2018 Offseason And Targets

[zbhargrove]

I'd probably prefer bringing Markakis back at 6m then giving up anything of note for Joey Gallo.

So you prefer a 36 year old obviously declining who projects to 1 to 1.5 WAR over a 25 year old with lots of potential still that is projected to put up 3+ WAR?

[Super]

I'd probably prefer bringing Markakis back at 6m then giving up anything of note for Joey Gallo.

that's kind of silly. gallo is easily the better players, far younger, with more cheap control. he's way more valuable. i don't care how he gets to his 3 WAR.

[nsacpi]

Newcomb for Gallo (or Kepler)

Trade for Gray

Rotation of Folty, Gausman, Gray, Teheran, Fried (or Gohara or Soroka)

lots of ways to square this circle...AA has plenty of options...i hope he is patient and looks for value...i'm indifferent as to details as long as he makes good value deals

for those who want to keep Newcomb, we can put together other packages involving one or more of Wright, Teheran, Fried, Wilson, Touki, Wentz and Muller...i would try to hold on to Gohara, Soroka and Anderson

[zbhargrove]

It's old fashioned maybe, but I want no part of someone who reliably strikes out 35% of the time and gets on base less than 1/3 of the time.

The idea of paying through the nose for that in prospects makes me want to throw up a bit.

You are obviously old fashioned in the way you evaluate players... probably love the ole' eyeball test too

[zbhargrove]

It's old fashioned maybe, but I want no part of someone who reliably strikes out 35% of the time and gets on base less than 1/3 of the time.

The idea of paying through the nose for that in prospects makes me want to throw up a bit.

And our number 1 prospect in basically a 30% K rate guy... how many times does that go down when the player moves up to the MLB? Are you a Riley fan?

[zbhargrove]

Newcomb for Gallo (or Kepler)

Trade for Gray

Rotation of Folty, Gausman, Gray, Teheran, Fried (or Gohara or Soroka)

lots of ways to square this circle...AA has plenty of options...i hope he is patient and looks for value...i'm indifferent as to details as long as he makes good value deals

for those who want to keep Newcomb, we can put together other packages involving one or more of Wright, Teheran, Fried, Wilson, Touki, Wentz and Muller...i would try to hold on to Gohara, Soroka and Anderson

I'd do Newcomb for Gallo and I think the Rangers would too (depending on their opinion of Newcomb obviously)... pick up Gray for cheap (maybe we can even get Frazier in the deal keeping it rather cheap giving us another option/young OF talent)... then trade Riley and a couple other good prospects for JTR... love that team

[jpx7]

If it takes half of that package to get Gallo then it would be a mistake. We have seen guys who are DH/1b with one tool get cut all the time. Why the hell would we give actual assets up for it. It is not the 90s. 40 homers and 250 Ks is not the player I want to commit a ****load of resources too.

He’s not exactly one-tool: the power is the big tool, by far, but his bb-rate is very solid, the impact is just submerged thanks to his low AVG. He’s also generally graded out better as a fielder in the OF than at 1B or 3B (where he’s not very good).

[Carp]

what do you project for markakis next year?

OPS in the low .700's. Bad defense. Basically what he was in 2017.

[Super]

OPS in the low .700's. Bad defense. Basically what he was in 2017.

that's what he's very likely to be, and it will hurt to see him in LF if other positions like catcher or SP aren't heavily upgraded (for good value).

[Carp]

It's old fashioned maybe, but I want no part of someone who reliably strikes out 35% of the time and gets on base less than 1/3 of the time.

The idea of paying through the nose for that in prospects makes me want to throw up a bit.

Yep. If he was an elite defender, it might be different. But what exactly can you get from Gallo that you can't get from Joc Pederson (and likely for not even half that package)? May be 5-10 more homers when adjusting for parks?

[Carp]

I'd probably prefer bringing Markakis back at 6m then giving up anything of note for Joey Gallo.

I agree. Unless it's a package highlighted by Ynoa or A-Jax or something similar, then don't even bother with Gallo. Several better options available who wouldn't cost half as much as the one discussed here.

[zbhargrove]

Yep. If he was an elite defender, it might be different. But what exactly can you get from Gallo that you can't get from Joc Pederson (and likely for not even half that package)? May be 5-10 more homers when adjusting for parks?

Well that proposed package was ludicrous... and Gallo will be much more than 5-10 homers... he's hit 40 two years in a row. Pederson has never hit more than 26

Do you realize how special a ~.300 ISO is in the majors? And he's only 25 and has only experienced one organizational staff... even a tiny tweak could change him tremendously.

Also, he's basically the same solid player against lefties or righties... Joc couldn't hit a lefty if his life depended on it...

[zbhargrove]

He’s not exactly one-tool: the power is the big tool, by far, but his bb-rate is very solid, the impact is just submerged thanks to his low AVG. He’s also generally graded out better as a fielder in the OF than at 1B or 3B (where he’s not very good).

^This

[thewupk]

His career BABIP is .317, not .304. His full season BABIP in 2018 was .318.

I think 1st half / 2nd half is somewhat arbitrary, but sure. Reality is that he was bad in August/September, a two month sample corresponding to the point in time when older veterans generally show decline. Saying that is the real Markakis when for the most part it was well below even recent season norms is not really a fair comment.

I'd like to hear more about how his second half peripherals reverted to career norms. Which ones are you referring to?

Players generally enter a decline phase when they get to Necks age. Just looking at his numbers with the Braves.

2015: 106 WRC+
2016: 98 WRC+
2017: 93 WRC+
2018 2nd half: 88 WRC+

There is a pattern here. One in which his 2018 1st half should be completely dismissed.

If I had to guess I would suspect he puts up a WRC+ in the mid 90s in 2018. He's a well below average player at this point.

[Super]

Well that proposed package was ludicrous... and Gallo will be much more than 5-10 homers... he's hit 40 two years in a row. Pederson has never hit more than 26

Do you realize how special a ~.300 ISO is in the majors? And he's only 25 and has only experienced one organizational staff... even a tiny tweak could change him tremendously.

Also, he's basically the same solid player against lefties or righties... Joc couldn't hit a lefty if his life depended on it...

yeah, gallo isn't a liability against lefties or righties. pederson basically has to be platooned.

[BeanieAntics]

He’s not exactly one-tool: the power is the big tool, by far, but his bb-rate is very solid, the impact is just submerged thanks to his low AVG. He’s also generally graded out better as a fielder in the OF than at 1B or 3B (where he’s not very good).

Gallo is anything but a one tool player. People have severe misconceptions about his outfield defense. He is perfectly average out there with a plus plus arm that probably makes his defense slightly above average.

As far as Newcomb for Gallo goes, I think we'd have to add a little bit more on top of it, but I'd be down for a deal like that.

[BeanieAntics]

Well that proposed package was ludicrous... and Gallo will be much more than 5-10 homers... he's hit 40 two years in a row. Pederson has never hit more than 26

Do you realize how special a ~.300 ISO is in the majors? And he's only 25 and has only experienced one organizational staff... even a tiny tweak could change him tremendously.

Also, he's basically the same solid player against lefties or righties... Joc couldn't hit a lefty if his life depended on it...

Plus Gallo has FOUR years of control compared to only two for Pederson. Obviously that means that he'll cost more, but if we want a long term solution it'd probably be worth it for Gallo. Maybe we like our internal outfield options long term and only want to pay for two years. That'd be a reasonable path as well, in which case Peralta or Pederson would make more sense.

[Freshmaker]

I'd be up for Gallo. Hit him 5th or 6th and we've got a lot of pop in the lineup.

[Orphan Black]

I don't know that I could stomach Gallo. 60% of his ABs end in K, BB, or homerun with more than half of those being K (k'd at a greater and 1 out of 3 rate).

[Freshmaker]