In an attempt to project a hitter's production, we have to separate real skill from luck. Once we have established real repeatable skills for a player, the values describing those skills can be translated into expected future production.
What are considered real repeatable skill values for these projections?
K% - part of a player's hitting profile
BB% - part of a player's hitting profile
FB% - part of a player's hitting profile
GB% - part of a player's hitting profile
LD% - part of a player's hitting profile
Pull% - part of a player's hitting profile
Hard% - part of a player's hitting profile
2B% - some combination of a player's hitting profile and speed
FB/LD Exit Velocities and Barrels per Batted Ball - these have a correlation to HR/FB of 0.769 and 0.824: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/batter-hr-fb-rate-and-statcast-metrics-a-history/
The values of the last 3 full seasons will be used for these inputs (exit velocities will only be 2018 data). In cases where a player doesn't have a full season of MLB data (500+ PAs), I will make a best estimate based on game data trends.
After those values are determined, things like xBABIP, HR/FB, BA, OBP, SLG and HRs can be calculated. The xBABIP value will be calculated based on this formula: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/gettin-shifty-with-it-introducing-the-new-xbabip/
First up, Freddie Freeman. Usually I will split these projections up vs LHP and RHP, but since Freeman is guaranteed to play everyday, his splits aren't of any real concern (plus this post is already long).
2018 Brls/PA% = 6.5% (72 of 332)
2018 FB/LD EV = 93.7 (100 of 332)
Those values correspond to a HR/FB rate of 15.9%-17.5%, so the midpoint of 16.7% will be used.
The resulting 2019 projection for Freddie Freeman:
600 PAs, .353 BABIP, .307 BA, .389 OBP, .512 SLG, .901 OPS, 22 HRs, 37 2B
None of this should some as a surprise. Freeman has proven to be a consistent middle of the order beast, and I expect him to continue as such in 2019.
What are considered real repeatable skill values for these projections?
K% - part of a player's hitting profile
BB% - part of a player's hitting profile
FB% - part of a player's hitting profile
GB% - part of a player's hitting profile
LD% - part of a player's hitting profile
Pull% - part of a player's hitting profile
Hard% - part of a player's hitting profile
2B% - some combination of a player's hitting profile and speed
FB/LD Exit Velocities and Barrels per Batted Ball - these have a correlation to HR/FB of 0.769 and 0.824: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/batter-hr-fb-rate-and-statcast-metrics-a-history/
The values of the last 3 full seasons will be used for these inputs (exit velocities will only be 2018 data). In cases where a player doesn't have a full season of MLB data (500+ PAs), I will make a best estimate based on game data trends.
After those values are determined, things like xBABIP, HR/FB, BA, OBP, SLG and HRs can be calculated. The xBABIP value will be calculated based on this formula: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/gettin-shifty-with-it-introducing-the-new-xbabip/
First up, Freddie Freeman. Usually I will split these projections up vs LHP and RHP, but since Freeman is guaranteed to play everyday, his splits aren't of any real concern (plus this post is already long).
2018 Brls/PA% = 6.5% (72 of 332)
2018 FB/LD EV = 93.7 (100 of 332)
Those values correspond to a HR/FB rate of 15.9%-17.5%, so the midpoint of 16.7% will be used.
The resulting 2019 projection for Freddie Freeman:
600 PAs, .353 BABIP, .307 BA, .389 OBP, .512 SLG, .901 OPS, 22 HRs, 37 2B
None of this should some as a surprise. Freeman has proven to be a consistent middle of the order beast, and I expect him to continue as such in 2019.
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