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Thread: Braves sign Donaldson, 1 yr 23 million deal.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    I have always valued guys like Segura who have speed and a great contact rate. He isn’t going mash and drive in a ton of runs, but I love those types of players. It’s difficult to quantify which player is better between Segura and Josh D because they bring different things to the table. Segura is a table setter and Josh is the one who clears it. I like my eyes and watching baseball. I know that isn’t preferred anymore which makes me wonder why are games actually played in this day and age of genius fans and statistics which tell us EVERYTHING.
    1) You personal preference on what types of players you enjoy watching is fine. I completely understand the aesthetic to those types of players.

    2) It's not difficult to quantify which player is better between those who have a different style of playing

    3) Games are played because these players still have to actually perform


    The disconnect here is that there is a difference between what some fans enjoy watching and what actually wins baseball games. Contact and speed is pretty and exciting. Sometimes those players don't do **** for you offensively (Juan Pierre) and sometimes they do (Ichiro). Sometimes high strikeout mashers are an absolute black hole (recent Chris Davis seasons) and sometimes they can carry an offense (Adam Dunn most of his career). That's the beauty of advanced stats. They take the aesthetics and your personal feelings out and just give you raw performance. And that performance is what fuels teams to victory.

  2. #382
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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    So to answer. There isnt data driven numbers to support my opinion of Segura being better than Donaldson. So I guess I am wrong. Segura is basically a replacement level player.
    so you've got nothing except the games that you don't even watch. gotcha. you were just so sure i thought you had maybe a decent reason. come to find out, you're also just looking at a statline, but one that isn't as advanced and broken down.

    way to throw in a straw man at the end as well; you're in your prime form.
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    Top 5 are you crazy! Trout, Machado, Yelich, Arenado, the real JD, Betts, Goldschmidt, Jose Ramirez, and Bregman without a doubt are all better. Harper probably is too although I think hes overrated. Hes top 5 in 3B though if thats what you mean.

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    Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is. jpx7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    Top 5 are you crazy! Trout, Machado, Yelich, Arenado, the real JD, Betts, Goldschmidt, Jose Ramirez, and Bregman without a doubt are all better. Harper probably is too although I think he’s overrated. He’s top 5 in 3B though if that’s what you mean.
    Before his injury-plagued 2018, he was most certainly top-five in all MLB. JD Martinez doesn’t even play defence (nor, really, does Harper).
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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    Before his injury-plagued 2018, he was most certainly top-five in all MLB. JD Martinez doesn’t even play defence (nor, really, does Harper).
    Sure, but his premise begins with “when/if” he is healthy and it is a weak argument right off the bat. Literally everything has the if, when, or what attached to it. That’s been the common theme around this board since it was erected.

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    10 yr, $185 million Extension zbhargrove's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    Top 5 are you crazy! Trout, Machado, Yelich, Arenado, the real JD, Betts, Goldschmidt, Jose Ramirez, and Bregman without a doubt are all better. Harper probably is too although I think he’s overrated. He’s top 5 in 3B though if that’s what you mean.
    That's not what I mean... he's been better than all of those you've mentioned in the past 5 years except Trout and possibly Betts

    At the moment Ramirez and Yelich are probably better but they need to do it consistently a couple more years to prove it

    Without a doubt? He is easily on the same level or better as Machado and Bregman.... and he is certainly better than Arenado and Goldschmidt

    Also, I'd certainly take Harper but its shocking how overrated he is.... Machado is overrated as well and I want nothing to do with him
    Last edited by zbhargrove; 01-10-2019 at 01:29 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    Sure, but his premise begins with “when/if” he is healthy and it is a weak argument right off the bat. Literally everything has the if, when, or what attached to it. That’s been the common theme around this board since it was erected.
    Its not a premise... he came back finally 100% with Cleveland and played at the exact same caliber as when he was a top 5 player
    Enscheff is the most brilliant baseball mind of our time. No seriously. he's fantastic and really remarkable. You're going to love him. Magnificent. Really great.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NinersSBChamps View Post
    Top 5 are you crazy! Trout, Machado, Yelich, Arenado, the real JD, Betts, Goldschmidt, Jose Ramirez, and Bregman without a doubt are all better. Harper probably is too although I think he’s overrated. He’s top 5 in 3B though if that’s what you mean.
    A healthy Josh Donaldson produced 34.3 fWAR in a 5 season span. I know you aren't in to "the analytics", but I don't think you realize how absurdly stupid good that is. That is easily better than any 5 year span of any of the players you listed except Trout. Donaldson was an absolute machine before he was hurt.

    You're wrong about Donaldson. You can argue that maybe he's facing some aging decline or that his injuries may slow him down, but from 2013 to his injury last year Donaldson was arguably the 2nd best player in baseball.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    A healthy Josh Donaldson produced 34.3 fWAR in a 5 season span. I know you aren't in to "the analytics", but I don't think you realize how absurdly stupid good that is. That is easily better than any 5 year span of any of the players you listed except Trout. Donaldson was an absolute machine before he was hurt.

    You're wrong about Donaldson. You can argue that maybe he's facing some aging decline or that his injuries may slow him down, but from 2013 to his injury last year Donaldson was arguably the 2nd best player in baseball.
    bump with an indeed for the quoted post
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    bump with an indeed for the quoted post
    The fact that that 5 season span was 3 years ago means nothing?

    There's no reason not to expect Markakis to repeat his 2018 first half then, right? After all, it was only 4 years ago when he was still good in Baltimore.
    Waters is intersting too. Would prefer a guy that projects to more power though. (2017 Draft Thread)

    If they don't make additions they can expect the same 3-5 win improvement they saw last year. That makes the Braves a 75-78 win team. (What's the best we could hope for in 2018?)


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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    The fact that that 5 season span was 3 years ago means nothing?

    There's no reason not to expect Markakis to repeat his 2018 first half then, right? After all, it was only 4 years ago when he was still good in Baltimore.
    What? The end of that 5 year span was 2017. I wouldn't call that 3 years ago. Last year was lost to injury but he put up no less than 5.1 WAR in the previous 5 years. He's an MVP candidate.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    What? The end of that 5 year span was 2017. I wouldn't call that 3 years ago. Last year was lost to injury but he put up no less than 5.1 WAR in the previous 5 years. He's an MVP candidate.
    2017 5.1 WAR
    2018 Injured 1.3 WAR in 50 games.

    Civ: He hasn't been good in three years.

    What can you do?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    2017 5.1 WAR
    2018 Injured 1.3 WAR in 50 games.

    Civ: He hasn't been good in three years.

    What can you do?
    Well...

    3 years ago was in the middle of the 5 year span, so there's that....?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    2017 5.1 WAR
    2018 Injured 1.3 WAR in 50 games.

    Civ: He hasn't been good in three years.

    What can you do?
    And another point which is the biggest for me

    2015: 154 WRC+
    2016: 157 WRC+
    2017: 151 WRC+

    149 WRC+ when he came back last year. Guy is an elite hitter. Acuna-Freeman-JD is going to be a sick trio

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    He is also playing for what could be his last contract.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dalyn View Post
    He is also playing for what could be his last extension
    FTFY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    2017 5.1 WAR
    2018 Injured 1.3 WAR in 50 games.

    Civ: He hasn't been good in three years.

    What can you do?
    Everybody falls in love with the projections when their team hasn't done enough to improve. Your 1.3 WAR in 2018 translates to 3.9 in 2019 IF he plays 150 games - which he hasn't done in 3 years.

    Which one of you has him for 150 games this year? Not a one of your beloved projection systems do.

    Markakis could repeat his first career All-Star performance if Pitchers make more mistakes than they did against him last season, and Folty could win the 2019 NL Cy Young if everybody chases every slider in the dirt 2 feet off the plate.

    *itch at me all you like - The Blackjack Dealer posted the current win projections that have the Braves in fourth place. Placing Donaldson in your Top 5 2019 MVP candidates is as "homer" and "pozzy" as it gets. Chipper posted exactly three 4+ win seasons after he turned 33, and he was about as slam-dunk a choice for the HOF as they come - and one of those seasons was when he flirted with hitting .400 for five months and won the batting crown. Donaldson's always been a helluva player when healthy, but he can't carry Chipper's jock - the precious numbers bear it out. Through their age 32 seasons, Donaldson has delivered 36.5 fWAR compared to Chipper's 52.6, and after he turned 33 Chipper never finished in the Top 5 in MVP voting (higher than 12th exactly once).

    Do you believe in the numbers or don't you???
    Waters is intersting too. Would prefer a guy that projects to more power though. (2017 Draft Thread)

    If they don't make additions they can expect the same 3-5 win improvement they saw last year. That makes the Braves a 75-78 win team. (What's the best we could hope for in 2018?)


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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    the projection systems have Donaldson reaching 4 WAR by playing 130 games and hitting halfway between his 2017 and 2018 numbers...seems about right to me
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    I would rather watch Donaldson play for us rather than the more mundane value options.
    From your favorite message board poster (me).

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Everybody falls in love with the projections when their team hasn't done enough to improve. Your 1.3 WAR in 2018 translates to 3.9 in 2019 IF he plays 150 games - which he hasn't done in 3 years.

    Which one of you has him for 150 games this year? Not a one of your beloved projection systems do.

    Markakis could repeat his first career All-Star performance if Pitchers make more mistakes than they did against him last season, and Folty could win the 2019 NL Cy Young if everybody chases every slider in the dirt 2 feet off the plate.

    *itch at me all you like - The Blackjack Dealer posted the current win projections that have the Braves in fourth place. Placing Donaldson in your Top 5 2019 MVP candidates is as "homer" and "pozzy" as it gets. Chipper posted exactly three 4+ win seasons after he turned 33, and he was about as slam-dunk a choice for the HOF as they come - and one of those seasons was when he flirted with hitting .400 for five months and won the batting crown. Donaldson's always been a helluva player when healthy, but he can't carry Chipper's jock - the precious numbers bear it out. Through their age 32 seasons, Donaldson has delivered 36.5 fWAR compared to Chipper's 52.6, and after he turned 33 Chipper never finished in the Top 5 in MVP voting (higher than 12th exactly once).

    Do you believe in the numbers or don't you???
    Do you abuse opioids or something? What are you even taking about?

    Chipper Jones? Lol. Ok.

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