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Thread: Braves sign Donaldson, 1 yr 23 million deal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    Is this a real comment? Last 5 years JD has more fWAR than Harper or Machado even missing almost an entire season... Segura barely sniffs his jock
    na bro segura is easily better based on niners’ own metrics. real numbers guy.
    "You show your bias against me with your consistently negative reaction to my brazen lies."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    na bro segura is easily better based on niners’ own metrics. real numbers guy.
    You and a lot of other people here are what is wrong with today’s fans. Always trying to cram down your nerdy advanced stats down everyone’s throat. If someone doesn’t use them or used a different metric the reaction is always to hurl insults and say that person is stupid. There is one person on the board who doesn’t behave this way and that’s thewupk. I have actually grown to like him over the years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by zbhargrove View Post
    Is this a real comment? Last 5 years JD has more fWAR than Harper or Machado even missing almost an entire season... Segura barely sniffs his jock
    So then whatever an fWAR is would mean he is a better player than Manny and Bryce?

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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    You and a lot of other people here are what is wrong with today’s fans. Always trying to cram down your nerdy advanced stats down everyone’s throat. If someone doesn’t use them or used a different metric the reaction is always to hurl insults and say that person is stupid. There is one person on the board who doesn’t behave this way and that’s thewupk. I have actually grown to like him over the years.
    What. I thought we were friends. Maybe you are implying that I am not a nerd and don’t fit the population
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    So then whatever an fWAR is would mean he is a better player than Manny and Bryce?
    Bryce is pretty overrated and wasn't even the best player on his own team. I mean the talent is there and he put up an insane 2015. But at some point you have to look at the production on the field. And what he's done doesn't warrant some thinking he's one of the best players in the game. He had a ton of hype and he's hitting FA at a young age. That's what is really fueling these monster contract talks. But on the field production? Well he has the 10th best WAR among outfielders over the last three years. Between JD Martinez and Tommy Pham. His WRC+ is 9th among OFers between Cepedes and Blackmon.

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    10 yr, $185 million Extension zbhargrove's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    So then whatever an fWAR is would mean he is a better player than Manny and Bryce?
    Over the past 5 years, I'd say he has been pretty clearly as good or better than either player. Really looking at almost any stat you want to look at... including MVPs won
    Last edited by zbhargrove; 01-09-2019 at 11:07 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    You and a lot of other people here are what is wrong with today’s fans. Always trying to cram down your nerdy advanced stats down everyone’s throat. If someone doesn’t use them or used a different metric the reaction is always to hurl insults and say that person is stupid. There is one person on the board who doesn’t behave this way and that’s thewupk. I have actually grown to like him over the years.
    His old school stats are much better than Segura's as well when healthy ace

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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    So then whatever an fWAR is would mean he is a better player than Manny and Bryce?
    Does this help you? JD's 2017... 33 homers with a .270 average and a .944 OPS... in only 113 games

    2016... .284 BA .953 OPS and 37 homers

    2015... .297 .939 OPS and 41 homers

    2018 data can't be used because he wasn't healthy until September when he was hitting the cover off the ball again.

    Seguras last 3 years 2018: .755 OPS
    2017: .776 OPS
    2016: .867 OPS

    He hit .300 or better each year with 33, 22 and 20 SBs respectively... obviously a ton less power and was not as good defender.

    I guess those extra 15-25 SBs and 5 to 30 points in batting average really trump JDs huge power, elite defense, and game changing run production... man your classic stats really got me... how about you simply just look at the stats yourself before you post. You would see that he has been on par or better than Harper and Machado as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    You and a lot of other people here are what is wrong with today’s fans. Always trying to cram down your nerdy advanced stats down everyone’s throat. If someone doesn’t use them or used a different metric the reaction is always to hurl insults and say that person is stupid. There is one person on the board who doesn’t behave this way and that’s thewupk. I have actually grown to like him over the years.
    na, i think ignorance is a bigger problem. what are you using to claim segura's better? i asked before and, shockingly, didn't get an answer. i really couldn't care less who you like or who hurts your fee fees. trash advanced stats all you want, if you have a better way of evaluating players - offer it up. what have you seen that tells you segura is better? it's obvious to you, so i'm curious what your great mind has seen that says that. i want to learn.
    "You show your bias against me with your consistently negative reaction to my brazen lies."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    There is an argument that the Phillies moves have drastically improved their defense, which was their biggest weakness.

    They've also improved their depth of hitters, I think.

    If they were to upgrade their 3B defense they might have plugged their last leaky bolt.
    Have they though?

    I don't think Segura is much of an improvement on defense. He was a positive defender last year, but that is likely an outlier. He's rated pretty bad for 3 of the last 4 years.

    As for Cutch, he was below average last year in his 1st season playing RF. Granted, the Phillies had Hoskins playing LF last year, but I'm not sure how much improvement is significant going from awful to below average. Who knows, may be Cutch rates better playing half his games in a smaller park.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Have they though?

    I don't think Segura is much of an improvement on defense. He was a positive defender last year, but that is likely an outlier. He's rated pretty bad for 3 of the last 4 years.

    As for Cutch, he was below average last year in his 1st season playing RF. Granted, the Phillies had Hoskins playing LF last year, but I'm not sure how much improvement is significant going from awful to below average. Who knows, may be Cutch rates better playing half his games in a smaller park.
    It's usually easier to just look at the overall picture.

    Last year the Phillies got 4.8 fWAR out of Hoskins and Santana. Having Hoskins move to 1st and Cutch take his place in the OF I'd peg them to combine for 6 fWAR in 2019.

    Segura is likely a 2 to 2.5 WAR increase over the crap they had at short last year.

    So they have likely improved their team by 3 - 3.5 wins just with those moves. They are better but they aren't at the level of the Braves or Nats yet imo. Adding Machado or Harper for example would change things for sure but we aren't there yet.

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    I got Rhys Hoskins bat being worth about 4.6 WAR with about a negative 1.8 in the OF to get to his 2.8 WAR. He was roughly neutral at 1B. So subtract Santana's 2.8 WAR and that leaves about 1.8 WAR improvement at 1B.

    McCutchen put up 2.6 WAR mostly playing center last year so he should fill in for the missing 2.8 in the lineup without much loss.

    The Phillies SS were worth .7 WAR. Segura should put up 2.5-3.5 wins. So a gain of about 2 WAR is reasonable projection with health.

    Add 1.5 wins for Robertson and they've added about 5 wins.

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    Robertson, McCutchen, Segura are good moves but unless they add Harper or Machado, they havent improved THAT much imo.

    And back to Donaldson. I liked it, but if we have to go super cheap at OF and miss on Realmuto, it's not good. But i think we splurge more next winter with alot of money coming off the books. In a much better FA class as well.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Heyward View Post
    Robertson, McCutchen, Segura are good moves but unless they add Harper or Machado, they havent improved THAT much imo.

    And back to Donaldson. I liked it, but if we have to go super cheap at OF and miss on Realmuto, it's not good. But i think we splurge more next winter with alot of money coming off the books. In a much better FA class as well.
    I feel their improvement is significant. On paper they are a better team than last year but the Braves and Nats should grade out higher. Could be a tough division.

    Donaldson without a legit cOF or getting JTR is a failure. No way around that.

    I think we get a long term solution at 3B next year in Fa in either Areanado or Rendon. All the evidence points to AA seeing Camargo as more of a super utility guy and not believing in Riley as the future.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    It's usually easier to just look at the overall picture.

    Last year the Phillies got 4.8 fWAR out of Hoskins and Santana. Having Hoskins move to 1st and Cutch take his place in the OF I'd peg them to combine for 6 fWAR in 2019.

    Segura is likely a 2 to 2.5 WAR increase over the crap they had at short last year.

    So they have likely improved their team by 3 - 3.5 wins just with those moves. They are better but they aren't at the level of the Braves or Nats yet imo. Adding Machado or Harper for example would change things for sure but we aren't there yet.
    I can agree with that, I just don't see their defense as improving all that much with the moves they've made so far.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    I can agree with that, I just don't see their defense as improving all that much with the moves they've made so far.
    Well they improved two spots by switching Hoskins and signing Cutch. SS is a push at worst imo. Is it significant? We'll see.

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    I have always valued guys like Segura who have speed and a great contact rate. He isn’t going mash and drive in a ton of runs, but I love those types of players. It’s difficult to quantify which player is better between Segura and Josh D because they bring different things to the table. Segura is a table setter and Josh is the one who clears it. I like my eyes and watching baseball. I know that isn’t preferred anymore which makes me wonder why are games actually played in this day and age of genius fans and statistics which tell us EVERYTHING.

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    So to answer. There isnít data driven numbers to support my opinion of Segura being better than Donaldson. So I guess I am wrong. Segura is basically a replacement level player.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    So to answer. There isn’t data driven numbers to support my opinion of Segura being better than Donaldson. So I guess I am wrong. Segura is basically a replacement level player.
    Nice hyperbole. Segura is a good player. JD is an all-star level player.

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    10 yr, $185 million Extension zbhargrove's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    So to answer. There isn’t data driven numbers to support my opinion of Segura being better than Donaldson. So I guess I am wrong. Segura is basically a replacement level player.
    No one ever said Segura was a replacement level player... you're so ridiculous. However, Josh Donaldson is a top 5 player in MLB if he's healthy and he's proven that with the eyeball test and the statistics. You say you don't even watch the games anymore, so how do you even have an eyeball test to go from?

    But thank you for finally admitting you basically have no idea what you're talking about.
    Enscheff is the most brilliant baseball mind of our time. No seriously. he's fantastic and really remarkable. You're going to love him. Magnificent. Really great.

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