Your Ideal Offseason

[BeanieAntics]

I thought it'd be fun to explore what everyone thinks would be their version of the ideal offseason for us. To make this somewhat realistic, let's set a couple of ground rules:

1. You have a 50 million dollar budget. There have been some different opinions on how much we have to spend, ranging from 40-60 million dollars, so I just decided to split the difference and say 50.

2. You can trade away current contracts to add more payroll, but try to keep these trades realistic. No trading Teheran and getting a 50 FV prospect back or anything like that.

3. Try to keep trades in general realistic as well. It doesn't have to fit the surplus value formula perfectly, but just try to ballpark it. Its not that difficult.

4. Any Free Agent signings need to be in the ballpark of what we've seen projected so far. For example, don't sign Grandal for a 2 year 20 million dollar deal. Just be logical and make that number somewhere in the 3/50 - 3/60 range or something.

Anyway, I'm interested in seeing what some of you guys think.

[bravesfanMatt]

I don’t care to do valuations. But I think a perfect offseason is JT. Peralta. Something like Familia. And something like Walker.

I would like to keep Soroka. Pache. Touki. Wilson for sure. I want to keep one of Newk or Fried.

[BeanieAntics]

Here is what I came up with:

-Sign Grandal to a 3 year 55 million dollar contract structured as 16, 18, 21. Get the best framer in the game and a great bat, not to mention a guy who pairs well with Flowers and his offensive strengths.

-Trade Gohara, Wentz, and Derian Cruz for David Peralta and Jake Lamb. This was actually sort of a tough trade for me to valuate. I'm going off the Steamer projections for Peralta (2.6 wins next year) to assume he is worth 5 wins over the next two years. Subtract what he'll likely make in that time frame and I get a surplus value around 35 million. I think Lamb is good for another 2-3 wins over that time frame for about the same amount of money so I'll add on another 10 million. Does Gohara, Wentz, and Cruz get you to that 45 million number? Might be a little off one way or the other, but I think its pretty close.

-Sign Familia to a 2 year 23 million + 1 option year deal structured as 10, 13 with the option for 15 million and a 2 million dollar buyout. I've generally been against signing a bigger bullpen name since I think we have the pitching depth to fill out an effective bullpen. But if we could find a way to comfortably fit it into our budget, then I think I'd be okay with it. At worst Familia provides us another high leverage right hander to give us more flexibility in the 8th and 9th innings. This is my least favorite move.

-Trade Julio and Kolby Allard to the Twins for Akil Badoo. This is the weird move of my ideal offseason. I have a few reasons for it. I just think that saving Julio's 11 million dollars is more valuable to us currently than having him in the rotation. With so many young guys with upside, I have no doubt that we'd be able to comfortably fill his role with equal or better production. The reason I included Allard is because I think his value has tanked to the point where he won't be valued in any significant trades to acquire talent. I know that this is "selling low" on Allard, but I don't think his value has that great of a chance to recover. I'd try to hop off the train this offseason and dumping Teheran's salary might be the best use of Allard. Plus we'd get back an intriguing outfield prospect who is sort of a lottery ticket, but has some nice tools. This trade would be predicated on the idea that we could sell the Twins on Teheran as a solid back end guy and Allard as a someone who is worth taking on the contract for. But I don't know, maybe I'm undervaluing both of them and this is a terrible idea. Maybe we could find a trade partner who would take Teheran without the prospect attachment. If not, I would explore something along these lines.

So far we've added about ~27 million dollars in payroll, if you subtract the Teheran contract that we just dumped. I think I'd probably be satisfied with this offseason, but there is one more potential move that I'm kind of split on. On one hand, I think we could roll with the remaining rotation without any significant troubles. On the other, it sure would be nice to have this guy back on a one year deal, if possible. So if we want to make one more move I would do this:

-Sign Anibal to a 1 year 9 million dollar contract. I don't know what his market is going to look like, but if we could bring him back on a 1 year deal under 10 million dollars, I think I'd be game. He doesn't have the greatest stuff in the world, but man he was really good this past year. He was crafty enough that I think he would provide us with a steady middle of the rotation arm for minimal risk. If you can find a way to fill all the other spots in the lineup and still have room in the budget for him, I'm game.

That would put us adding about 36-38 million in payroll, depending on how much Peralta and Lamb end up making, and I think our team would look like a solid NL competitor heading into opening day. Peralta replacing Nick, Grandal being our primary catcher, Jake Lamb getting 300-400 at bats against RHP and extending our bench a good bit, Familia adding another high leverage arm, and Anibal coming back to be the crafty veteran he was last year.

[nsacpi]

First an observation: There is a tension between improving via trade and improving via FA signings. If you spend some prospect capital it allows you to stretch that $50M of payroll. At the same time, doing so costs you wins in the out years. I think it is best to have a mix. So I would try to have a mix in terms of trades and FA signings. Here is what I would do.

1) Trade with the Diamondbacks for Peralta and Lamb (this will add about 13M to payroll). I would offer Newcomb and Wentz, with the realization we might have to give up a little bit more.

2) Sign Ramos (3 years AAV of 12M)

3) Sign Soria for the pen (2 years AAV 13M)

4) Sign Anibal for the rotation (1 year for 6M)

Total add to payroll 44M

I would start the year with a rotation of Folty, Gausman, Anibal, Julion and Fried.

I would not trade Soroka or Gohara. Even though there are question marks about them (as there are for any pitching prospects), they are our two highest upside guys.

I like having a rotation of almost major league ready, highly rated prospects in AAA. They will come into play later in 2019. I would not push for Soroka and Gohara to make the team out of spring training. Ease them back into things in a controlled environment after the difficulties they had in 2018. I would also like to give Fried half a season in the rotation to see what he's got. A final opportunity as a starter before the move to the pen if it comes to that.

I would hold back a fair amount of payroll for mid-season moves. We were pretty lucky with injuries in 2018. Depth and flexibility to make moves at the deadline are likely to be important in 2019.

[BeanieAntics]

First an observation: There is a tension between improving via trade and improving via FA signings. If you spend some prospect capital it allows you to stretch that $50M of payroll. At the same time, doing so costs you wins in the out years. I think it is best to have a mix. So I would try to have a mix in terms of trades and FA signings. Here is what I would do.

1) Trade with the Diamondbacks for Peralta and Lamb (this will add about 13M to payroll). I would offer Newcomb and Wentz, with the realization we might have to give up a little bit more.

2) Sign Ramos (3 years AAV of 12M)

3) Sign Soria for the pen (2 years AAV 13M)

4) Sign Anibal for the rotation (1 year for 6M)

Total add to payroll 44M

I would start the year with a rotation of Folty, Gausman, Anibal, Julion and Fried.

I would not trade Soroka or Gohara. Even though there are question marks about them (as there are for any pitching prospects), they are our two highest upside guys.

I like having a rotation of almost major league ready, highly rated prospects in AAA. They will come into play later in 2019. I would not push for Soroka and Gohara to make the team out of spring training. Ease them back into things in a controlled environment after the difficulties they had in 2018. I would also like to give Fried half a season in the rotation to see what he's got. A final opportunity as a starter before the move to the pen if it comes to that.

I would hold back a fair amount of payroll for mid-season moves. We were pretty lucky with injuries in 2018. Depth and flexibility to make moves at the deadline are likely to be important in 2019.

Interesting that you went Soria for the bullpen signing. He's definitely aged well, but when I think of signing a bullpen arm to an AAV of more than 10 million, them being over 35 scares me. I think I'd be more comfortable in the 2 year 18 million dollar range.

[Russ2dollas]

I don’t have the level of detail asked for in post one.

Ideally I’d have my big trade be for a controlled corner of like haniger. If it’s a giant deal maybe include Paxton and send back newk as part of the deal

Get grandal on a 3 year deal with an solid team option and an expensive team option after that. Realmuto costs too much, plays catcher and only has two years.

Sign Moose to play 3b. Comargo plays 3b vs lh and utility vs rh.

Sign Andrew miller to a one year pillow deal.

Eat 5 million in an overpaid reliever and move Tehran

Try like hell to extend Acuna and albies

Leave 5 to 10 million open for deadline deals

[nsacpi]

Additional thought, I think we can do business with the Diamondbacks. If you look at things from their perspective, sending them over some young cost-controlled pitching should have a lot of appeal. It would provide them with enough pitching depth to allow them to move Greinke and the bulk of his contract. This in turn would then allow them to use the payroll flexibility to potentially re-sign Pollock and extend Goldschmidt. Or they could use the $$ for other purposes.

[BeanieAntics]

Additional thought, I think we can do business with the Diamondbacks. If you look at things from their perspective, sending them over some young cost-controlled pitching should have a lot of appeal. It would provide them with enough pitching depth to allow them to move Greinke and the bulk of his contract. This in turn would then allow them to use the payroll flexibility to potentially re-sign Pollock and extend Goldschmidt. Or they could use the $$ for other purposes.

Yeah the D'Backs seem like our best trade partners this offseason. I'm still salty about them resigning Escobar, but I'll get over it if we could snag Peralta and Lamb from them lol.

[Russ2dollas]

Yeah the D'Backs seem like our best trade partners this offseason. I'm still salty about them resigning Escobar, but I'll get over it if we could snag Peralta and Lamb from them lol.

Agree

Walker getting tj. They want to move grienke. Peralta a fit for us.

They might be very interested in guys like newk and fried who can play next year. They might even want Tehran

[Hudson2]

Trade Anderson, Riley, and Cruz for JTR
Sign Cutch for 3/45
Sign Familia for 2/26
Sign Walker for 2/12
Trade Teheran for 7 million in salary relief for a bullpen arm

That around 35 added so far and I’d save the rest for in season moves.

[ixiXSolidXixi]

Trade for Jt Realmuto
Trade for Derek Dietrich or sign Lonnie Chisenhall
Sign Andrew McCutchen for 2 years with option to a third year.
Sign Cody Allen
Trade Julio Teheran for Nate Jones.
Wait until trade deadline to acquire Madison Bumgarner or any other pitcher.
Cut Adam Duvall
Cut Sam Freeman

[zbhargrove]

Another option...

Dansby, Julio, and Beck/Tarnok/Ynoa to Seattle for Segura (~ $3 million added)

Riley and Wilson to Cleveland for Carrasco ($9.5 million added)

Sign Grandal for 3/$45 million ($15 million added)

Sign Brantley for 3/$45 million ($15 million added)

Sign Matt Joyce for 1/$3 million ($3 million added)

Sign Holland for 2/$10 million, release Freeman - ($3.5 million added)


Total Added To 2019 Payroll - $49 million (Opening Day Payroll would be $133,820,000 including deferred money due Sutter if it hasn't been paid off already)


2B- Albies, SS- Segura, 1B- Freeman, RF- Acuna, LF- Brantley, C- Grandal, 3B- Camargo, CF- Inciarte

Flowers, Culberson, Joyce, Duvall

Carrasco, Folty, Newcomb, Gausman, Touki
(Soroka, Gohara, Wright, Allard, Weigel)

Holland, Minter, Vizcaino, Venters, O'Day, Biddle, Winkler, Fried

Why do people not realize Sam Freeman is really good when healthy? I'd give up on the Holland dream dude. Also I'm not giving up that much for Segura who we don't really need. The Carasco package is too light

[Skeeter31]

Why do people not realize Sam Freeman is really good when healthy? I'd give up on the Holland dream dude. Also I'm not giving up that much for Segura who we don't really need. The Carasco package is too light

People like to harp on how bad Freeman is but he’s been one of our most solid relievers over the past 2 seasons. And what’s even funnier is clv was banging the drum to sign him to an extension last offseason. Now he wants to release him. And of course sign his good personal friend Holland.

[clvclv]

People like to harp on how bad Freeman is but he’s been one of our most solid relievers over the past 2 seasons. And what’s even funnier is clv was banging the drum to sign him to an extension last offseason. Now he wants to release him. And of course sign his good personal friend Holland.

I absolutely was all for extending him when he was on fire and nobody could touch him. I wasn't alone there. I was wrong, and he came back to earth - what looked like taking a step forward turned out to be a hot stretch.

Would you like to chart Holland and Freeman side-by-side for their careers to see which one's a better Pitcher? Didn't think so. Again, find another potential closing option who's liable to come that cheap and I'd be all for signing them also. The OP said to limit spending to $50 million or less - if you could get Soria for 2/$10 million I'd prefer him over Holland. The problem is, he won't come that cheap.

[clvclv]

Why do people not realize Sam Freeman is really good when healthy? I'd give up on the Holland dream dude. Also I'm not giving up that much for Segura who we don't really need. The Carasco package is too light

The Carrasco package is easily enhanced by adding a Wentz-level prospect. If it had to be stretched further, make it Riley, Waters, and a lesser arm like Allard (or below).

Sam Freeman's going to get paid $1.5 million to be one of the last options out of the pen. Has nothing to do with liking/not liking him. The same goes for Holland - has nothing to do with personal allegiances. FanGraphs projects him to make $5.3 million on a one-year deal. There's no doubt he would be an upgrade to the pen, certainly an upgrade over Freeman. Freeman walked 5.72 hitters per 9 in 2018, and has walked 5.04 hitters per 9 for his career. Biddle and Fried are better options than Freeman even if you're not trying to add a late-inning arm. When looking for potential closing options on the cheap, AA's not likely to find one cheaper than Greg - if he can, that's who he should sign.

[Southcack77]

Why do people not realize Sam Freeman is really good when healthy? I'd give up on the Holland dream dude. Also I'm not giving up that much for Segura who we don't really need. The Carasco package is too light

Dansby and a third tier pitching prospect and the bonus of shedding Julio’s contract is too much?

[Carp]

Why do people not realize Sam Freeman is really good when healthy? I'd give up on the Holland dream dude. Also I'm not giving up that much for Segura who we don't really need. The Carasco package is too light

He is not really good in any condition. He isn't terrible either, but with O'Day in the fold and the desire to add a late inning reliever, he's the odd man out. Also, he's going into arby and there are simply cheaper options internally that produce just as well or better for half the price.

[Chico]

I think Freeman’s a trade candidate if not a non tender as well due to the numbers.

My mlb pen would have Minter, Venters, and possibly Biddle in it even though Biddle had opposite splits last year.

The AAA pen would have Clouse, Burrows, and McCreery.

[Horsehide Harry]

I think Freeman’s a trade candidate if not a non tender as well due to the numbers.

My mlb pen would have Minter, Venters, and possibly Biddle in it even though Biddle had opposite splits last year.

The AAA pen would have Clouse, Burrows, and McCreery.

Did someone say Freeman trade?

[bravesfanMatt]

Did someone say Freeman trade?

Well played.