2018 Offseason And Targets

[Southcack77]

pelkey: there’s basically no chance david peralta doesn’t get traded right? what would reasonable compensation for him look like?

9:08
Jeff Sullivan: I think there’s some chance — he’s in his 30s, he’s a non-elite corner outfielder, and there are only so many buyers right now with such a need

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: But he’d be a clear fit in, say, Atlanta. Maybe Arizona could come away with someone like Kolby Allard, but they might have to aim a tier lower depending on how many alternatives the Braves are looking at



Umm, not sure Jeff is on the money with his cost estimate here.

[Freshmaker]

"It appears their need for a front-line starter will most likely be satisfied via trade. Marcus Stroman...Sonny Gray has also been discussed. Bumgarner does not appear to be a primary option."

I don't see the point in acquiring someone like Gray, but he can be sold as a "front line starter" to the dumber fans. The Stroman rumors just won't die, so it remains to be seen if the Jays are willing to sell him now. I just don't see any guys available that would be a real upgrade over the young pitchers they would replace. I think a deal for a starter is best suited for the deadline 6+ months from now.

Agreed. If we trade for a pitcher I want it to be a clear upgrade. If the best they are aiming for is Stroman or Gray I'd rather just roll with what we've got. If we need an innings eater for #5 I'm fine with that being Teheran and then letting him walk next year.

[Southcack77]

Poised: There’s a lot of similarities between last offseason’s Christian Yellich and this offseason’s Mitch Haniger. Both corner OF, same age, 3+ years of control, coming off a 4.6 win season, both career 130 wRC+ hitters. Would a Mitch Haniger trade look similar to what the Yellich trade looked like? Yellich had more history of success, while Haniger has an additional year of control.

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Yelich was traded going into his age-26 season. Haniger is going into his age-28 season

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: And while Haniger has four more years of team control, Yelich had up to five, including a club option, plus the cost control of a guaranteed long-term contract

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: Then you throw in the fact that Yelich at least has the perception of having greater upside, which I do think is fair

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: Haniger is good, and underrated, and if he were traded the Mariners would get a haul back, but I think Haniger’s trade value now is below where Yelich was last season. Fairly significant gap, as well



This seems right though.

[Southcack77]

Agreed. If we trade for a pitcher I want it to be a clear upgrade. If the best they are aiming for is Stroman or Gray I'd rather just roll with what we've got. If we need an innings eater for #5 I'm fine with that being Teheran and then letting him walk next year.

If it's Stroman or Gray it will likely be prospects similar to what were moved in the Gausman deal or less, I would imagine. Maybe the Padres or the Reds or somebody might really be hype about these guys, but i can't see it being much of a bidding war.

[Southcack77]

Although if we can just trade Kolby Allard for Peralta is that ok, or do we still have to eat Zack Greinke?

[bravesfanMatt]

If Allard = Peralta. Then that should be done already.

[striker42]

If Allard = Peralta. Then that should be done already.

Agreed

[Oklahomabrave]

I mean it might cost more than Alllard but I’m assuming it wouldn’t be done because Peralta isn’t the 1rst, 2nd, or 3rd option even. Multiple years of mediocrity preceding this past good year, needs to be platooned, and in his 30’s.

[BeanieAntics]

I mean it might cost more than Alllard but I’m assuming it wouldn’t be done because Peralta isn’t the 1rst, 2nd, or 3rd option even. Multiple years of mediocrity preceding this past good year, needs to be platooned, and in his 30’s.

Peralta hasn't had multiple years of mediocrity. He's been good for an ~.800 OPS in his career aside from an injury shortened 2016. He has produced 9.5 fWAR in the three seasons where he played over 140 games. He's been a well above average cOFer since he's been in the league. Given the ostensibly low cost to acquire him, you could make an argument that he's our cheapest path to finding a 3 win outfielder for the next two years.

[nsacpi]

Newcomb represents an overpay for Peralta and Allard an underpay.

If we want a fair value one-for-one trade for Peralta, the most likely candidates are Wilson, Waters and Toussaint.

[bravesfanMatt]

Newcomb represents an overpay for Peralta and Allard an underpay.

If we want a fair value one-for-one trade for Peralta, the most likely candidates are Wilson, Waters and Toussaint.

You keep your dirty hands off of wilson and Touki. You hear me.

[tululush]

Newcomb represents an overpay for Peralta and Allard an underpay.

If we want a fair value one-for-one trade for Peralta, the most likely candidates are Wilson, Waters and Toussaint.

If there was a deal on the table of Newk for Peralta what do you do? I almost say you have to accept. We have a hole in the outfield, this would be a great fit, and we have somewhat of a surplus at SP.

[Hulavol]

Newcomb represents an overpay for Peralta and Allard an underpay.

If we want a fair value one-for-one trade for Peralta, the most likely candidates are Wilson, Waters and Toussaint.

Wilson Waters and Touki are WAYYY more valuable than Peralta. Not insulting you, but man- are you nuts? Those three guys could all be MVP level. Especially Touki.
No way in hell I'm trading any of them for anyone not named Haniger. That typed, I wouldn't be surprised if we overpaid....

[bravesfanforlife88]

From Bowman's article on Braves.com:

"Braves chairman Terry McGuirk has said the club has the financial resources necessary to make at least one more significant investment this offseason. Team officials have said the payroll has increased. Specific figures have not been revealed, but it's believed Anthopoulos still has at least $30 million left to spend."

Not buying having atleast $30m left.

[nsacpi]

If there was a deal on the table of Newk for Peralta what do you do? I almost say you have to accept. We have a hole in the outfield, this would be a great fit, and we have somewhat of a surplus at SP.

i would accept ...but part of it is because i rate Newcomb a bit lower than what the consensus in baseball seems to be

on the other hand I'm bullish on Wilson and Waters...i'd rather give up Newcomb than those two

[nsacpi]

Wilson Waters and Touki are WAYYY more valuable than Peralta. Not insulting you, but man- are you nuts? Those three guys could all be MVP level. Especially Touki.
No way in hell I'm trading any of them for anyone not named Haniger. That typed, I wouldn't be surprised if we overpaid....

I'm not insulted. But I think you are overstating their value within the baseball world.

[nsacpi]

From Bowman's article on Braves.com:

"Braves chairman Terry McGuirk has said the club has the financial resources necessary to make at least one more significant investment this offseason. Team officials have said the payroll has increased. Specific figures have not been revealed, but it's believed Anthopoulos still has at least $30 million left to spend."

Not buying having atleast $30m left.

more like 20-25 imo

30+ if you are counting the funds saved for mid-season moves...which for some strange reason Bowman keeps doing

[bravesfanforlife88]

more like 20-25 imo

30+ if you are counting the funds saved for mid-season moves...which for some strange reason Bowman keeps doing

I think it was DoB who mentioned the other day he thinks it is closer to $15m-$20m. I'd tend be believe it is in that area. I wish we could move Teheran and O'day to clear up close to $20m

[Enscheff]

Wilson Waters and Touki are WAYYY more valuable than Peralta. Not insulting you, but man- are you nuts? Those three guys could all be MVP level. Especially Touki.
No way in hell I'm trading any of them for anyone not named Haniger. That typed, I wouldn't be surprised if we overpaid....

This is the first time I've seen any of those 3 guys described as potential MVPs...

Having said that, I'd much rather see AA give Cutch 2-3 years before he ships off Touki for Peralta.

I personally don't consider Peralta to be anything better than Plan C or lower.

[Enscheff]

From Bowman's article on Braves.com:

"Braves chairman Terry McGuirk has said the club has the financial resources necessary to make at least one more significant investment this offseason. Team officials have said the payroll has increased. Specific figures have not been revealed, but it's believed Anthopoulos still has at least $30 million left to spend."

Not buying having atleast $30m left.

Currently sitting at $107M, and we have long been assuming an opening day payroll in the range of $120M-$125M (up from ~$110 last year). That leaves $13M-$18M, with an easy $3M to free up by dumping Duval, pushing the total available up to $16M-$21M.

If the Braves opening day payroll is closer to $130M, that makes the total available payroll right around $21M-$26M.

Bowman has been pushing this "at least $60M to spend" line all off season, and I have to conclude he is talking about total season payroll rather than opening day payroll that we usually reference when talking about building the roster. Bowman is simply talking about a different number than everyone else typically does. Why? Because Bowman.

I would be shocked if the Braves have an opening day payroll of $137M+ as Bowman seems to be suggesting. Happy, but shocked.

I find it highly likely the Braves have $30M+ left to spend on the entire season, will save $5M-$10M for the deadline, and have ~$20M of room remaining on the opening day payroll right now, possibly a bit more. That could be enough for Cutch, a LHH bench bat (replacing Duval), and a value BP arm.

I fully expect the Braves to be in on every single big name trade candidate at the 2019 deadline, most likely an impact rental arm of some sort.