2018 Offseason And Targets

[CrazyTrain]

Whoever said that we can win without quality starting pitching? Bumgarner was just a league average pitcher last year. Hasn't been a true ace since 2016 and has declined each year since. That isn't a guy that worth ~40-50M in surplus value. Not to mention, he's not a guy that the Braves should extend and pay 25M+ annually. 5 years of Fried and 4 years of Newk (at essentially league minimum) is more valuable than 1 year of a 29 year old Bumgarner at 12M. It's not close.

You also mentioned signing Maddux and Hudson signings. The braves had a top 5 payroll in the 90s. To get a top 5 payroll today, a team must have a payroll of at least 170 Million. Something tells me that the Braves won't have anywhere close to that number in 2019 and beyond. Hudson was traded to the Braves and didn't cost much in prospect capital or hurt the team financially. Both examples don't apply to Bumgarner. If Bumgarner can be had at a reasonable cost, I wouldn't be against it.

But if AA trades Newk/Fried for Bumgarner, he should be fired immediately. If he trades for Soroka/Riley for Grienke, he shouldn't ever be employed by another baseball organization ever again.

These suggestions are mind-boggling. The Braves have massive holes at Catcher and RF. Those need to be addresses immediately. Our entire rebuild has been focused on pitching. It would be so deflating to then use EVEN MORE resources to obtain even more highly volatile pitchers. That is how windows are closed way before they should be. The Braves don't need superstars at every position and I actually trust AA to make the right move. So far, he has been a great GM. Just hope that streak continues this offseason and beyond.

You're right on a lot of things here, but just because our entire rebuild was focused on pitching, does not mean we did a good job of acquiring good pitchers. Newk/Fried are only worth what we can deal for them. I don't know how you go about determining value, but two guys with 4+ ERAs aren't as valuable as a guy who should be in the low 3's for even 5-6 more years.

[Enscheff]

Whoever said that we can win without quality starting pitching? Bumgarner was just a league average pitcher last year. Hasn't been a true ace since 2016 and has declined each year since. That isn't a guy that worth ~40-50M in surplus value. Not to mention, he's not a guy that the Braves should extend and pay 25M+ annually. 5 years of Fried and 4 years of Newk (at essentially league minimum) is more valuable than 1 year of a 29 year old Bumgarner at 12M. It's not close.

You also mentioned signing Maddux and Hudson signings. The braves had a top 5 payroll in the 90s. To get a top 5 payroll today, a team must have a payroll of at least 170 Million. Something tells me that the Braves won't have anywhere close to that number in 2019 and beyond. Hudson was traded to the Braves and didn't cost much in prospect capital or hurt the team financially. Both examples don't apply to Bumgarner. If Bumgarner can be had at a reasonable cost, I wouldn't be against it.

But if AA trades Newk/Fried for Bumgarner, he should be fired immediately. If he trades for Soroka/Riley for Grienke, he shouldn't ever be employed by another baseball organization ever again.

These suggestions are mind-boggling. The Braves have massive holes at Catcher and RF. Those need to be addresses immediately. Our entire rebuild has been focused on pitching. It would be so deflating to then use EVEN MORE resources to obtain even more highly volatile pitchers. That is how windows are closed way before they should be. The Braves don't need superstars at every position and I actually trust AA to make the right move. So far, he has been a great GM. Just hope that streak continues this offseason and beyond.

An intelligent poster emerges. Welcome!

[thewupk]

You're right on a lot of things here, but just because our entire rebuild was focused on pitching, does not mean we did a good job of acquiring good pitchers. Newk/Fried are only worth what we can deal for them. I don't know how you go about determining value, but two guys with 4+ ERAs aren't as valuable as a guy who should be in the low 3's for even 5-6 more years.

Fried had a 2.94 era this year....

[UNCBlue012]

Fried had a 2.94 era this year....

And a 3.32 career ERA, but it doesn't matter anyways.

[Southcack77]

Whoever said that we can win without quality starting pitching? Bumgarner was just a league average pitcher last year. Hasn't been a true ace since 2016 and has declined each year since. That isn't a guy that worth ~40-50M in surplus value. Not to mention, he's not a guy that the Braves should extend and pay 25M+ annually. 5 years of Fried and 4 years of Newk (at essentially league minimum) is more valuable than 1 year of a 29 year old Bumgarner at 12M. It's not close.

You also mentioned signing Maddux and Hudson signings. The braves had a top 5 payroll in the 90s. To get a top 5 payroll today, a team must have a payroll of at least 170 Million. Something tells me that the Braves won't have anywhere close to that number in 2019 and beyond. Hudson was traded to the Braves and didn't cost much in prospect capital or hurt the team financially. Both examples don't apply to Bumgarner. If Bumgarner can be had at a reasonable cost, I wouldn't be against it.

But if AA trades Newk/Fried for Bumgarner, he should be fired immediately. If he trades for Soroka/Riley for Grienke, he shouldn't ever be employed by another baseball organization ever again.

These suggestions are mind-boggling. The Braves have massive holes at Catcher and RF. Those need to be addresses immediately. Our entire rebuild has been focused on pitching. It would be so deflating to then use EVEN MORE resources to obtain even more highly volatile pitchers. That is how windows are closed way before they should be. The Braves don't need superstars at every position and I actually trust AA to make the right move. So far, he has been a great GM. Just hope that streak continues this offseason and beyond.

out of curiosity which metric are you using for the proposition that Bumgarner is a league average pitcher?

[CrazyTrain]

out of curiosity which metric are you using for the proposition that Bumgarner is a league average pitcher?

Certainly not WAR, since he had 2.4 last year.

[CrazyTrain]

Fried had a 2.94 era this year....

He also had a 1.36 WHIP, which is terrible and a better indicator of how good a pitcher is anyway.

[Enscheff]

out of curiosity which metric are you using for the proposition that Bumgarner is a league average pitcher?

His FIP- of 104, WAR of 1.4, and .319 xwOBA are pretty clear indicators...

[Enscheff]

Certainly not WAR, since he had 2.4 last year.

Ahh, conveniently quoting bWAR rather than fWAR.

Tell me, what is the difference between the 2, and why do you favor bWAR over fWAR for pitchers?

[Enscheff]

Certainly not WAR, since he had 2.4 last year.

Ahh, conveniently quoting bWAR rather than fWAR.

Tell me, what is the difference between the 2, and why do you favor bWAR over fWAR for pitchers?

[CrazyTrain]

Ahh, conveniently quoting bWAR rather than fWAR.

Tell me, what is the difference between the 2, and why do you favor bWAR over fWAR for pitchers?

bwar uses RA9 and fwar uses FIP. I used bwar b/c I had BR open.

[Southcack77]

His FIP- of 104, WAR of 1.4, and .319 xwOBA are pretty clear indicators...

And yet his ERA- is 84 and 79. And his bWAR corresponded to what those actual results were, which are decidedly above average.

It's pretty well known that some pitchers can consistently outperform FIP. Perhaps Bumgarner will continue his career norm of doing so.

I would question whether he is still a TOR starter, but I do not particularly question that he's likely to be above average and that he has the upside of being much better if his walk rate spike or K decline has been influenced by nagging injury that may have resolved. There is some risk he will go the other way or simply be shut down, but it's a relatively small gamble depending on the cost of acquisition.

I frankly doubt the Giants move him this winter and he's likely not to be a Braves target at the deadline.

.......

I don't have a great deal of use for Fried. I think the folks who talk about him like he's Josh Hader or a great rotation piece sort of missed the whole part where Josh Hader reliably gets good hitters out every time he takes the mound. Fried does not.

I like Newk as a cheap guy with legit no hit stuff that might one day put a full season together like his first half. Or not.

I would not trade both of them for Bumgarner, but I would certainly be willing to sell either one of those guys in the right deal.

[bravesfanforlife88]

In an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today (Twitter link, with audio), agent Jeff Berry of CAA Baseball told host Scott Braun that Realmuto “has informed the Marlins’ ownership, he’s informed their front office he’s not going to sign an extension in Miami.” Berry also indicated that he thinks Realmuto “will definitely be wearing a different uniform” by Spring Training 2019.

[DontStopTheChop]

out of curiosity which metric are you using for the proposition that Bumgarner is a league average pitcher?

Mainly, FIP. But there are several that metrics that show that he was average this past season and hasn’t been a true ace since 16.

[CrazyTrain]

mainly FIP. But there are several metrics where Bumgarner graded out pretty average.

The abbreviated season probably didn't help.

[Enscheff]

bwar uses RA9 and fwar uses FIP. I used bwar b/c I had BR open.

So...what does that difference imply about assigning credit to the pitcher vs the defenders? Why do you think one is more correct than others?

[DontStopTheChop]

You're right on a lot of things here, but just because our entire rebuild was focused on pitching, does not mean we did a good job of acquiring good pitchers. Newk/Fried are only worth what we can deal for them. I don't know how you go about determining value, but two guys with 4+ ERAs aren't as valuable as a guy who should be in the low 3's for even 5-6 more years.

Your point that we may not have done a good job of acquiring good pitchers may be true. It’s too early to tell. (IMO that’s another reason to NOT trade them and sell low).

But, you lost me after your first point. Bumgarner is clearly on a decline and your using ERAs to determine a player’s value. There’s way more to it than that. Contractual control and salary are huge aspects that you aren’t considering.

Do you really have think that Madison Bumgarner at 29 with 1 year of contractual control at 12M is more valuable than 9 combined years of control of Fried/Newk at league minimum/arbitration?

[CrazyTrain]

Your point that we may not have done a good job of acquiring good pitchers may be true. It’s too early to tell. (IMO that’s another reason to NOT trade them and sell low).

But, you lost me after your first point. Bumgarner is clearly on a decline and your using ERAs to determine a player’s value. There’s way more to it than that. Contractual control and salary are huge aspects that you aren’t considering.

Do you really have think that Madison Bumgarner at 29 with one year of contractual control at 12M is more valuable than 9 years of combined years of control of Fried/Newk at league minimum/arbitration?

I used ERA only as a matter of convenience to describe their competence as a pitcher.

I used their names only because I don't think they are long term contributors and would prefer to get something of value for them before they become Matt Wisler/Aaron Blair/etc...

[thewupk]

He also had a 1.36 WHIP, which is terrible and a better indicator of how good a pitcher is anyway.

FIP is an even better indicator

[DontStopTheChop]

I used ERA only as a matter of convenience to describe their competence as a pitcher.

I used their names only because I don't think they are long term contributors and would prefer to get something of value for them before they become Matt Wisler/Aaron Blair/etc...

So is that a yes? That 1 year of Bumgarner is more valuable than the combined value of Newk/Fried?