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Thread: 2018 Offseason And Targets

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    I still dont think Kimbrel makes alot of sense. He's been declining some and would cost a pick, but i guess it depends on the money per year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hudson2 View Post
    So we’re willing to give Kimbrel a short term deal, at what point does he realize the long term deal isn’t available to him anywhere?
    I think some team would offer 3/40 or somewhere thereabouts, but I think he's looking for the big contract or a higher AAV on a 1 year deal. If we offered 1/18 million with a 2nd year option at a cheaper rate, maybe that would entice him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    I still dont think Kimbrel makes alot of sense. He's been declining some and would cost a pick, but i guess it depends on the money per year.
    One year deal “could” net us a pick back if he has a great year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    One year deal “could” net us a pick back if he has a great year.
    nope
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheBravos View Post
    One year deal “could” net us a pick back if he has a great year.
    A player can't be offered a qualifying offer twice. Braves get nothing but his production and the appreciation of Braves fans everywhere if we sign him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    A player can't be offered a qualifying offer twice. Braves get nothing but his production and the appreciation of Braves fans everywhere if we sign him.
    And the donation of a draft pick/pool space back to mlb
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    I still dont think Kimbrel makes alot of sense. He's been declining some and would cost a pick, but i guess it depends on the money per year.
    Kimbrel is 60 innings of great pitching. How is that not valuable?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Baseball King View Post
    Kimbrel is 60 innings of great pitching. How is that not valuable?
    Because you don't know it'll be great pitching. His Ks went down, BBs went up and velocity went down last year.

    That's not someone I'm willing to forfeit our second-round pick to sign, especially with our international signing limitations.

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    A few years ago Kimbrel was a 2+ WAR player.

    Now he is more a 1.5 WAR player and will probably not even be that in 2-3 years.

    He and his agent wanted to be paid the market rate for a 2 WAR player for five years. They obviously were not being realistic.

    Suppose we pay him the going rate for a 1 WAR player this season (about 8M). That would still not represent great value for the club. We need to take into account the loss of the pick, which is worth the equivalent of about 1 WAR. So when you add the loss of the pick and the salary we are paying him the equivalent of 2 WAR. Not a great value for a player who projects at 1.5 WAR in 2019. And I'm all about value. As is AA.

    Kimbrel and his agent have badly miscalculated. They should have taken the QO.
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    I'm less worried about Kimbrel's decline than some here. Relief pitchers' numbers tend to fluctuate. A guy can have a down year and then rattle off 3 awesome years, fall of a cliff and be terrible for two years, then figure something out and be good again. So I'm not going to read last year as the start of a decline.

    I still think some people want to compare him to Minter and not see it as a huge upgrade. But it's not Minter he'd be replacing. Kimbrel would take the closer role and that would shift Minter to the 8th. That in turn would shift Viz to the 7th. And so on. Kimbrel's actually replacing the last man (or more likely a rotating list for that spot) in the pen. It's 60 innings of Kimbrel instead of 60 innings going to a scrub or innings where you try to get a little more out of a starter.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ9 View Post
    Because you don't know it'll be great pitching. His Ks went down, BBs went up and velocity went down last year.

    That's not someone I'm willing to forfeit our second-round pick to sign, especially with our international signing limitations.
    It's ok to recognize he's is likely declining a bit, but let's not go overboard. 2018 Kimbrel is still one of the best closers ever. 13.9 k/9 is consistent with his numbers from 2013-2016. His velocity is down from what it was a couple years ago, but it's still higher than it was earlier in his career. BB rates fluctuate with relievers too.

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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    I'm less worried about Kimbrel's decline than some here. Relief pitchers' numbers tend to fluctuate. A guy can have a down year and then rattle off 3 awesome years, fall of a cliff and be terrible for two years, then figure something out and be good again. So I'm not going to read last year as the start of a decline.

    I still think some people want to compare him to Minter and not see it as a huge upgrade. But it's not Minter he'd be replacing. Kimbrel would take the closer role and that would shift Minter to the 8th. That in turn would shift Viz to the 7th. And so on. Kimbrel's actually replacing the last man (or more likely a rotating list for that spot) in the pen. It's 60 innings of Kimbrel instead of 60 innings going to a scrub or innings where you try to get a little more out of a starter.
    he has to be priced as a certain type of player...do you price him at a 2 WAR player? a 1.5 WAR player?...it's all good and well to say I'm less worried about his decline than others...but those who are bullish on Kimbrel should come out and say where they price him at and how many years they are willing to go out
    Last edited by nsacpi; 03-06-2019 at 09:34 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    It's ok to recognize he's is likely declining a bit, but let's not go overboard. 2018 Kimbrel is still one of the best closers ever. 13.9 k/9 is consistent with his numbers from 2013-2016. His velocity is down from what it was a couple years ago, but it's still higher than it was earlier in his career. BB rates fluctuate with relievers too.
    2018 Kimbrel was a 1.5 WAR player...that draft pick we give up is worth about 1 WAR...the math is rather unpleasant for anyone wanting to make the case we should sign Kimbrel
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    Quote Originally Posted by striker42 View Post
    I'm less worried about Kimbrel's decline than some here. Relief pitchers' numbers tend to fluctuate. A guy can have a down year and then rattle off 3 awesome years, fall of a cliff and be terrible for two years, then figure something out and be good again. So I'm not going to read last year as the start of a decline.

    I still think some people want to compare him to Minter and not see it as a huge upgrade. But it's not Minter he'd be replacing. Kimbrel would take the closer role and that would shift Minter to the 8th. That in turn would shift Viz to the 7th. And so on. Kimbrel's actually replacing the last man (or more likely a rotating list for that spot) in the pen. It's 60 innings of Kimbrel instead of 60 innings going to a scrub or innings where you try to get a little more out of a starter.
    This.

    I'm still not a huge proponent of signing him to a short-term deal and giving up the pick, but I'm not so overly concerned about the value of the deal being a perfect fit. If he'd sign a reasonable 3 year deal (say $13 million per), I'd be OK with it because it wouldn't be so much about him being a little overpriced as it would be about sliding everyone down a notch and eliminating the weakest link in the pen. Being able to finally say goodbye to guys like Jackson or Carle wouldn't hurt many people's feelings IMO - plus you'd be able to send Sobotka down whenever he's having control issues.
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

    Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    This.

    I'm still not a huge proponent of signing him to a short-term deal and giving up the pick, but I'm not so overly concerned about the value of the deal being a perfect fit. If he'd sign a reasonable 3 year deal (say $13 million per), I'd be OK with it because it wouldn't be so much about him being a little overpriced as it would be about sliding everyone down a notch and eliminating the weakest link in the pen. Being able to finally say goodbye to guys like Jackson or Carle wouldn't hurt many people's feelings IMO - plus you'd be able to send Sobotka down whenever he's having control issues.
    So if we sign Kimbrel for 13M what impact do you think that has on our ability to do mid-season acquisitions.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    A few years ago Kimbrel was a 2+ WAR player.

    Now he is more a 1.5 WAR player and will probably not even be that in 2-3 years.

    He and his agent wanted to be paid the market rate for a 2 WAR player for five years. They obviously were not being realistic.

    Suppose we pay him the going rate for a 1 WAR player this season (about 8M). That would still not represent great value for the club. We need to take into account the loss of the pick, which is worth the equivalent of about 1 WAR. So when you add the loss of the pick and the salary we are paying him the equivalent of 2 WAR. Not a great value for a player who projects at 1.5 WAR in 2019. And I'm all about value. As is AA.

    Kimbrel and his agent have badly miscalculated. They should have taken the QO.

    Your estimation of the value of the 60th pick seems high.

    This has been a year of people claiming teams and players had grossly miscalculated value and would end up unhappy and yet just about every player has realized the reasonable market projections coming into the offseason.

    I suspect there is still a market for Kimbrel.

    I don't think he'll be a Brave, but he would make the Braves a better team. I don't have a whole lot of concern about his effectiveness or decline, but it doesn't really make a ton of sense for the Braves to be the high bid on a closer given the rest of this offseason.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Your estimation of the value of the 60th pick seems high.

    This has been a year of people claiming teams and players had grossly miscalculated value and would end up unhappy and yet just about every player has realized the reasonable market projections coming into the offseason.

    I suspect there is still a market for Kimbrel.

    I don't think he'll be a Brave, but he would make the Braves a better team. I don't have a whole lot of concern about his effectiveness or decline, but it doesn't really make a ton of sense for the Braves to be the high bid on a closer given the rest of this offseason.
    here's a study of the value of draft picks

    https://tht.fangraphs.com/the-net-value-of-draft-picks/

    I think the reasonable market value for Kimbrel is that of a 1.5 win player...maybe a little more....17M if he is willing to do a 1 year deal, around 14-15M for a 3 year deal...I think that kind of deal is what has been available to him

    if we sign him for 15M what do you think happens to our ability to make mid-season moves
    Last edited by nsacpi; 03-06-2019 at 10:04 AM.
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    It should be mentioned that Kimbrell was a 3.3 win player in 2017. It hasn't been five years.

    his issue seems maybe to have been a lost of fastball command last year more than anything else. Overall, he just wasn't as good in the second half, but that's a fairly small sample for a reliever.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    It's ok to recognize he's is likely declining a bit, but let's not go overboard. 2018 Kimbrel is still one of the best closers ever. 13.9 k/9 is consistent with his numbers from 2013-2016. His velocity is down from what it was a couple years ago, but it's still higher than it was earlier in his career. BB rates fluctuate with relievers too.
    last year's kimbrel was not one of the best closers ever.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    2018 Kimbrel was a 1.5 WAR player...that draft pick we give up is worth about 1 WAR...the math is rather unpleasant for anyone wanting to make the case we should sign Kimbrel
    I really don't think WAR properly values relievers. A couple of really bad outings can really tank your overall WAR.

    I do know the difference in a great closer and a bad closer can make a significant difference over the course of the year.

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