Corey Kluber has put up WAR of 5.1, 7.3 and 5.6 the past 3 seasons. Steamer projects him at 4.8 in 2019, which would be his age 33 season. He will make 13M in 2019 and there are options for 13.5M in 2020 and 14M in 2021. I really like options for pitchers because they provide some protection for teams in the event of catastrophic injury while allowing for upside in the event a pitcher ages well. It is difficult to know how to value this and my approach is to incorporate the value of those options by being slightly optimistic in my projections for his production over the next three years. I
I would project Kluber to total 14 WAR over the next three years. His salary over this time represents the market price for 4 wins. So surplus value of 10 WAR over this period. What might we offer the Indians with equivalent value. I would value Newcomb as a 2 WAR per year player during the remaining five years of team control. For the next two yeas most of that is surplus value and for the last three about half is expected surplus value. So total about 6 WAR of expected surplus value for Newk. The remaining 4 WAR could come from Touki or Bryse Wilson. We might have to give up Wright (and maybe even more) instead if the market for Kluber is strong, and I suspect it would be.
James Paxton has put up WAR of 3.5, 4.6, and 3.8 in the past 3 seasons. Steamer really likes him and projects him at 4.4 in 2019, which would be his age 30 season. He has two seasons of arb control left. I would project him for a total of 8 WAR over those two years. He will make 18-20M in those two seasons, or the market price for 2 wins. So surplus value equivalent to 6 WAR. Newk would come close to getting him. Again with a strong market, it might take a little more. Say Newk and Wentz.
Zach Greinke has put up WAR of 2.2, 5.1 and 3.5 the last 3 seasons. Steamer projects him at 3.3 in 2019, which would be is age 35 season. I would project him to put up 9 WAR over the remaining three years of his contract. He is scheduled to make 95.5M in those three years (some deferred) or the equivalent of about 10 WAR. Greinke's contract is under water or at best just at the water line. In other threads, I discussed a trade in which we would provide affordable young pitching to the Diamondbacks in exchange for Peralta and Lamb. I have made the point that this makes sense for the Diamondbacks because it would allow them to then move Greinke and a big chunk of his contract and free up payroll for possible signing Pollock or extenting Goldschmidt or doing any number of other things.
It occurs to me that we could offer the Diamondbacks an opportunity to do a really big deal that would include Peralta, Lamb and Greinke. Peralta has put up WAR of 1.8 and 3.8 the last two years (he was injured most of the 2015 season). Steamer projects him at 2.5 next year, when he will be 31 for most of the season. Lets say he will generate 5 WAR over his two remaining arb years. He will make 13-15M over that period or the market price of 1.5 WAR. So surplus value of 3.5. Lamb also has two arbitration years left and has an expected surplus value of about 1.5. So Peralta and Lamb have a total value of 5 WAR. Pretty close to what Sean Newcomb is worth. Now expand the trade to include Greinke. What we have to give up in addition will depend on how much salary we take on. If we agree to take on say 15M per year of salary for the next 3 years, we would have to give up a prospect such as Touki or Wilson.
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