, but I’d rather see the Braves pay the requisite price for his services, and forge ahead with the Flowers/McCann platoon, than see them pay the requisite price for Realmuto and pivot to a Markakis/Duvall platoon. The same logic could be applied to Haniger, but Gallo seems more realistic.
Last edited by jpx7; 12-28-2018 at 02:41 PM.
"For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."
DirkPiggler (12-28-2018)