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Thread: 2019 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #341
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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    And those extra 2nd and 3rd round picks don’t net you much in pool money so really you are just punting a year of development and dropping one spot for no reason. I think you could employ HH strategy on the 1st round if there isn’t anything you like at that point. Grab a hard commit guy with talent and toss some money his way pretty much knowing he will pass. Anything after the first round seems neutral at best.
    I don't know, 2nd round picks are worth well over a million dollars until you get around pick ~70. Under Harry's scenario of 5, 11, 42, 46, 80, and 91 that would be a draft pool of ~15.3 million just from those six picks and another ~2 million from picks in the 4th-10th rounds. And that isn't included any competitive balance or compensation picks you might have that could run it up to the 20 million dollar range. The 2nd and 3rd round picks would only amount to be 2.5 million of that intial 15.3, but in terms of draft pools 2.5 million can make a major difference between getting the guys you want and having to settle.

    I'm not arguing its a good strategy because I made that post in jest, but I just don't want to discount how valuable those pool dollars can be in draft strategy. The Diamondbacks are in position to get multiple high end prospects this year on the back of their 16 million dollar draft pool. A good chunk of that is because of them having 6 picks in the 33-93 range.

  2. #342
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    I don't know, 2nd round picks are worth well over a million dollars until you get around pick ~70. Under Harry's scenario of 5, 11, 42, 46, 80, and 91 that would be a draft pool of ~15.3 million just from those six picks and another ~2 million from picks in the 4th-10th rounds. And that isn't included any competitive balance or compensation picks you might have that could run it up to the 20 million dollar range. The 2nd and 3rd round picks would only amount to be 2.5 million of that intial 15.3, but in terms of draft pools 2.5 million can make a major difference between getting the guys you want and having to settle.

    I'm not arguing its a good strategy because I made that post in jest, but I just don't want to discount how valuable those pool dollars can be in draft strategy. The Diamondbacks are in position to get multiple high end prospects this year on the back of their 16 million dollar draft pool. A good chunk of that is because of them having 6 picks in the 33-93 range.
    Yes but how much are the 2 extra picks after round 1 worth. 1.5 - 2 million. I guess if you are picking towards the top then round 2 could be nice. But still is it enough to punt that development time.
    Coppy

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    New Fangraphs mock with a ton of info. Probably my favorite mock from a Braves perspective: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0/

    9. Braves – Hunter Bishop, LF, Arizona State
    The Braves have been tied to a number of players that go ahead of them here, with Bishop the last one among them. They may opt for a pitcher if Bishop goes seventh or eighth.

    21. Braves – Quinn Priester, RHP, Cary-Grove HS (IL)
    Priester has lots of landing spots and given Allan’s demands and below average command, has more possible landing spots, so sources are calling him the likely top prep pitcher off the board. Wilson and Florida prep RHP Brennan Malone (who recently hit 99 mph) both make some sense here as well.

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    The second to last thing I want to see from a draft prospect is them trying to light up the radar gun for scouts. The last thing I want to see from a draft prospect is that they went to college and compare to Cody Johnson.......
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  5. #345
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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ9 View Post
    New Fangraphs mock with a ton of info. Probably my favorite mock from a Braves perspective: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0/

    9. Braves – Hunter Bishop, LF, Arizona State
    The Braves have been tied to a number of players that go ahead of them here, with Bishop the last one among them. They may opt for a pitcher if Bishop goes seventh or eighth.

    21. Braves – Quinn Priester, RHP, Cary-Grove HS (IL)
    Priester has lots of landing spots and given Allan’s demands and below average command, has more possible landing spots, so sources are calling him the likely top prep pitcher off the board. Wilson and Florida prep RHP Brennan Malone (who recently hit 99 mph) both make some sense here as well.
    While the names keep changing, the overall strategy appears to be under slot college bat at 9, and an over slot prep arm at 21.

    Seems like a perfectly sound strategy, and I'm not in position to judge the actual names in those slots. Allan seems to have better current stuff than Priester, but as a cold weather arm Priester may have more projection similar to Soroka. As far as the college bat goes, the Braves seem primed to just take the best one that falls to them at 9.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/35/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

  6. #346
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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    Yes but how much are the 2 extra picks after round 1 worth. 1.5 - 2 million. I guess if you are picking towards the top then round 2 could be nice. But still is it enough to punt that development time.
    Development time is a relative concept because the prospects require varying amounts of time to reach ML play-ability. Let's say you punt a pick one year for some reason, but if you didn't that pick would have been a HS pitcher. Then the next year you use that replacement pick to take a college player who not only needs less development time overall but ends up ML ready sooner than the HS pick that could have been from the previous year.

    But to me it's about having a player that you really like available at the time you pick who will sign for the money that you have assigned for the pick. If you get to your pick, let's say 10th, and all the players that you have rated for there are either gone or asking for too much money and you have a choice between taking a lesser rated player who's going to want 10th money OR punting thw pick for a better opportunity and more financial flexibility for the next year, then I think you should at least consider that option.

    It seems to me that the top 5 no doubt guys are usually pretty safe picks in current times to at least make some time in the ML. It's not a given because of injury, especially to pitchers, but it's more scientific now than it has ever been. Then, picks after that begin to be influenced by uncertainty and signability concerns and it's more hit or miss. Teams pass on better players because they don't think they can sign them.

    So, let's say that a team expects to get draft picks from year to year in the 15-30 range. They could draft guys, let's say at 15 one year and 25 another, and hope to find the next once in a lifetime guy like Trout or roll the dice on developmental guys who may get a cup of coffee here or there like Jason Hursh (31/2013), Lucas Sims (21/2012), Braxton Davidson (32/2014), Kolby Allard (14/2015), Sean Gilmartin (28/2011), Matt Lipka (35/2010). I would say that, under current rules, if you get to 20 this year and don't see what you consider to be a sure fire get, then punt the pick until next year, get another 20 (assuming you finish with relatively the same record Y/Y) and get your 21 (down one from the lost pick from the year before) and combine the money from the two picks to go after a much higher rated prospect, maybe a top ten guy who falls, so in effect instead of 2 prospects taken at 20 you end up with one rated as a ten taken at 20, plus one "signability" guy taken at 21.

  7. #347
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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ9 View Post
    New Fangraphs mock with a ton of info. Probably my favorite mock from a Braves perspective: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mock-draft-2-0/

    9. Braves – Hunter Bishop, LF, Arizona State
    The Braves have been tied to a number of players that go ahead of them here, with Bishop the last one among them. They may opt for a pitcher if Bishop goes seventh or eighth.

    21. Braves – Quinn Priester, RHP, Cary-Grove HS (IL)
    Priester has lots of landing spots and given Allan’s demands and below average command, has more possible landing spots, so sources are calling him the likely top prep pitcher off the board. Wilson and Florida prep RHP Brennan Malone (who recently hit 99 mph) both make some sense here as well.
    It sounds as if there is a little more uncertainty in the top 10 than maybe there was a month ago. That would be welcome news.
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  8. #348
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    Interesting write up by Perfect Game, ranking the top tools at the high school and college level: https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles...?article=16384

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  10. #349
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    Unless a bat we really like slides to us at 9, we could go college pitcher. There is an interesting group to potentially chose from: Lodolo, Manoah, Thompson, Rutledge
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    I took one more look at how teams have adjusted their drafting with the dissemination of data showing the greater riskiness (and lower returns) of pitchers taken in the draft.

    I looked at the top 60 picks in the last five drafts (2014-2018) and five drafts twenty years ago (1996-2000)

    In the 1996-2000 drafts pitchers accounted on average for 36 of the top 60 picks.

    In the 2014-2018 drafts pitchers accounted on average for 28 of the top 60 picks.

    That's a pretty pronounced change. It seems to me a sensible way to build a draft board is to have two lists (one for pitchers and one for hitters) and then when you merge those lists impose some sort of rule that pitchers can be only say 40% of the guys you are thinking of taking in the top 2-3 rounds.

    It is interesting in looking at the data for the last five years that the downward trend in # of pitchers taken among the top 60 appears to be still ongoing:

    2014 32 pitchers taken
    2015 29
    2016 28
    2017 25
    2018 24

    One last thought, as teams adjust to the information on risk associated with pitchers, at some point the expected returns (adjusted for risk) will equalize. The research based on historical data shows pitchers taken at various points generate less value than hitters taken at the same point. But the historical data may not be quite right for understanding how things stand now given the apparent adjustments teams are making.

    Looking at the top 15 projected by Fangraphs in its latest mock, I see 5 pitchers. Seems to me those 5 might be good value given how the adjustment process to relative risk/return of pitchers vs hitters has been playing out.

    Looking at Fangraphs' projected picks in the second half of the first round (picks 16-30) I see only 3 pitchers. OK, I think by now everyone understands my point.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 05-15-2019 at 10:16 AM.
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    1:11
    mark: What is the domino effect if Vaughn goes 1 to BAL?

    1:14
    Kiley McDaniel: Not completely sure, but my best guess would be:
    1. BAL – Vaughn
    2. KC – Rutschman
    3. CHW – Abrams
    4. MIA – Witt
    5. DET – Greene
    6. SD – Bleday

    1:14
    Kiley McDaniel: which, again, is just shuffling those top 6 hitters


    This somewhat reaffirms a comment I saw someone post in this thread a while ago along the lines of "the Braves pick 9th in an 8 man draft". There seems to be a clear Top 6 hitters, then Lodolo, then Bishop as the final FV 50 guy that a lot of teams aren't sold on as being a Top 10 pick.

    If it comes to the Braves pick and things shake out as expected, the most viable option may be to spread the 9/21/60 money around to 3 of the 40 guys ranked as 45s and go with a quantity over quality approach. If there is no true BPA at 9, then spreading the money out over 3 mediocre guys is probably the best tactic.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/35/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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  14. #352
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    1:11
    mark: What is the domino effect if Vaughn goes 1 to BAL?

    1:14
    Kiley McDaniel: Not completely sure, but my best guess would be:
    1. BAL – Vaughn
    2. KC – Rutschman
    3. CHW – Abrams
    4. MIA – Witt
    5. DET – Greene
    6. SD – Bleday

    1:14
    Kiley McDaniel: which, again, is just shuffling those top 6 hitters


    This somewhat reaffirms a comment I saw someone post in this thread a while ago along the lines of "the Braves pick 9th in an 8 man draft". There seems to be a clear Top 6 hitters, then Lodolo, then Bishop as the final FV 50 guy that a lot of teams aren't sold on as being a Top 10 pick.

    If it comes to the Braves pick and things shake out as expected, the most viable option may be to spread the 9/21/60 money around to 3 of the 40 guys ranked as 45s and go with a quantity over quality approach. If there is no true BPA at 9, then spreading the money out over 3 mediocre guys is probably the best tactic.

    I say we just draft two unsignable guys at 9 and 21. Don’t sign them and then tank the rest of the year. Have 2 top 10 picks and another pick at 22 plus a high 2nd rounder. Profit.
    Coppy

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    From the scouting reports, it does seem like Carroll is getting discounted a little bit. They all seem real solid on the hit\defensive tools. Seems the knock is size, and we have found that's not necessarily a death knell.
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  18. #354
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    1:11
    mark: What is the domino effect if Vaughn goes 1 to BAL?

    1:14
    Kiley McDaniel: Not completely sure, but my best guess would be:
    1. BAL – Vaughn
    2. KC – Rutschman
    3. CHW – Abrams
    4. MIA – Witt
    5. DET – Greene
    6. SD – Bleday

    1:14
    Kiley McDaniel: which, again, is just shuffling those top 6 hitters


    This somewhat reaffirms a comment I saw someone post in this thread a while ago along the lines of "the Braves pick 9th in an 8 man draft". There seems to be a clear Top 6 hitters, then Lodolo, then Bishop as the final FV 50 guy that a lot of teams aren't sold on as being a Top 10 pick.

    If it comes to the Braves pick and things shake out as expected, the most viable option may be to spread the 9/21/60 money around to 3 of the 40 guys ranked as 45s and go with a quantity over quality approach. If there is no true BPA at 9, then spreading the money out over 3 mediocre guys is probably the best tactic.
    I have faith that at least one of the teams drafting ahead of the Braves have gotten there because of boneheaded drafts, and that at least one will screw the pooch this year. Like Wright in 2017, someone will be available that ought not to be there.

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    Kiley’s watching Quinn Priester tonight. Just tweeted this:

    “Priester is 93-96 in the first, the perfect time for his best stuff (or tied for best) of the year and looks the part of the top prep pitcher in the draft. I count about 15 guys here that are special assistant, VP, director or GM”

    I’m starting to seriously doubt if he even makes it to us at 21.

  20. #356
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    Video of Priester’s first inning: https://twitter.com/pbrillinois/stat...294019078?s=21

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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ9 View Post
    Video of Priester’s first inning: https://twitter.com/pbrillinois/stat...294019078?s=21
    ENRICO
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ9 View Post
    Kiley’s watching Quinn Priester tonight. Just tweeted this:

    “Priester is 93-96 in the first, the perfect time for his best stuff (or tied for best) of the year and looks the part of the top prep pitcher in the draft. I count about 15 guys here that are special assistant, VP, director or GM”

    I’m starting to seriously doubt if he even makes it to us at 21.
    If there aren't any FV 50 bats at 9, they could take this guy or Allan at 9, and then go with a 45 college bat like Lango or Jung or Misner at 21.

    They can possibly float 1 of Allan or Priester to 21 with a $4M pre draft offer if they end up with Bishop at 9.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 05-16-2019 at 05:51 PM.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/35/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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    MLB Pipeline's new mock -- and it's not very exciting. This is that feared scenario where the top 8 players we'd all be happy with go first. Callis does talk, as Kiley reported, about Texas being interested in going heavy underslot at 8, so that seems to be our best hope: https://www.mlb.com/news/adley-rutsc...eline-coverage

    9. Braves: Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto (Texas) JC
    (Compensation for failure to sign 2018 first-rounder Carter Stewart)

    Atlanta wouldn't mind a shot at one of the top six hitters or Bishop. If that's not possible, it comes down to a college arm (Rutledge, West Virginia right-hander Alek Manoah) versus Baylor catcher Shea Langeliers. If Rutledge goes here, he matches Kevin Appier (No. 9 to the Royals in 1987) as the highest-drafted junior college pitcher ever.

    21. Braves: Logan Davidson, SS, Clemson

    College position players will comprise most of the selections in the 21-30 range. Davidson could go higher to clubs that focus on his raw power, speed and arm, though his wood-bat history scares some.

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    This draft class sucks.
    Coppy

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