2018 Offseason And Targets

[bravesfanforlife88]

It would be nice if he signed early. Kind of sets the market early and one less big fish for everyone to wait around on

[CyYoung31]

I sure hope Harper resigns. That would be good news for the rest of the NL East, hell, all of baseball really.

[salmagundy]

For many the favorite time of the baseball year.

Dates of importance

1 day after WS ends, players can begin filing for Free Agency. The conclusion of the fall classic also starts the clock on a five-day "quiet period" where teams can negotiate exclusively with their own free agents, but are prohibited from signing anybody.

At the end of the "quiet period," clubs must decide whether or not to extend one-year qualifying offers to free agents. The qualifying offer was $17.4 million last year and will likely be around $18 million this offseason.

The day after the five-day quiet period, free agents are allowed to sign with any club, kicking off free agency in the traditional sense.

Nov. 5, 2018: BBWAA Awards Finalists announced. The top three finalists in each of the BBWAA's four major awards categories will be revealed on MLB Network.

Nov. 6, 2018: Rawlings Gold Glove Award winners announced.


Nov. 6-8, 2018: General Managers' meetings, Carlsbad, Calif.

Nov. 12, 2018: Rookies of the Year announced.

Nov. 13, 2018: Managers of the Year announced.

Nov. 14, 2018: Cy Young Awards announced.

Nov. 15, 2018: MVP Awards announced.

Nov. TBA, 2018: Deadline for free agents to accept qualifying offer (15 days after World Series ends).

Nov. 30, 2018: Non-tender deadline (last day for teams to offer 2019 contracts to unsigned players on their 40-man rosters).

Dec. 9-13, 2018: MLB Winter Meetings, Las Vegas.

Dec. 13, 2018: Rule 5 Draft. Teams can choose non-exempt players from other clubs' minor league systems, but those players must remain on the selecting team's 25-man roster for the duration of the season, or be offered back to their original club.

Jan. 11, 2019: Players and teams exchange salary Arbitration figures.

Feb. 1-20, 2019: Arbitration hearings, St. Petersburg, Fla.

And then ST and regular season to begin
.

[Southcack77]

I just don't see how it is reasonable for us to avoid getting more bench depth. Its such a clear weakness and its very exploitable with our current lineup given the fact we have numerous starters with platoon splits. We need more flexibility in how we deploy our lineup and that is exactly what Gonzalez brings to the table. It would be even more imperative if we decide to trade for a platoon heavy outfielder like, say, Joc Pederson. Or even someone like David Peralta. Instead of deploying two lefties with bad splits in our lineup against a LHP, we could break that up occasionally and start Gonzalez. The same would apply to Ozzie, Dansby, and Camargo on the infield. If we run in to any undesirable matchups, deploy Gonzalez.

I really like him because of that, but if we don't go after him then we still need to make an addition to help the bench. Walker would be good. Descalso, Cabrera, Lamb, etc.... There are other options that we could decide to go after that would be cheaper. But none have the balance or versatility that Gonzalez brings. But maybe you could offset that by signing two of those lower tier guys that could combine to achieve a similar goal.

Braves have good bench players starting right now. Pay for outperformance, not for someone who can be average everywhere and great nowhere.

[nsacpi]

Braves have good bench players starting right now. Pay for outperformance, not for someone who can be average everywhere and great nowhere.

I think the prudent course is to develop the star players. The core. And use payroll flexibility to surround that core with solid performers so that we have a very deep team. Deep depth is the way to go.

Our homegrown core as I see it: Freeman, Acuna, Albies.

We also need to be patient in giving the pitchers time to develop. I'm not in favor of seeking out a Magical TOR via free agency or trade. Big budget teams can do that. We shouldn't even try. Would not be prudent. As it is, Folty took some promising steps in that direction this past season.

[Southcack77]

I think the prudent course is to develop the star players. The core. And use payroll flexibility to surround that core with solid performers so that we have a very deep team. Deep depth is the way to go.

Our homegrown core as I see it: Freeman, Acuna, Albies.

We also need to be patient in giving the pitchers time to develop. I'm not in favor of seeking out a Magical TOR via free agency or trade. Big budget teams can do that. We shouldn't even try. Would not be prudent. As it is, Folty took some promising steps in that direction this past season.

I am willing to concede that the Braves best move might be to do very little, but I don't think that does much for their chances of winning a championship any time soon.

I also don't think adding someone that can be expected to be average in most situations particularly moves the needle. Is such a player useful depth? Sure. Is that player worth 1/4 or 1 1/5 of the Braves offseason spending? I don't think so.

Being the high bidder there probably means you've overpaid for average performance. Otherwise why would the Astros not re-sign him. He's getting 400 ABs for them. They obviously have a sense of his value. IF they're not going to pay him, is it wise for the Braves to do it?

Might the Braves eventually produce TOR talent? Sure. Is TOR of the rotation talent overrated to begin with? I don't always think so, but possibly. Should the Braves spend a lot of resources acquiring one...sort of depends in my view. What's the rest of the offseason going to look like? What's the cost?

I don't think it's a matter of being a big budget team vs a medium market team though. It's a matter of where you are in the contention window and what you are giving up. I would not see the point in spending a ton of resources on DeGrom, for example, if you weren't also spending big on addressing the other weaknesses on the team.

On the other hand, if you can acquire Bumgarner for something relatively modest. Then ok. It just depends. If it's Allard why not? I don't think it would be, but sure. If it's someone the org isn't high on. Do it. That is a move that has a non-zero chance of making you a much better team even if it not the favorite. And if you can increase your odds of winning a championship without parting with anything painful then you should do it. Even if it doesn't make you the favorite or it is only a short term impact.

[clvclv]

The most interesting question of the morning is did AA have offer sheets for 1 year/$5 million delivered to Zook's reps and 1 year/$8 million delivered to Markakis' reps at 9 AM this morning?

[Southcack77]

I feel like the Braves have a solid amount of present day, near MLB ready pitching talent that they can reasonably deal from.

I think one way of cutting down on the gross cost of acquiring above average talent is focusing on guys on expiring deals.

AA says he likes to get back control, but I think at certain positions: catcher, starting rotation, third base, the organization isn't necessarily in need of long term answers.

I'm not really prepared to put a realistic picture together of a Braves offseason, but a fantasy picture that I might be happy with is something like:

Bumgarner or Wheeler
Josh Donaldson
Michael Brantley
Francisco Cervelli

Couple of relievers from the Ottavino, Romo, Holland, Rosenthal, etc list. Something below full price closer.

Maybe you give up Allard, Weigel, Joey Wentz and some filler in those acquisitions, but you shouldn't really have to pay that much for an expiring deal. If you do, you walk away from it and I guess that is where my list is fantasy.

[clvclv]

I am willing to concede that the Braves best move might be to do very little, but I don't think that does much for their chances of winning a championship any time soon.

I also don't think adding someone that can be expected to be average in most situations particularly moves the needle. Is such a player useful depth? Sure. Is that player worth 1/4 or 1 1/5 of the Braves offseason spending? I don't think so.

Being the high bidder there probably means you've overpaid for average performance. Otherwise why would the Astros not re-sign him. He's getting 400 ABs for them. They obviously have a sense of his value. IF they're not going to pay him, is it wise for the Braves to do it?

Might the Braves eventually produce TOR talent? Sure. Is TOR of the rotation talent overrated to begin with? I don't always think so, but possibly. Should the Braves spend a lot of resources acquiring one...sort of depends in my view. What's the rest of the offseason going to look like? What's the cost?

I don't think it's a matter of being a big budget team vs a medium market team though. It's a matter of where you are in the contention window and what you are giving up. I would not see the point in spending a ton of resources on DeGrom, for example, if you weren't also spending big on addressing the other weaknesses on the team.

On the other hand, if you can acquire Bumgarner for something relatively modest. Then ok. It just depends. If it's Allard why not? I don't think it would be, but sure. If it's someone the org isn't high on. Do it. That is a move that has a non-zero chance of making you a much better team even if it not the favorite. And if you can increase your odds of winning a championship without parting with anything painful then you should do it. Even if it doesn't make you the favorite or it is only a short term impact.

The only problem I have with this is that you're counting on things that aren't very good gambles.

You say "the Braves have good/solid bench players". Who are they? As of today, Camargo is the starting 3B, meaning he's not part of the bench. For now, Flowers is the starting Catcher, so he's not one either. I love Charlie as much as everyone else does, but he's coming off of his career year, and (to borrow from your argument about Gonzalez) the Dodgers thought so little of him that they threw him in in the Kemp deal to give themselves an extra roster spot to work with.

Even if Riley eventually pushes Camargo into a utility role and another Catcher is signed to at the very least make Flowers a part-timer, AA still has to sign or trade for a corner OFer to replace Markakis (assuming he's not re-signed).

It takes two to tango trade-wise, and there's no guarantee he lands that OF or Catcher without spending market-value dollars. Adding a really solid bench piece that can play everywhere means you might be able to get away with another year of Markakis because there's no dropoff when he sits. Same thing at 3B if Gonzalez fills-in for Johan.

Again, this has nothing to do with wanting to spend just because the money's there - but counting on Culberson to replicate his 2018 when he's never been able to other than for 427 ABs in Colorado Springs is just begging for a letdown.

[clvclv]

Duplicate.

[nsacpi]

I feel like the Braves have a solid amount of present day, near MLB ready pitching talent that they can reasonably deal from.

I think one way of cutting down on the gross cost of acquiring above average talent is focusing on guys on expiring deals.

AA says he likes to get back control, but I think at certain positions: catcher, starting rotation, third base, the organization isn't necessarily in need of long term answers.

I'm not really prepared to put a realistic picture together of a Braves offseason, but a fantasy picture that I might be happy with is something like:

Bumgarner or Wheeler
Josh Donaldson
Michael Brantley
Francisco Cervelli

Couple of relievers from the Ottavino, Romo, Holland, Rosenthal, etc list. Something below full price closer.

Maybe you give up Allard, Weigel, Joey Wentz and some filler in those acquisitions, but you shouldn't really have to pay that much for an expiring deal. If you do, you walk away from it and I guess that is where my list is fantasy.

I like this strategy in general. Less years of control and less expected surplus value helps to hold down the amount of prospect capital we have to fork over. As a corollary, I like this strategy even more at the trading deadline. For someone like Bumgarner his performance in the first half will reveal something about his health and form. Of course it could increase the price if he has a great first half.

[Nerfherders]

The more I think about, and the more I watched the playoffs, the more I think we should just pony up the money for Harper. Yes, it's going to be alot of money, but he as a player is EXACTLY what the Braves need. It sets the entire offense. With him in the lineup, all the nibbling around the offense at the edges (catcher, bench bat, etc) means ALOT less.

[Southcack77]

The only problem I have with this is that you're counting on things that aren't very good gambles.

You say "the Braves have good/solid bench players". Who are they? As of today, Camargo is the starting 3B, meaning he's not part of the bench. For now, Flowers is the starting Catcher, so he's not one either. I love Charlie as much as everyone else does, but he's coming off of his career year, and (to borrow from your argument about Gonzalez) the Dodgers thought so little of him that they threw him in in the Kemp deal to give themselves an extra roster spot to work with.

Even if Riley eventually pushes Camargo into a utility role and another Catcher is signed to at the very least make Flowers a part-timer, AA still has to sign or trade for a corner OFer to replace Markakis (assuming he's not re-signed).

It takes two to tango trade-wise, and there's no guarantee he lands that OF or Catcher without spending market-value dollars. Adding a really solid bench piece that can play everywhere means you might be able to get away with another year of Markakis because there's no dropoff when he sits. Same thing at 3B if Gonzalez fills-in for Johan.

Again, this has nothing to do with wanting to spend just because the money's there - but counting on Culberson to replicate his 2018 when he's never been able to other than for 427 ABs in Colorado Springs is just begging for a letdown.

I think Camargo, Flowers, and probably Inciarte would be best used as bench players. At the moment, they certainly are the best the Braves have at their spots, but that might change over the next few months. Inciarte is a little pricey as a 4th OF due to what I think was not a wise extension, but there you have it.

I'm not high on Culberson, but he's super cheap, which distinguishes him from Marwin Gonzalez at 8m. Gonzalez is of course the better player.

I completely agree that Bumgarner, Cervelli, Brantley, Donaldson are gambles and could not pan out. But three of those would come with relatively little long term risk and the potential upside is really big. All Star level at the minimum. So to me there is a difference in a gamble and a bad gamble.

I'm least comfortable with a potential three year commitment to Brantley (you can sub in Pollack or McCutcheon or your favorite of the rest here if you like) but am persuaded that the downside might only be 13m AAV, which I see as a wager you could potentially stand to lose over that time frame.

[Chico]

I like this strategy in general. Less years of control and less expected surplus value helps to hold down the amount of prospect capital we have to fork over. As a corollary, I like this strategy even more at the trading deadline. For someone like Bumgarner his performance in the first half will reveal something about his health and form. Of course it could increase the price if he has a great first half.

I think if you go after someone like Bum, then you do it this offseason so you can offer a QO next season if he balls out and scoop up a pick.

[salmagundy]

My likes are Corbin, Grandal, Peralta, with backups Pollock and Marwin, Bumgarner.

I have not seen the fact that McCarthy,s salary comes off the books when he decides to join FA or retire included in payroll reduction figures. If any of those listed, then Zuk and Markakis come off the books. The addition of Corbin would facilitate the trade of Newk, Julio, and any number of other pitching prospects to land Peralta or other trade piece.

[UNCBlue012]

The more I think about, and the more I watched the playoffs, the more I think we should just pony up the money for Harper. Yes, it's going to be alot of money, but he as a player is EXACTLY what the Braves need. It sets the entire offense. With him in the lineup, all the nibbling around the offense at the edges (catcher, bench bat, etc) means ALOT less.

I think I’m one of the few people who agree with you. Haha

[Chico]

My likes are Corbin, Grandal, Peralta, with backups Pollock and Marwin, Bumgarner.

I have not seen the fact that McCarthy,s salary comes off the books when he decides to join FA or retire included in payroll reduction figures. If any of those listed, then Zuk and Markakis come off the books. The addition of Corbin would facilitate the trade of Newk, Julio, and any number of other pitching prospects to land Peralta or other trade piece.

I think Corbin is the most likely to be overpaid this offseason.

[clvclv]

I think Camargo, Flowers, and probably Inciarte would be best used as bench players. At the moment, they certainly are the best the Braves have at their spots, but that might change over the next few months. Inciarte is a little pricey as a 4th OF due to what I think was not a wise extension, but there you have it.

I'm not high on Culberson, but he's super cheap, which distinguishes him from Marwin Gonzalez at 8m. Gonzalez is of course the better player.

I completely agree that Bumgarner, Cervelli, Brantley, Donaldson are gambles and could not pan out. But three of those would come with relatively little long term risk and the potential upside is really big. All Star level at the minimum. So to me there is a difference in a gamble and a bad gamble.

I'm least comfortable with a potential three year commitment to Brantley (you can sub in Pollack or McCutcheon or your favorite of the rest here if you like) but am persuaded that the downside might only be 13m AAV, which I see as a wager you could potentially stand to lose over that time frame.

Again, this is the point I'm trying to make. A Gonzalez signing would be paid for in huge part by walking away from Duvall (who would become useless with Gonzalez, Culberson, and potentially Camargo at some point as backup OFs), Freeman, Ramirez, and Lindgren. That's $5.9 million they're already likely purging to begin with. If you earmark those funds to pay for the upgrade to the bench that Gonzalez would provide, you're only adding a little over $2 million in salary (which incidentally is only $600,000 more than Culberson's projected to earn in 2019). Signing Gonzalez also allows you to eventually replace Charlie with a much stronger player in Camargo - even if it's not until 2020 - when Culberson will begin to get more expensive. Then your 2020 bench becomes Flowers (if A-Jax or Contreras isn't ready), Gonzalez, Camargo, and possibly Pache.

[Southcack77]

Again, this is the point I'm trying to make. A Gonzalez signing would be paid for in huge part by walking away from Duvall (who would become useless with Gonzalez, Culberson, and potentially Camargo at some point as backup OFs), Freeman, Ramirez, and Lindgren. That's $5.9 million they're already likely purging to begin with. If you earmark those funds to pay for the upgrade to the bench with Gonzalez would provide, you're only adding a little over $2 million in salary (which incidentally is only $600,000 more than Culberson's projected to earn in 2019). Signing Gonzalez also allows you to eventually replace Charlie with a much stronger player in Camargo - even if it's not until 2020 - when Culberson will begin to get more expensive. Then your 2020 bench becomes Flowers (if A-Jax or Contreras isn't ready), Gonzalez, Camargo, and possibly Pache.

I think whether you should give Gonzalez 3/24m is separate from the issue of whether you can.

I see the argument for using him as protection for whatever older OF the Braves end up signing getting injured. Say you sign Brantley for 3/39m. Then you add Gonzalez at 3/24. You've spent 21m for three years making yourself comfortable in the OF.

I think maybe you can protect yourself from injury and give yourself bench help without that big an outlay in years if not money. Maybe not.

[nsacpi]

taking into account difference in cost I would try for Walker before turning to Gonzalez