2018 Offseason And Targets

[zbhargrove]

The point was made that the Yankees were hoping for more discussion from us. Newk/Fried/Gohara are the left-handed pitching prospects you know Cashman's angling for.

I never once offered an effort to measure anything by the charts - everyone else is going to do that, and that's fine. The reports say Cashman is looking for a legitimate return for Gray, and he's constantly overvalued Frazier in trade talks since they have absolutely no use for him. The statement I made was that I don't think AA has any particular problem giving up some of the SPs. Most reports continue to tie us to Gray (much moreso than Frazier), and the point was that offering those types of talent up for one year of a shot in the dark like Gray is pretty ridiculous no matter what the precious charts say.

Since we don't know what these GMs have been tasked with by their ownership, using the charts is only helpful part of the time - and those discussions are great - but I've never been interested in being the one trying to set some arbitrary value on prospects. They don't need Gray and/or Frazier, we don't need all these arms - slice it up whatever way makes you happy. It's always funny to read the posts trashing Dipoto for not following those precious charts to the letter. He was interviewed earlier today and admitted he was specifically tasked with slashing future payroll this winter and mentioned that the moves he's made have already saved the Mariners over $100 million so far. You think their ownership isn't happy???

Play the surplus value games all you like - those numbers have a way of being wrong as often as they're right. Those prospects have to find their way onto an MLB roster before they can start accumulating WAR, and every year you hang onto them and tuck them away in AAA is just one less year they have a chance to do that. The depth is always something worth striving for, but if it causes you to have guys like Markakis or CarGo hitting in the middle of your lineup and playing LF instead of someone like Frazier/Peralta or several others while Fried and Gohara hang out in Gwinnett or the pen you're not going very far.

14 straight division titles is absolutely great - 1 Championship over that period makes you the butt of jokes. If the vaunted Cubs and Astros don't start making a few more win-now moves soon, they (and their fans) are going to get to know just what that feels like to a point.

Yeah doesn't matter how much the Yankees think they can get in value for Gray and/or Frazier... AA is not desperate or dumb... Camargo alone is more valuable than both players combined at the moment. More brilliance from the clv

You can delude yourself all you want... the surplus value balance is there in the vast majority of trades that occur. If you choose not to believe it, that is fine and very clv of you. However it's true. And I guarantee AA is not going to vastly overpay for Gray/Frazier... Camargo alone is a vast overpay and it's pretty clear to everyone except you.

I just reread your post... do you even read what you write?? The last 2 paragraphs are just ramblings of things that make zero sense and have nothing to do with the discussion. Let's trade prospects for whoever is available no matter the cost no matter how good they are. Fried and Gohara in the pen won't get you anywhere? They could be two crucial pen pieces... dominant high leverage relievers. Not to mention the 5th starter is pretty much an open competition of Fried/Gohara/Soroka/Wilson... you keep wanting to trade Fried for peanuts... you know he was really good starting last year in the majors right? And Frazier is still s prospect who hasn't proven anything... you're harping on holding onto prospects but you want to trade for another one and use proven major league talent to get him? Do you listen to yourself?

[Tapate50]

his value was super low. either they weren't going to sell low or you had to predict he would finally break out.

Well... yeah.

[Acuña’s Bat Flip]

Newk, Riley, Flowers for JTR. Marlins get the MLB ready players they want so they can waste them on a losing team.

Gohara for Gray/Frazier. If not Gohara then other pitching the Yankees will magically make throw 5 mph harder and turn into a weapon. Watch Allard throw 95 in pinstripes.

I don’t really want to see the Braves get Gray, but all signs point to a SP acquisition.

I don't want to lose Gohara.

[Enscheff]

14 straight division titles is absolutely great - 1 Championship over that period makes you the butt of jokes. If the vaunted Cubs and Astros don't start making a few more win-now moves soon, they (and their fans) are going to get to know just what that feels like to a point.

Surplus value is not a game. It is the way modern FOs evaluate roster construction. What is going on in Seattle is terrible team management, regardless of what the owners like or don’t like.

After defending Dip****o, you say this?

The Cubs and Astros have won WS very recently. Both teams are making many win-now moves. In fact, the Cubs have made so many win-now moves their window of contention has been dramatically shortened

Seriously, just when I think you can’t make statements any dumber than your previous ones, you come out and do it.

[Enscheff]

I don't want to lose Gohara.

I agree, but he seems like the perfect target for the Yankees. It’s nothing but a guess on my part, and no specific scenario is all that likely to happen.

I don’t want them to acquire Gray, and I’m not a huge fan of getting Frazier. I just think that Gray is likely and once they start talking about Gray it will be logical to expand the deal to Frazier.

[clvclv]

Yeah doesn't matter how much the Yankees think they can get in value for Gray and/or Frazier... AA is not desperate or dumb... Camargo alone is more valuable than both players combined at the moment. More brilliance from the clv

You can delude yourself all you want... the surplus value balance is there in the vast majority of trades that occur. If you choose not to believe it, that is fine and very clv of you. However it's true. And I guarantee AA is not going to vastly overpay for Gray/Frazier... Camargo alone is a vast overpay and it's pretty clear to everyone except you.

I just reread your post... do you even read what you write?? The last 2 paragraphs are just ramblings of things that make zero sense and have nothing to do with the discussion. Let's trade prospects for whoever is available no matter the cost no matter how good they are. Fried and Gohara in the pen won't get you anywhere? They could be two crucial pen pieces... dominant high leverage relievers. Not to mention the 5th starter is pretty much an open competition of Fried/Gohara/Soroka/Wilson... you keep wanting to trade Fried for peanuts... you know he was really good starting last year in the majors right? And Frazier is still s prospect who hasn't proven anything... you're harping on holding onto prospects but you want to trade for another one and use proven major league talent to get him? Do you listen to yourself?

I "could" be Bill Gates.

If you want to utilize Fried and Gohara as high-leverage pen pieces, I'm all for that - just do it. Fried has already lost two seasons to injury, and every pitch he throws gets him that much closer to the last one. Just stop wasting him away in Gwinnett. If you're keeping him strictly for depth, you're absolutely wasting him. Are they better than league-average Freeman you guys love so much? Then cut him loose and replace him with them. If they need to be stretched back out to help in the rotation, send them to Gwinnett for a couple weeks to do that when that time comes, otherwise use them to help the big league club win games before you can't trade them at all.

[BeanieAntics]

The point was made that the Yankees were hoping for more discussion from us. Newk/Fried/Gohara are the left-handed pitching prospects you know Cashman's angling for.

I never once offered an effort to measure anything by the charts - everyone else is going to do that, and that's fine. The reports say Cashman is looking for a legitimate return for Gray, and he's constantly overvalued Frazier in trade talks since they have absolutely no use for him. The statement I made was that I don't think AA has any particular problem giving up some of the SPs. Most reports continue to tie us to Gray (much moreso than Frazier), and the point was that offering those types of talent up for one year of a shot in the dark like Gray is pretty ridiculous no matter what the precious charts say.

Since we don't know what these GMs have been tasked with by their ownership, using the charts is only helpful part of the time - and those discussions are great - but I've never been interested in being the one trying to set some arbitrary value on prospects. They don't need Gray and/or Frazier, we don't need all these arms - slice it up whatever way makes you happy. It's always funny to read the posts trashing Dipoto for not following those precious charts to the letter. He was interviewed earlier today and admitted he was specifically tasked with slashing future payroll this winter and mentioned that the moves he's made have already saved the Mariners over $100 million so far. You think their ownership isn't happy???

Play the surplus value games all you like - those numbers have a way of being wrong as often as they're right. Those prospects have to find their way onto an MLB roster before they can start accumulating WAR, and every year you hang onto them and tuck them away in AAA is just one less year they have a chance to do that. The depth is always something worth striving for, but if it causes you to have guys like Markakis or CarGo hitting in the middle of your lineup and playing LF instead of someone like Frazier/Peralta or several others while Fried and Gohara hang out in Gwinnett or the pen you're not going very far.

14 straight division titles is absolutely great - 1 Championship over that period makes you the butt of jokes. If the vaunted Cubs and Astros don't start making a few more win-now moves soon, they (and their fans) are going to get to know just what that feels like to a point.

At this point, I have to believe that you don't understand either the SV model's methodology or purpose. Its so tough to reach that conclusion, because it has been explained ad nauseum on this board. Its unreal how much close mindedness it would take to see objective data that shows the SV model to be correct so often, and still believe that it gets it wrong "as often" as it gets it right.

I could probably do an extensive study using strict methodologies that prove the SV models to be within the margin of error 80+ percent of the time (I'm just using a random number, but its probably higher than that) and you would still disregard it because it doesn't fit whatever narrative you think makes sense.

[thewupk]

At this point, I have to believe that you don't understand either the SV model's methodology or purpose. Its so tough to reach that conclusion, because it has been explained ad nauseum on this board. Its unreal how much close mindedness it would take to see objective data that shows the SV model to be correct so often, and still believe that it gets it wrong "as often" as it gets it right.

I could probably do an extensive study using strict methodologies that prove the SV models to be within the margin of error 80+ percent of the time (I'm just using a random number, but its probably higher than that) and you would still disregard it because it doesn't fit whatever narrative you think makes sense.

It's been explained to him and others plenty of times. At this point he is being purposely obtuse.

[Heyward]

Passan- The Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds are finalizing a significant trade, league sources tell Yahoo Sports. Multiple major league pieces expected to change sides.

[Freshmaker]

innnnnnnnteresting

[TheRunningAgent]

Passan- The Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds are finalizing a significant trade, league sources tell Yahoo Sports. Multiple major league pieces expected to change sides.

Ruh roh

[UNCBlue012]

Ruh roh

The Dodgers are probably clearing payroll for... Harper.

[The Chosen One]

Sounds like Alex Wood going to Reds. Peraza to Dodgers.

[Heyward]

The Dodgers are probably clearing payroll for... Harper.

In the rumored deal, it was that they take back Homer Bailey. But i'm pretty interested in all thats going where, LA doesnt lose trades often under Friedman.

[UNCBlue012]

Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig and Alex Wood have been traded to the Cincinnati Reds, league sources tell Yahoo Sports. Homer Bailey is one of the players going back to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The return for the Dodgers clearly will be more.



DAMN!!!

[Heyward]

HOLY ****

Passan- Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig and Alex Wood have been traded to the Cincinnati Reds, league sources tell Yahoo Sports. Homer Bailey is one of the players going back to the Los Angeles Dodgers. The return for the Dodgers clearly will be more.

[UNCBlue012]

Random guy on Twitter:

Per sources, the deal will be:

To CIN: Kemp, Wood, Puig
To LAD: Bailey, RHP Josiah Gray, INF Jeter Downs.

[Freshmaker]

Well there goes one of our potential OF targets

[drewdat]

Yep, hate missing out on Kemp

[UNCBlue012]

Two outfielders in the trade? Hello Bryce to LA.