Could be. Might not be later.Originally Posted by Hudson2
If aa holds his cards there will be bargains on the table.
My main issue is that we need the best team not the best resource allocation . A one war cof for 5 million is a deal but we need a three plus war of IMO.
Keeping peralta makes zero sense. If I’m Arizona I’d rather have jenista than peralta and I doubt he’s a mlb player.
DirkPiggler (12-28-2018)
I think any team in the lower half of the payroll distribution (and we are one of those) is going to need some luck plus be very smart about using their prospect capital if they are to have any sort of extended run. We did hit the jackpot on Acuna and Albies. That's gonna help. But AA is always going to have to be very careful to avoid having payroll eaten up by deadweight players. That is the kiss of death for a franchise that isn't in the top half of the payroll distribution. The good news is that right now we have zero deadweight payroll. And have a chance to keep it at zero going forward.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
He was 2.8 last year while playing a decent amount of 1B, where he’s a negative defender (unlike OF), and without which he may have been right at 3.0; projections are forecasting small improvements in bb%, k%, and babip to propel him to the 3.0-3.5 war range. But even if you value him as a 2.5-war player outside of Texas, that’s still right around a reasonable projection for Newcomb (2.5x4 vs 2.0x5).
"For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."
I agree, especially considering—as you mentioned upthread, and which I’d been incorporating into my thinking as well—that Gallo’s likely to see bigger change chunks via arbitration; though there’s some offset there, given pitcher volatility.
"For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."
With respect to Camargo, he's had one 3.3 WAR season. Gallo has had 2 seasons at 2.8. Plus more of a pedigree. If Camargo puts up another 3 or higher season, his value will go up a lot.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Just sign CarGo and get it over with.
If we just took exactly the average of what Gallo has done over his two full seasons and exactly what Newcomb has did last year and used that as their projections, Gallo would still be more valuable 11.2 wins to 9.5. It is very difficult to make Newcomb and Gallo equal value. You'd have to take the absolute most optimistic outlook on Newcomb and an unreasonably bearish outlook on Gallo to get there. We would almost certainly have to add another piece of some value to get him.
Yeah, but your also the high man on Wilson aren't you?
I am above consensus on Wilson, but he seems to have some other fans around here.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Yeah this too. It takes a little digging, but if you get into the deep numbers behind Gallo's superficial numbers you can easily see how he could add another half win to his profile. With Newcomb, it basically all comes down to whether or not he can improve his command and if he can pitch well over 30+ starts. So far, he has fewer indicators that would suggest he'll improve dramatically. Certainly not enough to justify projecting him as more than a 2 win pitcher over 5 years.
I like Wilson for sure, but I still consider him in that 70-85th prospect range. A solid 50 FV pitcher that's worth around 20 million in SV.
He was also 1.1 through 80 games of his rookie year where he played more games at SS. You think his value increase from where it is now with a year less of control? Not sure I agree there, unless he improves.
I think with Camargo, if you dig a little into his batted ball profile, especially from the left side it looks like he's had some luck.
With Gallo it is a bit the opposite. You look at his BABIP and think he's been a little unlucky.
If those two repeated their 2018 seasons in 2019, you would have to conclude that maybe Camargo was not so lucky and Gallo not so unlucky.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Weird aa target of the day. Alex Cobb. They have to eat at least 5 million a year.
I still hate it. I wouldn’t want 4 years of him at 7 million a year. But I keep thinking aa is going to end up with names nobody has linked to him
There is no universe where Markakis gets $15M over 1 season...obviously that’s the worst option because it’s a horrible contract.
Even at 8m or 10m I'd prefer the other three options.
jpx7 (12-28-2018)
Put me in the anyone but Markakis or Cargo column . Corey Dickerson or Joc Pederson would be fine with me but I'm still want JTR or Grandal because they make our lineup better and the need in LF isn't as urgent. I just don't want Markakis back.
The need in the outfield is pretty clearly much more urgent than the need at catcher. Given Flower's framing, we could roll with McCann and Flowers and still have an average catching tandem. If we don't get someone for the cOF, either RF or LF would be an absolute disaster.
jpx7 (12-28-2018)
Not if Newk is used to get JTR or Haniger.
There are a few scenarios where bringing Markakis back for 1 year makes sense.
If Markakis is “the move” to finish the roster then it’s obviously an issue, but I have a hard time believing AA doesn’t have 1-2 big trades primed that are just waiting on other pieces to fall (namely Grandal).
Having this top of lineup...
Acuna
Realmuto
FF
Donaldson
Albies
Makes the hole in lf/rf easier to fill.
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