2019 MLB Draft Thread

[Tapate50]

The Braves have averaged a top 10 pick over last 4 years (14, 3, 5, 8)

We desperately need to hit on one or two of them and I fear we wont

Hyperbole?

[Southcack77]

i do think in general they focused on acquiring pitching. they received a lot in trades and took a lot at the top of the draft for some years there (which i also think was BPA in some cases).

Braves had a void of major league caliber pitching prospects. It made sense for them to try and address that. It was also the type of high upside talent that was available for the currency they were spending.

all well and good to talk about Kris Bryant, but they were not in a position to draft Kris Bryant. And weren't in a position to trade for anyone of that caliber. Teams don't trade Kris Bryant much any more.

[nsacpi]

Braves had a void of major league caliber pitching prospects.

They were possibly traumatized by the injuries to Beachy, Medlen, Hanson and others that kept them from reaching their potential.

They also seem to have bought into their own myth making about the Braves Way and their being the gold standard franchise for developing pitching.

They seem not to have been as up to date as their industry counterparts on the latest data and analysis of the bust rates for pitching prospects relative to hitting prospects.

AND some of the hitters they would have liked to take with their first pick in some years got snatched by other teams picking just ahead of them.

[Enscheff]

We have to take each draft as it plays out.

How would any of you order these 8 players: Lodolo, Manoah, Rutledge, Thompson, Bishop, Langeliers, Stott and Carroll.

Is there someone else you would consider with the #9 pick.

My order: Lodolo, Manoah, Rutledge, Carroll, Bishop, Thompson, Langeliers, Stott. That's why I'm advocating for a pitcher with the #9 pick and would be happy with any of Lodolo, Manoah, or Rutledge.

I've also said we should try to get one of the Top 6 guys to drop to us and mentioned Abrams specifically as a local boy who might cooperate in such a scheme. But that's a long shot.

The players you listed are ranked by FG as:

Lodolo 7
Manoah 9
Rutledge 16
Thompson 15
Bishop 11
Langeliers 19
Stott 8
Carroll 13

Needless to say, you skipped several players that are more highly ranked. Additionally, it is just as likely guys in the 15-20 range can be floated down to 21 rather than reached for at 9. It’s also possible they get 2 guys from that list, or someone like Bleday or Greene slip to them somehow.

I would be surprised if the Braves take a pitcher at 9, and completely shocked if they took 2 pitchers at 9 and 21. Though it doesn’t really matter which goes 9 vs 21.

My guess is they take the best hitter available at 9, and the highest potential impact arm at 21. This will result in the Braves getting 2 Top ~15 talents at 9 and 21 because there probably isn’t a clear BPA at 9.

[sturg33]

i mean, not really. they'll be just fine, IMO, if zero of them produce anything.

Largely tha is to Frank Wren hitter signings

[nsacpi]

The players you listed are ranked by FG as:

Lodolo 7
Manoah 9
Rutledge 16
Thompson 15
Bishop 11
Langeliers 19
Stott 8
Carroll 13

Needless to say, you skipped several players that are more highly ranked. Additionally, it is just as likely guys in the 15-20 range can be floated down to 21 rather than reached for at 9.

I would be surprised if the Braves take a pitcher at 9, and completely shocked if they took 2 pitchers at 9 and 21.

My guess is they take the best hitter available at 9, and the highest potential impact arm at 21. This will result in the Braves getting 2 Top ~15 talents at 9 and 21 because there probably isn’t a clear BPA at 9.

I skipped the top 6. I'd be happy to take a position player like Abrams if somehow he dropped to 9.

[nsacpi]

Largely tha is to Frank Wren hitter signings

The international signings tend to be skewed toward position players, not just us but the whole industry. Having guys like Acuna, Albies and Camargo pan out has been very important. If that hadn't happened this would be a very lopsided (pitcher heavy) and unsuccessful rebuild.

[Jaw]

We have to take each draft as it plays out.

How would any of you order these 8 players: Lodolo, Manoah, Rutledge, Thompson, Bishop, Langeliers, Stott and Carroll.

Is there someone else you would consider with the #9 pick.

My order: Lodolo, Manoah, Rutledge, Carroll, Bishop, Thompson, Langeliers, Stott. That's why I'm advocating for a pitcher with the #9 pick and would be happy with any of Lodolo, Manoah, or Rutledge.

I've also said we should try to get one of the Top 6 guys to drop to us and mentioned Abrams specifically as a local boy who might cooperate in such a scheme. But that's a long shot.

Lodolo seems to be universally the highest rated of that group so I'll go him first
Stott
Rutledge
Caroll
Baty
Manoah
Bishop
Henderson
Jung

The more I look at what's available, the more I like Stott. Someone who can play SS in college and has a good hit tool has a good chance of making it somewhere.

[Enscheff]

I skipped the top 6. I'd be happy to take a position player like Abrams if somehow he dropped to 9.

You also somewhat arbitrarily skipped 10, 12, 14, 17 and 18.

I see it as no more likely the Braves reach for Thompson or Rutledge at 9 than reach for Priester or Allan at that spot. I’m hoping none of those arms is the pick at 9.

Bat at 9, arm at 21...maybe vise versa.

[Enscheff]

Lodolo seems to be universally the highest rated of that group so I'll go him first
Stott
Rutledge
Caroll
Baty
Manoah
Bishop
Henderson
Jung

The more I look at what's available, the more I like Stott. Someone who can play SS in college and has a good hit tool has a good chance of making it somewhere.

My opinion is Carroll may be the underrated guy at the moment. I also think Stott is more likely than the current groupthink.

[Tapate50]

If Lodolo is there I’d think he’s the pick. That would be true BPA unless something crazy happens with the top 6-7 guys

[CJ9]

If Lodolo is there I’d think he’s the pick. That would be true BPA unless something crazy happens with the top 6-7 guys

Maybe. Kiley mentioned that he's a very polarizing prospect, and his first two years at TCU weren't that exciting.

I'm wondering if them mocking Lodolo at 9 is because they've heard we like him, or if it really is all because he'd be a value there, as he mentioned.

[Southcack77]

With the #9 we will be choosing from Lodolo, Manoah, Rutledge, Thompson as far as pitchers go and Bishop, Langeliers, Stott, Carroll as far as hitters go.

I'd say there is a 90% chance our #9 pick will come from those 8. One or two might go to the two teams picking just ahead of us. I like this group of pitchers more than the hitters.

It's hard not to play along with the draft game.

I'd probably take Rutledge of the guys that you list and then pick one of those guys, Baty, Malone, Espino or Allan at 21.

I don't really like the college pitching in this draft outside of Rutledge.

[Super]

Largely tha is to Frank Wren hitter signings

lol, ok bud. not going down that path again. wren is god, i am aware.

[Southcack77]

The international signings tend to be skewed toward position players, not just us but the whole industry. Having guys like Acuna, Albies and Camargo pan out has been very important. If that hadn't happened this would be a very lopsided (pitcher heavy) and unsuccessful rebuild.

But they did hit. And they knew they were in the system when they made their decisions. And they also acquired other positional talent and have drafted for it.

And if they had spent their resources on hitting instead of pitching, not having Folty, Soroka, Fried, Touki, Newcomb and others might look pretty lopsided the other way.

Counterfactuals are interesting, but the bottom line is the Braves had a three year rebuild and exited it with a clear path to contention for 5-10 years. Maybe they made pretty decent decisions based on their superior knowledge of what their resources would buy than some want to give them credit for.

[Enscheff]

FG latest mock has the Braves taking Lodolo at 9 due to being good value there (passing on bats Bishop, Stott, Jung, Carroll, and Lango), and then taking Kody Hoese at 21. That follows the expected arm/bat theme at 9/21, but Hoese is yet another new name we haven't discussed here.

Hoese is a FV 45 college 3B out of Tulane. This is the blurb FG has on him, "Popup name has crazy numbers (1.357 OPS, 17 HR through 33 games) but was a draft eligible sophomore that went in the 35th round last year, will be 22 just after the draft. He has below average bat speed and beats up on bad pitching, so he's a 3rd rounder for most clubs, but could be a 2nd round money-saver for a progressive club with multiple picks."

This same mock has pitchers like Priester (18), Espino (25), Allan (26), and Malone (28) also available at or near the Braves pick at 21. I don't know enough about these guys to form any real opinions on who is better (even if several available bats sound much better than this Hoese kid), but if Lodolo is the clear BPA due to sliding a bit, I have no problem with this combination.

[clvclv]

The Fangraphs scouting report on Hoese is rough: Popup name has crazy numbers (1.357 OPS, 17 HR through 33 games) but was a draft eligible sophomore that went in the 35th round last year, will be 22 just after the draft. He has below average bat speed and beats up on bad pitching, so he's a 3rd rounder for most clubs, but could be a 2nd round money-saver for a progressive club with multiple picks.

Certainly not drawing a straight line between the two, but Jonathon India was a relative "nobody" - or afterthought at best - before he blew up his Junior season as well.

[Southcack77]

My opinion is Carroll may be the underrated guy at the moment. I also think Stott is more likely than the current groupthink.

To me, depends on how much power you think he will carry.

The frame to me suggests one should be skeptical.

[Enscheff]

But they did hit. And they knew they were in the system when they made their decisions. And they also acquired other positional talent and have drafted for it.

And if they had spent their resources on hitting instead of pitching, not having Folty, Soroka, Fried, Touki, Newcomb and others might look pretty lopsided the other way.

Counterfactuals are interesting, but the bottom line is the Braves had a three year rebuild and exited it with a clear path to contention for 5-10 years. Maybe they made pretty decent decisions based on their superior knowledge of what their resources would buy than some want to give them credit for.

Umm, the Braves rebuild succeeded because the Acuna and Albies lottery tickets hit big time (despite not being part of the rebuild), and Stewart gave the Braves Inciarte and Swanson. You conveniently failed to mention all the pitching that flamed out, and that the Braves somewhat miraculously hit on almost every single real position prospect in the system. They literally haven't had a top position prospect flame out, which almost never happens.

We don't need hindsight to understand what happened, and why it was foolish to spend so many resources on pitching during the rebuild. The luck they experienced with position prospects doesn't make the process better with the benefit of hindsight.

[Enscheff]

To me, depends on how much power you think he will carry.

The frame to me suggests one should be skeptical.

The new AAA/MLB ball has made raw power less valuable. Anyone that barrels a ball can hit a HR nowadays, so projecting game power has become much harder to do.

I suspect teams are going to start valuing bat skills more heavily, and allow swing tweaks and strength training to increase game power during the development process.