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Thread: Kluber Paxton Greinke and Others

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    Kluber Paxton Greinke and Others

    Corey Kluber has put up WAR of 5.1, 7.3 and 5.6 the past 3 seasons. Steamer projects him at 4.8 in 2019, which would be his age 33 season. He will make 13M in 2019 and there are options for 13.5M in 2020 and 14M in 2021. I really like options for pitchers because they provide some protection for teams in the event of catastrophic injury while allowing for upside in the event a pitcher ages well. It is difficult to know how to value this and my approach is to incorporate the value of those options by being slightly optimistic in my projections for his production over the next three years. I

    I would project Kluber to total 14 WAR over the next three years. His salary over this time represents the market price for 4 wins. So surplus value of 10 WAR over this period. What might we offer the Indians with equivalent value. I would value Newcomb as a 2 WAR per year player during the remaining five years of team control. For the next two yeas most of that is surplus value and for the last three about half is expected surplus value. So total about 6 WAR of expected surplus value for Newk. The remaining 4 WAR could come from Touki or Bryse Wilson. We might have to give up Wright (and maybe even more) instead if the market for Kluber is strong, and I suspect it would be.

    James Paxton has put up WAR of 3.5, 4.6, and 3.8 in the past 3 seasons. Steamer really likes him and projects him at 4.4 in 2019, which would be his age 30 season. He has two seasons of arb control left. I would project him for a total of 8 WAR over those two years. He will make 18-20M in those two seasons, or the market price for 2 wins. So surplus value equivalent to 6 WAR. Newk would come close to getting him. Again with a strong market, it might take a little more. Say Newk and Wentz.

    Zach Greinke has put up WAR of 2.2, 5.1 and 3.5 the last 3 seasons. Steamer projects him at 3.3 in 2019, which would be is age 35 season. I would project him to put up 9 WAR over the remaining three years of his contract. He is scheduled to make 95.5M in those three years (some deferred) or the equivalent of about 10 WAR. Greinke's contract is under water or at best just at the water line. In other threads, I discussed a trade in which we would provide affordable young pitching to the Diamondbacks in exchange for Peralta and Lamb. I have made the point that this makes sense for the Diamondbacks because it would allow them to then move Greinke and a big chunk of his contract and free up payroll for possible signing Pollock or extenting Goldschmidt or doing any number of other things.

    It occurs to me that we could offer the Diamondbacks an opportunity to do a really big deal that would include Peralta, Lamb and Greinke. Peralta has put up WAR of 1.8 and 3.8 the last two years (he was injured most of the 2015 season). Steamer projects him at 2.5 next year, when he will be 31 for most of the season. Lets say he will generate 5 WAR over his two remaining arb years. He will make 13-15M over that period or the market price of 1.5 WAR. So surplus value of 3.5. Lamb also has two arbitration years left and has an expected surplus value of about 1.5. So Peralta and Lamb have a total value of 5 WAR. Pretty close to what Sean Newcomb is worth. Now expand the trade to include Greinke. What we have to give up in addition will depend on how much salary we take on. If we agree to take on say 15M per year of salary for the next 3 years, we would have to give up a prospect such as Touki or Wilson.
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    I've thought about taking on Grienke's contract in an effort to get Peralta and Lamb as well. Looking at AA's trade history and the fact he does not care for free agency there's a good chance we take on a "bad contract" in order to gain surplus vlaue in another area.

    You could even include one of Julio or Oday or even both to offset some of the Grienke salary.

    It starts to sound like a fantasy trade, but it's what AA has done most of in the past.

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    I want to also look at Carrasco and Bauer. But first let me make a few points about what the Diamondbacks, Mariners and Indians are trying to do. They all face significant payroll constraints. They all seem reluctant to do a full teardown. What they are trying to do is remain relevant in 2019 while improving their chances or extending their windows beyond 2019. It might seem foolish to some around here that they are taking this approach, but my impression is this is what they are trying to do.

    If I'm right about what these teams are trying to accomplish, it makes a lot of sense for them to trade for someone like Newcomb, who is cheap, has a bit of a major league track record and has five more years of control left. They give up someone who is better like Paxton, Bauer or Greinke, but who costs more and has fewer years of control. That is the tradeoff that those teams are trying to accomplish. And we are actually well positioned to help them do that.

    A couple observations about Newcomb. There are quite a few posters around here (including me to some extent) who dream on him. I dream on him less than others, but I see the upside. GMs are more knowledgeable than we are, but they also dream on players to one extent or another. It could be that two of the three GMs for the Diamondbacks, Mariners and Indians will not be impressed at all with an offer centered around Newcomb. But one of them might be intrigued. AA needs to find that guy.

    Second observation about Newcomb. He sweats like a pig and has trouble gripping the ball in hot humid weather. Some of his best starts came in air conditioned environments. I include San Francisco, which is naturally air conditioned. Teams look at everything these days. It might be a point of emphasis for the Diamondbacks or Mariners that Newcomb does really well in air conditioned environments.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 11-12-2018 at 10:56 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I want to also look at Carrasco and Bauer. But first let me make a few points about what the Diamondbacks, Mariners and Indians are trying to do. They all face significant payroll constraints. They all seem reluctant to do a full teardown. What they are trying to do is remain relevant in 2019 which improving their chances or extending their windows beyond 2019. It might seem foolish to some, but that is the impression I have of what they are trying to do.

    For all three teams, it makes a lot of sense to trade for someone like Newcomb, who is cheap but has a bit of a major league track record and has five more years of control left. They give up someone who is better like Paxton, Bauer or Greinke, but who costs more and has fewer years of control. That is the tradeoff that those teams are trying to accomplish. And we are actually well positioned to help them do that.

    A couple more observations about Newcomb. There are quite a few posters around here (including me to some extent) who dream on him. I dream on him less than others, but I see the upside. GMs are more knowledgeable than we are, but they also dream on players to one extent or another. It could be that two of the three GMs for the Diamondbacks, Mariners and Indians will not be impressed at all with an offer centered around Newcomb. But one of them might be intrigued. AA needs to find that guy.

    One more observation about Newcomb. He sweats like a pig and has trouble gripping the ball in hot humid weather. Some of his best starts came in air conditioned environments. I include San Francisco, which is naturally air conditioned. Teams look at everything these days. It might be a point of emphasis for a team like the Diamondbacks or Mariners that Newcomb does really well in air conditioned environments.
    I like Newk, but I also like Touki. I think it's risky to have a planned rotation with both of them.

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    Carlos Carrasco has put up WAR of 2.5, 5.5 and 5.3 the last three seasons. Steamer has him at 4.6 in 2019, when he'll be 32. I would expect him to generate 8 WAR over the next two seasons. His 2019 salary is 9M and there is a club option for 9.5 in 2020. Expected surplus value about 6. Newcomb comes close to that. If the market for guys like Carasco is strong, maybe Newk plus Wentz.

    Trevor Bauer has put up WAR of 2.7, 3.2 and 6.1 the last three seasons. Steamer has him at 4.0 in 2019, when he will be 28. I like him a little more but lets say 8 WAR over his remaining two years of arb control. He will probably make 20-22 M over those two year. So surplus value a little under 6. Again Newcomb or Newcomb plus a little more might get this done. Of the five pitchers I've looked at in this thread, Bauer is the one who interests me the most. But I suspect Cleveland would rather trade Carrasco, so he might be the most realistic target.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 11-12-2018 at 10:58 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Corey Kluber has put up WAR of 5.1, 7.3 and 5.6 the past 3 seasons. Steamer projects him at 4.8 in 2019, which would be his age 33 season. He will make 13M in 2019 and there are options for 13.5M in 2020 and 14M in 2021. I really like options for pitchers because they provide some protection for teams in the event of catastrophic injury while allowing for upside in the event a pitcher ages well. It is difficult to know how to value this and my approach is to incorporate the value of those options by being slightly optimistic in my projections for his production over the next three years. I

    I would project Kluber to total 14 WAR over the next three years. His salary over this time represents the market price for 4 wins. So surplus value of 10 WAR over this period. What might we offer the Indians with equivalent value. I would value Newcomb as a 2 WAR per year player during the remaining five years of team control. For the next two yeas most of that is surplus value and for the last three about half is expected surplus value. So total about 6 WAR of expected surplus value for Newk. The remaining 4 WAR could come from Touki or Bryse Wilson. We might have to give up Wright (and maybe even more) instead if the market for Kluber is strong, and I suspect it would be.

    James Paxton has put up WAR of 3.5, 4.6, and 3.8 in the past 3 seasons. Steamer really likes him and projects him at 4.4 in 2019, which would be his age 30 season. He has two seasons of arb control left. I would project him for a total of 8 WAR over those two years. He will make 18-20M in those two seasons, or the market price for 2 wins. So surplus value equivalent to 6 WAR. Newk would come close to getting him. Again with a strong market, it might take a little more. Say Newk and Wentz.

    Zach Greinke has put up WAR of 2.2, 5.1 and 3.5 the last 3 seasons. Steamer projects him at 3.3 in 2019, which would be is age 35 season. I would project him to put up 9 WAR over the remaining three years of his contract. He is scheduled to make 95.5M in those three years (some deferred) or the equivalent of about 10 WAR. Greinke's contract is under water or at best just at the water line. In other threads, I discussed a trade in which we would provide affordable young pitching to the Diamondbacks in exchange for Peralta and Lamb. I have made the point that this makes sense for the Diamondbacks because it would allow them to then move Greinke and a big chunk of his contract and free up payroll for possible signing Pollock or extenting Goldschmidt or doing any number of other things.

    It occurs to me that we could offer the Diamondbacks an opportunity to do a really big deal that would include Peralta, Lamb and Greinke. Peralta has put up WAR of 1.8 and 3.8 the last two years (he was injured most of the 2015 season). Steamer projects him at 2.5 next year, when he will be 31 for most of the season. Lets say he will generate 5 WAR over his two remaining arb years. He will make 13-15M over that period or the market price of 1.5 WAR. So surplus value of 3.5. Lamb also has two arbitration years left and has an expected surplus value of about 1.5. So Peralta and Lamb have a total value of 5 WAR. Pretty close to what Sean Newcomb is worth. Now expand the trade to include Greinke. What we have to give up in addition will depend on how much salary we take on. If we agree to take on say 15M per year of salary for the next 3 years, we would have to give up a prospect such as Touki or Wilson.
    Its interesting that so many 3rd party evaluators are so much lower than me on Touki. Right now I have him as a clear cut 55 value pitcher, but FG has him as a 50 just a couple dozen spots above Wilson who is also a 50. If I had a choice between the two, there is no doubt that I'd trade Wilson every day of the week before I even thought about touching Touki. I suspect that many FOs feel similarly and that Touki is going to be highly sought after in trade discussions.

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    Kluber's contract information is a little inconsistent between sites, but I think he's hit some escalators that make his base salary 17m. I think that's still a bargain, when you consider 12m is the going rate for a veteran fourth starter type. With the last two seasons being options with small buyouts, that's an intensely good contract.

    I'm in the category of people that believe starting pitching is still important, so I am not against landing someone like Kluber. I assume the prospect cost would be tremendous, but I think I can live with parting with any pitching prospect.

    I doubt Newcomb is going to be a sought after asset in trades.

    ......

    The performance suggests otherwise, but i would personally value Greinke more towards that 3-4 veteran starter role, maybe a little higher. That's not a market reality, but if the Diamondbacks are willing to reduce his salary in that range and not demand a whole lot in return, I'm ok with it.

    I am not so concerned with declining stuff as others and Greinke has excelled in figuring out how to live without the hard stuff, but he's still 35 and I'm not sure his stuff is necessary playoff shutout level. He's old enough to where even the aging gracefully crafty guys start to lose the ability to always hit their spots.

    i would not be inclined to eat most of Greinke's salary to get Lamb and Peralta.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Carlos Carrasco has put up WAR of 2.5, 5.5 and 5.3 the last three seasons. Steamer has him at 4.6 in 2019, when he'll be 32. I would expect him to generate 8 WAR over the next two seasons. His 2019 salary is 9M and there is a club option for 9.5 in 2020. Expected surplus value about 6. Newcomb comes close to that. If the market for guys like Carasco is strong, maybe Newk plus Wentz.

    Trevor Bauer has put up WAR of 2.7, 3.2 and 6.1 the last three seasons. Steamer has him at 4.0 in 2019, when he will be 28. I like him a little more but lets say 8 WAR over his remaining two years of arb control. He will probably make 20-22 M over those two year. So surplus value a little under 6. Again Newcomb or Newcomb plus a little more might get this done. Of the five pitchers I've looked at in this thread, Bauer is the one who interests me the most. But I suspect Cleveland would rather trade Carrasco, so he might be the most realistic target.
    I really don't want to trade for a SP this offseason, but if we do I think a Bauer for Newk + (insert 45 FV prospect) would be okay with me. The Greinke idea also seems somewhat compelling, but paying him that much over the next 3 years (plus prospects) for 2 years of Peralta and Lamb isn't the most appealing idea in the world

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    Its interesting that so many 3rd party evaluators are so much lower than me on Touki. Right now I have him as a clear cut 55 value pitcher, but FG has him as a 50 just a couple dozen spots above Wilson who is also a 50. If I had a choice between the two, there is no doubt that I'd trade Wilson every day of the week before I even thought about touching Touki. I suspect that many FOs feel similarly and that Touki is going to be highly sought after in trade discussions.
    I like both Touki and Wilson more than Wright. But not as much as Soroka and Gohara.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Kluber's contract information is a little inconsistent between sites, but I think he's hit some escalators that make his base salary 17m. I think that's still a bargain, when you consider 12m is the going rate for a veteran fourth starter type. With the last two seasons being options with small buyouts, that's an intensely good contract.

    I'm in the category of people that believe starting pitching is still important, so I am not against landing someone like Kluber. I assume the prospect cost would be tremendous, but I think I can live with parting with any pitching prospect.

    I doubt Newcomb is going to be a sought after asset in trades.

    ......

    The performance suggests otherwise, but i would personally value Greinke more towards that 3-4 veteran starter role, maybe a little higher. That's not a market reality, but if the Diamondbacks are willing to reduce his salary in that range and not demand a whole lot in return, I'm ok with it.

    I am not so concerned with declining stuff as others and Greinke has excelled in figuring out how to live without the hard stuff, but he's still 35 and I'm not sure his stuff is necessary playoff shutout level. He's old enough to where even the aging gracefully crafty guys start to lose the ability to always hit their spots.

    i would not be inclined to eat most of Greinke's salary to get Lamb and Peralta.
    The question isn't whether it is a good contract or not, the question is do we want to absorb that contract plus the prospect cost at a position where we currently have a surplus, while neglecting our other needs. If we absorb all of Kluber's contract, it would be exceedingly difficult to address corner outfield and catcher. The problem compounds on itself if you include Ender in the deal, as some have suggested.

    I don't think anyone is suggesting that SP isn't important. The question is do we really need to add another SP and his contract when we have a surplus and we are coming off a year where our SPs had the 4th best combined ERA in baseball.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I like both Touki and Wilson more than Wright. But not as much as Soroka and Gohara.
    Interesting. I'd definitely put Touki in the Soroka and Gohara group on my list, with Wright just under them and Wilson behind him. It'll be interesting to see how teams end up valuing those guys. Personally I think I'd rather give up prospects from the Anderson, Muller, Wentz group than I would the group that is close to the majors, but that is just me.

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    Anderson, Wright, and Touki for me in that order. Arizona would have to eat a lot of money to get me to take Greinke. If Cleveland is trying to save money to sign a FA outfielder then I would definitely see what one of their starters would cost but only after we fix C and COF.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    Interesting. I'd definitely put Touki in the Soroka and Gohara group on my list, with Wright just under them and Wilson behind him. It'll be interesting to see how teams end up valuing those guys. Personally I think I'd rather give up prospects from the Anderson, Muller, Wentz group than I would the group that is close to the majors, but that is just me.
    Anderson is more with Touki and Wilson for me. Roughly I group them like this:

    Soroka and Gohara--do not trade

    Anderson, Touki, Wilson

    Wright

    Wentz, Muller, Allard

    I suspect some of the teams we discuss trades with will value Wright above Anderson, Touki and Wilson.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    Interesting. I'd definitely put Touki in the Soroka and Gohara group on my list, with Wright just under them and Wilson behind him. It'll be interesting to see how teams end up valuing those guys. Personally I think I'd rather give up prospects from the Anderson, Muller, Wentz group than I would the group that is close to the majors, but that is just me.
    i think wilson's floor is pretty high. he's much more of a sure thing to produce than a guy like touki. that's gotta be baked in to evals.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hudson2 View Post
    Anderson, Wright, and Touki for me in that order. Arizona would have to eat a lot of money to get me to take Greinke. If Cleveland is trying to save money to sign a FA outfielder then I would definitely see what one of their starters would cost but only after we fix C and COF.
    If I was AA would tell Cleveland I have in interest in Bauer or Carrasco. Let them choose which one to trade.

    I would offer them a choice of two of Newcomb, Anderson, Wright, Touki, Wilson. I'm pretty sure they will take Newcomb as one of their choices.

    The 2019 salaries for Bauer and Carrasco are not that high. 9M for Carrasco. Maybe a little more for Bauer. Picking up one of them would still leave us with enough to fill our other needs. We just might have to be a little cheaper in terms of who we bring in for the pen and bench.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    The question isn't whether it is a good contract or not, the question is do we want to absorb that contract plus the prospect cost at a position where we currently have a surplus, while neglecting our other needs. If we absorb all of Kluber's contract, it would be exceedingly difficult to address corner outfield and catcher. The problem compounds on itself if you include Ender in the deal, as some have suggested.

    I don't think anyone is suggesting that SP isn't important. The question is do we really need to add another SP and his contract when we have a surplus and we are coming off a year where our SPs had the 4th best combined ERA in baseball.

    I don't see allocating 17m to a Cy Young level starting pitcher as particularly problematic to the payroll.

    Catcher can be expensive, but it doesn't have to. They can simply bring back Suzuki one more time if they like and survey the trade market later.

    cOF options are mostly the aging veterans who haven't been doing so well in free agency. This can get done for 15m. Or by trade.

    So maybe 35m with Kluber, cOF, catcher.

    Plenty of cash left to add to pen and the bench.


    Personally, I'm open to trading Inciarte in any deal that values him highly. That would free up a little bit more money and bring down prospect cost. If you aren't getting value then keep him. He's still an asset at 6m.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    The question isn't whether it is a good contract or not, the question is do we want to absorb that contract plus the prospect cost at a position where we currently have a surplus, while neglecting our other needs. If we absorb all of Kluber's contract, it would be exceedingly difficult to address corner outfield and catcher. The problem compounds on itself if you include Ender in the deal, as some have suggested.

    I don't think anyone is suggesting that SP isn't important. The question is do we really need to add another SP and his contract when we have a surplus and we are coming off a year where our SPs had the 4th best combined ERA in baseball.
    I agree that SP is not a priority this off-season. But I see an alignment between what some of these other teams are trying to do and what we can provide them. It is a case of being opportunistic and seeing if we can exploit that alignment. In a lot of the plans I suggested in other threads I have us bringing back Anibal. If we can get one of the pitchers I discuss in this thread for a reasonable price (centered around Newcomb) we really should go for it.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I agree that SP is not a priority this off-season. But I see an alignment between what some of these other teams are trying to do and what we can provide them. It is a case of being opportunistic and seeing if we can exploit that alignment. In a lot of the plans I suggested in other threads I have us bringing back Anibal. If we can get one of the pitchers I discuss in this thread for a reasonable price (centered around Newcomb) we really should go for it.

    Bringing Anibal back as a 6th man is just fine, but he's the $39 DVD Player you pick up to get a year's use out of before it breaks.

    Asking him to do what he did this year is asking for disappointment. You certainly shouldn't pay more than $39.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I don't see allocating 17m to a Cy Young level starting pitcher as particularly problematic to the payroll.

    Catcher can be expensive, but it doesn't have to. They can simply bring back Suzuki one more time if they like and survey the trade market later.

    cOF options are mostly the aging veterans who haven't been doing so well in free agency. This can get done for 15m. Or by trade.

    So maybe 35m with Kluber, cOF, catcher.

    Plenty of cash left to add to pen and the bench.


    Personally, I'm open to trading Inciarte in any deal that values him highly. That would free up a little bit more money and bring down prospect cost. If you aren't getting value then keep him. He's still an asset at 6m.
    I'd personally much rather improve catcher than trade a boat load of prospects for a 33 year old pitcher. His contract isn't bad for his level of production, but 15-17 million dollars is still 15-17 million dollars. If we had a glaring need at starting pitcher I'd have no problem with swinging a deal for Kluber. But we really don't. We do have a need at catcher and corner outfield. We could go the cheap route and just resign Suzuki or something, but I'd rather have Grandal. Then swing a trade for Peralta or something.

    I'd like a lineup with Grandal + Peralta FAR more than I'd like a lineup with Flowers/Suzuki plus somebody like Brantley. That would only be marginally better than last year's lineup, maybe no improvement at all if Flowers and Suzuki continue to regress.

    Like I said, if we had a glaring need or if it were for a slam dunk type of player, then I'd consider doing it. But I'd never consider a 33 year old pitcher a slam dunk kind of acquisition, especially when you're talking about ~100 million in surplus value to acquire him.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Bringing Anibal back as a 6th man is just fine, but he's the $39 DVD Player you pick up to get a year's use out of before it breaks.

    Asking him to do what he did this year is asking for disappointment. You certainly shouldn't pay more than $39.
    Actually Anibal's data on balls squared up was very good this year. He figured out something with the cutter last off-season. But if we can get one of the guys we are talking about in this tread for a reasonable price we should go for it. Anibal would be my fall-back plan if we didn't.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

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