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Thread: Braves sign Donaldson, 1 yr 23 million deal.

  1. #301
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    An interesting thought -

    Why isn't a one-year gamble for TWICE as much money on Donaldson with his injury worries worse than a one-year gamble for Bumgarner if it only costs you Fried and Allard?

    If your answer is something like "We've still got Camargo if Donaldson goes down", why is that any different than "We've still got Touki/Soroka/Wright/Gohara if Bumgarner goes down"?
    Last edited by clvclv; 11-28-2018 at 03:14 PM.
    Waters is intersting too. Would prefer a guy that projects to more power though. (2017 Draft Thread)

    If they don't make additions they can expect the same 3-5 win improvement they saw last year. That makes the Braves a 75-78 win team. (What's the best we could hope for in 2018?)


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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    he gave up the lowest percentage of hard contact last year...tells me it probably was not a fluke...he figured some out with the cutter, which allowed him to pitch inside to opposite handed hitters and set up his soft stuff away...sometimes you see those kinds of mid career adjustments
    Well his FIP was almost a full run above his ERA last year and historically he's about even and actually higher on his ERA (3.99 vs 3.84 FIP), so out performing his FIP is an anomaly. His BABIP was low. His HR/FB went from really bad during his last 3 seasons to his prime norm.

    Seems like a mirage to me, unless he really returned to his pre-bad self.

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    An interesting thought -

    Why is a one-year gamble for TWICE as much money on Donaldson with his injury worries worse than a one-year gamble for Bumgarner if it only costs you Fried and Allard?

    If your answer is something like "We've still got Camargo if Donaldson goes down", why is that any different than "We've still got Touki/Soroka/Wright/Gohara if Bumgarner goes down"?
    After what I saw from him last season, I would be okay trading Allard as one of the two pieces in that deal...
    " The 2018 Braves give fans reason to believe again." - Bowman

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    The rotation as stands is Folty, Gaus, Newk, Teheran and a young arm. Several extremely talented young arms will be ready to replace Teheran quickly, and also force Newk to figure it out or move to the BP.

    Unless someone is a clear upgrade over Newk (as was the case with Paxton), and can be acquired for Newk plus additional prospects, it makes zero sense to spend resources on another SP. If that SP is going to approximate what we expect from Newk or Soroka or Touki or Wright or Anderson (~2+ wins as is the case with Bumgarner or Gray), then it makes zero sense to acquire that SP.

    Either trade Newk plus others for Carrasco/Kluber/Bauer/Paxton/similar (maybe Greinke), or leave the rotation as is. There is no need to make this more complicated than it actually is.

    Just another off season where everyone blabbers on and on about acquiring a "front line starter".
    Last edited by Enscheff; 11-28-2018 at 02:19 PM.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    I analyzed Teheran's motion. He will be a CYA candidate in 2018-2020, and will be an extension candidate. Do not trade him -GovClintonTyree 12/17/15

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    The rotation as stands is Folty, Gaus, Newk, Folty and Teheran. Several extremely talented young arms will be ready to replace Teheran quickly, and also force Newk to figure it out or move to the BP.

    Unless someone is a clear upgrade over Newk (as was the case with Paxton), and can be acquired for Newk plus additional prospects, it makes zero sense to spend resources on another SP. If that SP is going to approximate what we expect from Newk or Soroka or Touki or Wright or Anderson (~2+ wins as is the case with Bumgarner or Gray), then it makes zero sense to acquire that SP.

    Either trade Newk plus others for Carrasco/Kluber/Bauer/Paxton/similar (maybe Greinke), or leave the rotation as is. There is no need to make this more complicated than it actually is.

    Just another off season where everyone blabbers on and on about acquiring a "front line starter".
    I’ll take 2 of Folty in the rotation lol. But I agree, if you can’t clearly upgrade the rotation then leave it alone.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Hudson2 View Post
    I’ll take 2 of Folty in the rotation lol. But I agree, if you can’t clearly upgrade the rotation then leave it alone.
    Ha, yes, I was thinking Fried or another young guy.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    I analyzed Teheran's motion. He will be a CYA candidate in 2018-2020, and will be an extension candidate. Do not trade him -GovClintonTyree 12/17/15

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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    Braves are contenders. Every spot on the roster matters.

    He doesn't have to be better than Newcomb, he can just be better than replacement level Teheran to help.

    Given that he's been a 1.5 WAR pitcher missing 100 IP the last two seasons, I think it's clear he is.

    So the Braves should look into it.

    I would not look him as a front line starter. But I would consider that there is a chance he could meet 2016 numbers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Braves are contenders. Every spot on the roster matters.

    He doesn't have to be better than Newcomb, he can just be better than replacement level Teheran to help.

    Given that he's been a 1.5 WAR pitcher missing 100 IP the last two seasons, I think it's clear he is.

    So the Braves should look into it.

    I would not look him as a front line starter. But I would consider that there is a chance he could meet 2016 numbers.
    The Braves literally have half a dozen guys who will be able to replace Teheran for free.

    This is basic resource management.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    I analyzed Teheran's motion. He will be a CYA candidate in 2018-2020, and will be an extension candidate. Do not trade him -GovClintonTyree 12/17/15

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    The Braves literally have half a dozen guys who will be able to replace Teheran for free.

    This is basic resource management.

    Can't do basic resource management without knowing the actual cost. AA is doing his due diligence here. I approve.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyTrain View Post
    Well his FIP was almost a full run above his ERA last year and historically he's about even and actually higher on his ERA (3.99 vs 3.84 FIP), so out performing his FIP is an anomaly. His BABIP was low. His HR/FB went from really bad during his last 3 seasons to his prime norm.

    Seems like a mirage to me, unless he really returned to his pre-bad self.
    he won't pitch to the same ERA. but he was successful even when looking at his FIP and xFIP. i know you did a really deep dive into his 3 prior years, but there's evidence that he made real changes and last year's success (tho not necessarily his ERA) was not a fluke.
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    I still would like to see Julio in the pen if we don’t deal him. I liked what I saw in the playoffs, albeit, just one inning. But it made me wonder how good he could be for one inning, airing it out.

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    Love this deal. Kudos to AA

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    Looks like he will hit second per DOB.
    "No thanks, I'd rather sit in the balcony" - Abe Lincoln

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tapate50 View Post
    Looks like he will hit second per DOB.
    #Braves are currently planning to bat Donaldson second, Freeman third and Acuņa either first or fourth. Albies and Inciarte also leadoff options.

    Inciarte should stay in the 7 or 8 hole with Swanson.

    Albies isn't a leadoff hitter either.

    I say we go and get a masher for LF to hit 4th and leave Acuna leading off.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    #Braves are currently planning to bat Donaldson second, Freeman third and Acuņa either first or fourth. Albies and Inciarte also leadoff options.

    Inciarte should stay in the 7 or 8 hole with Swanson.

    Albies isn't a leadoff hitter either.

    I say we go and get a masher for LF to hit 4th and leave Acuna leading off.
    I'd be okay with a good contact, high OBP guy for cOF

    Acuna
    cOF
    Freeman
    Donaldson
    Albies
    Inciarte
    Swanson
    Flowers/McCann
    " The 2018 Braves give fans reason to believe again." - Bowman

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    I'd be okay with a good contact, high OBP guy for cOF

    Acuna
    cOF
    Freeman
    Donaldson
    Albies
    Inciarte
    Swanson
    Flowers/McCann
    Acuna, JD, and Freeman are our best hitters. I like them batting 1-3

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    Acuna, JD, and Freeman are our best hitters. I like them batting 1-3
    i understand wanting acuņa in a run-producing spot like #4, but i also understand wanting him to have the most ABs.
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    Hopefully AA adds a cOF worthy of batting leadoff so Acuna can be slotted down in the 4 slot.

    I suppose going cheap by sticking Markakis and his .350 OBP in front of JD/Freeman/Acuna wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    I analyzed Teheran's motion. He will be a CYA candidate in 2018-2020, and will be an extension candidate. Do not trade him -GovClintonTyree 12/17/15

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    #Braves are currently planning to bat Donaldson second, Freeman third and Acuņa either first or fourth. Albies and Inciarte also leadoff options.

    Inciarte should stay in the 7 or 8 hole with Swanson.

    Albies isn't a leadoff hitter either.

    I say we go and get a masher for LF to hit 4th and leave Acuna leading off.
    Offer Harper 6 years and we’re done. We can make it with no other additions if we sign Harper. But, we won’t.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheRunningAgent View Post
    Offer Harper 6 years and we’re done. We can make it with no other additions if we sign Harper. But, we won’t.
    6 years? Try doubling that.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    I analyzed Teheran's motion. He will be a CYA candidate in 2018-2020, and will be an extension candidate. Do not trade him -GovClintonTyree 12/17/15

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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