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Thread: Updated Farm Rankings + Updated Prospect Valuation Charts (Fangraphs)

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    Updated Farm Rankings + Updated Prospect Valuation Charts (Fangraphs)

    Farm Rankings: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post...stem-rankings/

    Braves come in at #2.

    Updated Valuation Charts: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-u...ect-valuation/

    This should be useful to us that like to form accurate trade predictions/estimates.

    Valuation Chart for players outside the top 100: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/putt...e-the-top-100/

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    And we have the #9 and #21 picks in the draft coming. We should have a really long window if everything is done right.

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    Pache 53m
    Soroka 43m
    Riley 43m
    Wright 42m
    Anderson 40m
    Gohara 39m
    Waters 28m
    Touissant 28m
    Wilson 22m
    Allard 16m
    Wentz 14m
    Contreras 14m


    this would make Riley, Wright, Gohara as my favored trade chips.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hudson2 View Post
    And we have the #9 and #21 picks in the draft coming. We should have a really long window if everything is done right.

    It's top heavy though.

    Braves really need to draft well going forward which is one reason I would not give up picks. I would consider trading for them honestly. Need to cover the international signing hole somehow.

    I assume the Braves lack of activity on that market this year suggests that they are making a complete overhaul, which calls into question whether they can still make the same kinds of signings when they get out of the penalty box.

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    Looking at the rankings of the Cleveland, Seattle and Arizona farm systems, this reinforces my view those teams will be receptive to trades where they get younger players with lots of major league control still left in exchange for more accomplished players with less control time left. The farm system information reinforces the other consideration, which is that all three are dealing with payroll constraints.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Looking at the rankings of the Cleveland, Seattle and Arizona farm systems, this reinforces my view those teams will be receptive to trades where they get younger players with lots of major league control still left in exchange for more accomplished players with less control time left. The farm system information reinforces the other consideration, which is that all three are dealing with payroll constraints.
    It makes sense to me that Cleveland might be willing to sell a starting pitcher.

    I don't really understand how Seattle does.

    Arizona would undoubtably love to be out of Greinke's contract or at least a large portion of it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    It makes sense to me that Cleveland might be willing to sell a starting pitcher.

    I don't really understand how Seattle does.

    Arizona would undoubtably love to be out of Greinke's contract or at least a large portion of it.
    Seattle's GM has pretty much said Paxton is available. In contrast, he is holding on to Haniger, the difference being the extra two years of control. Their whole approach suggests they would have interest in Paxton for Newcomb plus.
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    This is one of the main reasons why FG has the best prospect info in the public sphere. Their FV values are consistent and have actual meaning. They don’t assign 50s to 100 guys in each draft.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Seattle's GM has pretty much said Paxton is available. In contrast, he is holding on to Haniger, the difference being the extra two years of control. Their whole approach suggests they would have interest in Paxton for Newcomb plus.
    Which I would be all-in on. The issue is that I feel the Yankees are high on Paxton as well. I do not want to get in a bidding war for any picture, let alone one coming off an injury. The only pitcher I'm giving a butt-ton for is Kluber. The risk is there, but dude has done nothing but show he's a bonafide star in the AL.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    This is one of the main reasons why FG has the best prospect info in the public sphere. Their FV values are consistent and have actual meaning. They don’t assign 50s to 100 guys in each draft.
    Yup. And when I look at these lists and disagree with where a Braves prospect is pegged, I try to find another Braves prospect that I disagree about in the other direction. Otherwise blind homerism takes over.

    One of the things people misunderstand about projecting prospects and forecasting in general is you're always going to have forecasting mistakes, but you want to avoid systematic bias.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 11-12-2018 at 12:31 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    This is one of the main reasons why FG has the best prospect info in the public sphere. Their FV values are consistent and have actual meaning. They don’t assign 50s to 100 guys in each draft.
    Oh come on, you don't think........ Brusdar Graterol is a 60 FV prospect? Thank God for MLB Pipeline, the safe haven where I can have my bias confirmation'd.

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    Quote Originally Posted by UNCBlue012 View Post
    Which I would be all-in on. The issue is that I feel the Yankees are high on Paxton as well. I do not want to get in a bidding war for any picture, let alone one coming off an injury. The only pitcher I'm giving a butt-ton for is Kluber. The risk is there, but dude has done nothing but show he's a bonafide star in the AL.
    I think we need to talk to all three of the Diamondbacks, Mariners and Indians. Cast the net widely because they will each have their own valuations of the players we are offering in return.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I think we need to talk to all three of the Diamondbacks, Mariners and Indians. Cast the net widely because they will each have their own valuations of the players we are offering in return.
    If we end up sending prospects for a pitcher, I really hope it is one that isn't making 10+ million and if it is, I hope its a Greinke-type trade like the one you suggested. Eating an enormous prospect cost and substantial financial cost just isn't a viable option for me, given our offensive needs. Especially if we ended up sending Ender in a Kluber trade. That is the one that I just can't wrap my mind around at all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    If we end up sending prospects for a pitcher, I really hope it is one that isn't making 10+ million and if it is, I hope its a Greinke-type trade like the one you suggested. Eating an enormous prospect cost and substantial financial cost just isn't a viable option for me, given our offensive needs. Especially if we ended up sending Ender in a Kluber trade. That is the one that I just can't wrap my mind around at all.
    how would Newcomb plus Touki for Carrasco strike you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    how would Newcomb plus Touki for Carrasco strike you.
    It strikes me as not even close to enough

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    It strikes me as not even close to enough
    we'll see...I thing it would be a highly competitive bid

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    how would Newcomb plus Touki for Carrasco strike you.
    I'd like that much more than a Kluber trade, if that would get it done.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    we'll see...I thing it would be a highly competitive bid

    I just doubt that Newcomb is as valuable as an asset as your posts suggest. If he is, then that's fantastic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I just doubt that Newcomb is as valuable as an asset as your posts suggest. If he is, then that's fantastic.
    yeah, i don't think newcomb has a lot of value league-wide.
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    Sean does have 5 years of control remaining and is projected to be a 1.5-2 win pitcher next year. That means a raw value in the 75-100 million dollar range. Take out what he will make contractually (~25 million maybe?) for the surplus value. But I think a lot of GMs are associating a lot of risk with Newcomb, so I'm thinking they are valuing him at <50 million dollars. I say that, but usually the SV number is pretty spot on so maybe nsacpi is right and Newcomb does carry more value than we think.

    Edit: This is also assuming he is a 1.5 win pitcher for the next 5 years. Its possible, and maybe more reasonable, to project him as something like 1.5, 1.5, 1, 1, .5 in which case that dramatically diminishes his value.

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