Farm Rankings: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post...stem-rankings/
Braves come in at #2.
Updated Valuation Charts: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-u...ect-valuation/
This should be useful to us that like to form accurate trade predictions/estimates.
Valuation Chart for players outside the top 100: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/putt...e-the-top-100/
And we have the #9 and #21 picks in the draft coming. We should have a really long window if everything is done right.
Originally Posted by Hudson2
It's top heavy though.
Braves really need to draft well going forward which is one reason I would not give up picks. I would consider trading for them honestly. Need to cover the international signing hole somehow.
I assume the Braves lack of activity on that market this year suggests that they are making a complete overhaul, which calls into question whether they can still make the same kinds of signings when they get out of the penalty box.
Looking at the rankings of the Cleveland, Seattle and Arizona farm systems, this reinforces my view those teams will be receptive to trades where they get younger players with lots of major league control still left in exchange for more accomplished players with less control time left. The farm system information reinforces the other consideration, which is that all three are dealing with payroll constraints.
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"I am your retribution."
It makes sense to me that Cleveland might be willing to sell a starting pitcher.
I don't really understand how Seattle does.
Arizona would undoubtably love to be out of Greinke's contract or at least a large portion of it.
Seattle's GM has pretty much said Paxton is available. In contrast, he is holding on to Haniger, the difference being the extra two years of control. Their whole approach suggests they would have interest in Paxton for Newcomb plus.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
jpx7 (11-12-2018)
Pache 53m
Soroka 43m
Riley 43m
Wright 42m
Anderson 40m
Gohara 39m
Waters 28m
Touissant 28m
Wilson 22m
Allard 16m
Wentz 14m
Contreras 14m
this would make Riley, Wright, Gohara as my favored trade chips.
This is one of the main reasons why FG has the best prospect info in the public sphere. Their FV values are consistent and have actual meaning. They don’t assign 50s to 100 guys in each draft.
Yup. And when I look at these lists and disagree with where a Braves prospect is pegged, I try to find another Braves prospect that I disagree about in the other direction. Otherwise blind homerism takes over.
One of the things people misunderstand about projecting prospects and forecasting in general is you're always going to have forecasting mistakes, but you want to avoid systematic bias.
Last edited by nsacpi; 11-12-2018 at 12:31 PM.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Oh come on, you don't think........ Brusdar Graterol is a 60 FV prospect? Thank God for MLB Pipeline, the safe haven where I can have my bias confirmation'd.
how would Newcomb plus Touki for Carrasco strike you.
I'd like that much more than a Kluber trade, if that would get it done.
It strikes me as not even close to enough
we'll see...I thing it would be a highly competitive bid
I just doubt that Newcomb is as valuable as an asset as your posts suggest. If he is, then that's fantastic.
yeah, i don't think newcomb has a lot of value league-wide.
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Sean does have 5 years of control remaining and is projected to be a 1.5-2 win pitcher next year. That means a raw value in the 75-100 million dollar range. Take out what he will make contractually (~25 million maybe?) for the surplus value. But I think a lot of GMs are associating a lot of risk with Newcomb, so I'm thinking they are valuing him at <50 million dollars. I say that, but usually the SV number is pretty spot on so maybe nsacpi is right and Newcomb does carry more value than we think.
Edit: This is also assuming he is a 1.5 win pitcher for the next 5 years. Its possible, and maybe more reasonable, to project him as something like 1.5, 1.5, 1, 1, .5 in which case that dramatically diminishes his value.
That's the part of being a GM we really can't simulate. We don't actually know how much value guys carry.
I would think there would be skepticism about Newcomb league wide, which makes him the more likely candidate to hold and see if he can replicate his first half. But maybe he's beloved.
I just tend to think that if there is a guy that a fanbase and front office seems willing to deal that the rest of the league isn't clueless as to why.
Ehhhh, usually I think we can get pretty close to what the general consensus on a player is league wide, value-wise. Sometimes you can get a really young player like Newcomb who may have a wide range of projections that screw with the SV formula, but I would say that is the exception and not the rule. The SV formula is almost always pretty close to what actually ends up happening.
I'm in the camp that thinks there is a fair amount of difference of opinion among the front offices.
If we offered a choice of two of Newk, Anderson, Wright, Touki and Wilson to other major league teams, there wouldn't be a strong consensus in who they chose. Even if you threw out the teams that are rebuilding and don't care about 2019.
So I would offer a choice of any two of those five to the Mariners for Paxton.
And same offer to the Indians for Carrasco or Bauer.
I think we would have a good chance of striking a deal on that basis. And I think Newcomb would be one of the players chosen by the other team.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
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