Greinke plus Peralta

[Chico]

I think a Grinke deal has more legs than any other I've seen. AA has acted as a capitalist in the past with teams looking to shed payroll and he loves the contract swaps. Also, Grienke has a limited no trade blocking 15 teams. I doubt the Braves are on that list.

AA could really be in the driver's seat as one of the few teams who aren't blocked by the no trade and are able to take on salary.

Peralta coming back would be a must as it would fill the corner OF job. Lamb or Bradley could be involved as welll. Julio or Oday could be involved on our end for salary purposes.

[bravesfanforlife88]

I think a Grinke deal has more legs than any other I've seen. AA has acted as a capitalist in the past with teams looking to shed payroll and he loves the contract swaps. Also, Grienke has a limited no trade blocking 15 teams. I doubt the Braves are on that list.

AA could really be in the driver's seat as one of the few teams who aren't blocked by the no trade and are able to take on salary.

Peralta coming back would be a must as it would fill the corner OF job. Lamb or Bradley could be involved as welll. Julio or Oday could be involved on our end for salary purposes.

The more you think of it, the more it makes sense....last year we did the contract swaps of Kemp for McCarthy, Gonzalez, and Kazmir....McCarthy actually turned out to be big for us early in the season along with Culberson... Greinke could be a big add for us at the top of the rotation....

Greinke, Bradley, and Peralta would be a big haul for us. Then sign Grandal.

Inciarte CF
Acuna LF
Freeman 1B
Peralta RF
Camargo 3B
Grandal C
Albies 2B
Swanson SS

Culberson
Flowers
Duvall

Greinke
Folty
Gausman
Newk (if not in the Greinke deal)
Soroka,Wilson.Touki,Freid, Gohara fight it out for the last 1 or 2 spots.

Bradley
Viz
Minter
Sobotka
Venters
Biddle
Carle
O'Day
Winkler

I don't like that we did not upgrade the bench. But the BP should be better, the rotation got better, we got better at C and cOF.

[Enscheff]

I agree that the Braves almost certainly wouldn't take on Greinke's entire contract. I'm not sure how much the DBacks would have to take on, but I going to assume it would be enough to facilitate the Braves adding Ramos/Grandal.

If we assume:

- the Braves 2019 opening day payroll will be $120M-$125M
- the Braves already have ~$82M of that accounted for
- the Braves need $20M in 2019 for C, bench and BP additions
- the proposed Greinke/Peralta package has a total surplus value of ~$25M
- the combined 2019 salary for Greinke/Peralta is $42M

That puts the Braves right at $125M, and essentially no room to add a C or anything else.

To make it work, the DBacks would have to send the Braves at least $20M for 2019, and similar sums for 2020 and 2021, or ~$60M total.

That cash increases the surplus value of the package to ~$85M.

Do the Braves want to send $85M in prospect capital for Peralta and Greinke on a 3/45 deal?

Seems like a bad decision, and I would prefer signing Grandal/Ramos, signing Brantley/Cutch, and trading for Paxton for around the same opening day payroll figure. Paxton is younger and better than Greinke, and I see no real upside to Peralta over Brantley/Cutch.

[JxnMissFan]

I agree that the Braves almost certainly wouldn't take on Greinke's entire contract. I'm not sure how much the DBacks would have to take on, but I going to assume it would be enough to facilitate the Braves adding Ramos/Grandal.

If we assume:

- the Braves 2019 opening day payroll will be $120M-$125M
- the Braves already have ~$82M of that accounted for
- the Braves need $20M in 2019 for C, bench and BP additions
- the proposed Greinke/Peralta package has a total surplus value of ~$25M
- the combined 2019 salary for Greinke/Peralta is $42M

That puts the Braves right at $125M, and essentially no room to add a C or anything else.

To make it work, the DBacks would have to send the Braves at least $20M for 2019, and similar sums for 2020 and 2021, or ~$60M total.

That cash increases the surplus value of the package to ~$85M.

Do the Braves want to send $85M in prospect capital for Peralta and Greinke on a 3/45 deal?

Seems like a bad decision, and I would prefer signing Grandal/Ramos, signing Brantley/Cutch, and trading for Paxton for around the same opening day payroll figure. Paxton is younger and better than Greinke, and I see no real upside to Peralta over Brantley/Cutch.

One wrinkle that may have already discussed in this thread. 62.5 million of this contract was deferred. He is due 12.5 million from 22 to 26. I'm not sure how to post links. If the Dbacks would eat the deferred money he would be a great deal. I'm assuming that the deferred money is worth around 10 million per year.

[Russ2dollas]

According to MLBTR, the DBacks are aggressively shopping Greinke: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/...ats-phils.html

We know the Braves need a cOF, and there is a lot of chatter about them also acquiring that "frontline starter" everyone always wants them to go after. Greinke is old, but he still approximates a "frontline starter".

Greinke is owed $95M over the next 3 years, is definitely in his decline phase, and is probably projected to produce around 9 wins over those 3 years (3.5, 3, 2.5). He represents a surplus value in the neighborhood of -$10M+ (yes, negative trade value).

Peralta has 2 years of arb control, will probably earn about $18M over those 2 years, and be projected to produce around 5-6 wins over those years. He represents a surplus value of ~$35M.

The Braves could blow their entire 2019 payroll on Greinke and Peralta ($40M+ total) while only giving up $25M in prospect capital. They could increase the package going back the the DBacks in exchange for cash that would allow them to spend a bit more on C and the bench.

No way do I want 3 years of Greinke, but that's a deal that could be out there if AA really wants to add a SP.

I believe the DBs are desperate for pitching. i think Walker is having TJ and is out for the year.

They might take JT back. Could JT + Newk get that done? They get rid of Grienke and can replace his innings and Walker's innings with some upside.

That gives us some money back to get a catcher.

My worry is it takes up too much space for us to get extensions done with the young guys.

[Russ2dollas]

I think it’s fair to think that there are free agent pitchers who we could get for less than Greinke.

I think you only make this deal if zona is desperate to move the money. And if that is the case then they are not eating much money.

Taking jt offsets 12 million. Maybe they take oday too but we might want him.

If we do this deal it’s probably setting up for all other moves to be trades for people under original team control.

[Russ2dollas]

The more you think of it, the more it makes sense....last year we did the contract swaps of Kemp for McCarthy, Gonzalez, and Kazmir....McCarthy actually turned out to be big for us early in the season along with Culberson... Greinke could be a big add for us at the top of the rotation....

Greinke, Bradley, and Peralta would be a big haul for us. Then sign Grandal.

Inciarte CF
Acuna LF
Freeman 1B
Peralta RF
Camargo 3B
Grandal C
Albies 2B
Swanson SS

Culberson
Flowers
Duvall

Greinke
Folty
Gausman
Newk (if not in the Greinke deal)
Soroka,Wilson.Touki,Freid, Gohara fight it out for the last 1 or 2 spots.

Bradley
Viz
Minter
Sobotka
Venters
Biddle
Carle
O'Day
Winkler

I don't like that we did not upgrade the bench. But the BP should be better, the rotation got better, we got better at C and cOF.

If inciarte hits first aa has failed in roster construction and/or managing snit

[thewupk]

I believe the DBs are desperate for pitching. i think Walker is having TJ and is out for the year.

They might take JT back. Could JT + Newk get that done? They get rid of Grienke and can replace his innings and Walker's innings with some upside.

That gives us some money back to get a catcher.

My worry is it takes up too much space for us to get extensions done with the young guys.

Greinke would be off the books before it's time for the young guys to make serious money.

[Oklahomabrave]

If we are dealing with the Dbacks I’d prefer to go after Ray as a back up plan to Paxton.

[clvclv]

If we are dealing with the Dbacks I’d prefer to go after Ray as a back up plan to Paxton.

I love Ray on fantasy teams, but would you really want to give up much for him in the real world? He's only made 32 starts once, and when you look at the Steamer projections for Ray and Newcomb side-by-side, is he THAT big an upgrade?

Ray - 31 starts, 176 IP, 11.32 Ks/9, 4.02 BBs/9, 3.63 FIP
Newcomb - 31 starts, 177 IP, 9.10 K/9, 4.46 BB/9, 4.30 FIP

If Newk improves his control a little, they're essentially the same Pitcher. I'm not saying he's going to, but teams looking at Ray don't have the pitching depth the Braves do and they'd be looking at him as a substantial upgrade to what they currently have - and he's certainly not an "Ace".

When you've also already got Gohara and Fried behind Newcomb, I don't see much of a reason to give up much for two years of Ray for more money.

[nsacpi]

Ray is significantly better than Newk.

Also the Dbacks are shopping Greinke not Ray. For self-evident reasons. They are motivated to move Greinke and maybe we can exploit that to land Peralta. I think Peralta should be our main target when talking with the Dbacks. Everything else is a means to that end.

[clvclv]

Ray is significantly better than Newk.

Also the Dbacks are shopping Greinke not Ray. For self-evident reasons. They are motivated to move Greinke and maybe we can exploit that to land Peralta. I think Peralta should be our main target when talking with the Dbacks. Everything else is a means to that end.

I wasn't arguing that Ray wasn't better - just that he's not someone I'd target. He's not so much better than Newcomb, Gohara, or Fried that I'd give up much to get him given the comparative lack of team control and the fact that I don't think he fits the TOR-type guy AA would be looking for if he wants someone to front the rotation.

If you can work out a Peralta deal involving Greinke and Peralta that's "fair", I get it - I wouldn't be particularly interested in giving up a whole lot if that were to change to a deal for Ray and Peralta is all.

[Southcack77]

I think the diamondbacks pu pu platter is a lot less attractive than the people who like it do.

Greinke is the least dominant ace being discussed with the most financial commitment through the greatest age.

Peralta is not any better than the free agents available.

[Oklahomabrave]

I think the diamondbacks pu pu platter is a lot less attractive than the people who like it do.

Greenie is the least dominant ace being discussed with the most commitment to the greatest age.

Peralta is not any better than the free agents available.

I agree. I’m not that high on a Dbacks deal in general and hope we look elsewhere

[clvclv]

Wrong place.

[Enscheff]

How much longer are folks going to use the “if he improves his control” line with Newk?

[Oklahomabrave]

How much longer are folks going to use the “if he improves his control” line with Newk?

Until he’s traded regardless of when that is.

[jsebe10]

Only thing I’m taking from the DBacks is Corbin..nothing else.

[Enscheff]

Only thing I’m taking from the DBacks is Corbin..nothing else.

You want the Braves to be the team who gives Corbin $100M+?

[zbhargrove]

Only thing I’m taking from the DBacks is Corbin..nothing else.

He's a FA not a Diamondback and barf... that'd be the dumbest signing of the off season if we pay premium dollars for Corbin who will almost certainly regress significantly.