2019 MLB Draft Thread

[Southcack77]

true...but basically the amount it helps a hitter will be inversely correlated to the amount of times a hitter swings and misses. If you swing and miss no amount of juicing of the ball will help. My point is that someone like Bishop has a lot more swing and miss in his game than Carroll. So he gets less help from the juiced ball.

But if Bishop is the best Bishop he can be, he's going to hit the ball hard. And players that hit the ball hard are going to derive a lot of value out of a ball that travels farther. More so that players who don't hit the ball particularly hard.

[nsacpi]

But if Bishop is the best Bishop he can be, he's going to hit the ball hard. And players that hit the ball hard are going to derive a lot of value out of a ball that travels farther. More so that players who don't hit the ball particularly hard.

if Bishop is the best Bishop he can be we should draft him...but he could end up being like a lot of other prospects with an impressive power tool but a fair amount of swing and miss in their game who have not done well as they have moved up the minor league ladder...the concern about Bishop has to do with how many failed prospects with similar profiles that have preceded him

[Southcack77]

Of course, and nobody is saying it wouldn't help everyone. But it's obviously going to help those who make better contact moreso, because they have more chances for the extra power to help. It's just common sense.

Doesn't mean Bishop won't wind up a much better hitter than Carrol, but a guy with gap power if going to be helped a bit more than a guy with light tower power with the new ball.

My guess is that it will probably be a lot more individual in impact than that and follow batted ball profiles more than just contact.

[jpx7]

But if Bishop is the best Bishop he can be, he's going to hit the ball hard. And players that hit the ball hard are going to derive a lot of value out of a ball that travels farther. More so that players who don't hit the ball particularly hard.

Gorman is a good recent example of a player that probably fits your hypothetical; but the big thing with him is it looks like the swing&miss concerns were overrated. I was a fan of Stewart over him because of those concerns (and Stewart’s insane curve rpms); but hindsight makes that preference look silly.

Hopefully the Braves’ evaluators have better foresight, and, if they pick Bishop, are confident he’s going to make enough good contact to leverage his other hitting tools. The downside, though—especially because he plays a less premium position than Gorman (and I’ve read he’ll basically be confined to LF because of his arm)—is that Bishop needs to hit at a high level for the pick to be a hit.

[nsacpi]

Gorman is a good recent example of a player that probably fits your hypothetical; but the big thing with him is it looks like the swing&miss concerns were overrated. I was a fan of Stewart over him because of those concerns (and Stewart’s insane curve rpms); but hindsight makes that preference look silly. Hopefully the Braves’ evaluators have better foresight, and, if the pick Bishop, are confident he’s going to make enough contact.

We'll see about Gorman. His May numbers are well below his April numbers.

mumble mumble hot start...nota bene Riley fans

[jpx7]

We'll see about Gorman. His May numbers are well below his April numbers.

mumble mumble hot start...nota bene Riley fans

Gorman may still bust; but a bird in the hand is worth two in Japan.

[nsacpi]

a bird in the hand is worth two in Japan.

depends

[jpx7]

depends

Hard to argue with rhyme, though.

[Southcack77]

if Bishop is the best Bishop he can be we should draft him...but he could end up being like a lot of other prospects with an impressive power tool but a fair amount of swing and miss in their game who have not done well as they have moved up the minor league ladder...the concern about Bishop has to do with how many failed prospects with similar profiles that have preceded him

And Carrol can be like a lot of athletic smaller guys with high school hit tools that never goes anywhere.

These people who ask scouts which players are good have Bishop rated higher than Carrol for a reason.

Personally, I wouldn't be thrilled and wouldn't hate either one of them at 9.

[nsacpi]

Hard to argue with rhyme, though.

racist rhyme...i'm offended

[nsacpi]

And Carrol can be like a lot of athletic smaller guys with high school hit tools that never goes anywhere.

These people who ask scouts which players are good have Bishop rated higher than Carrol for a reason.

Personally, I wouldn't be thrilled and wouldn't hate either one of them at 9.

I want Lodolo or Manoah at 9. Don't have a dog in the Carroll-Bishop fight. But I do think a juiced ball helps players like Carroll more.

[Southcack77]

Gorman is a good recent example of a player that probably fits your hypothetical; but the big thing with him is it looks like the swing&miss concerns were overrated. I was a fan of Stewart over him because of those concerns (and Stewart’s insane curve rpms); but hindsight makes that preference look silly.

Hopefully the Braves’ evaluators have better foresight, and, if they pick Bishop, are confident he’s going to make enough good contact to leverage his other hitting tools. The downside, though—especially because he plays a less premium position than Gorman (and I’ve read he’ll basically be confined to LF because of his arm)—is that Bishop needs to hit at a high level for the pick to be a hit.

Personally, being burned by Stewart would not stop me from going right back to the high upside pitching well.

[Southcack77]

I want Lodolo or Manoah at 9. Don't have a dog in the Carroll-Bishop fight. But I do think a juiced ball helps players like Carroll more.

Lodolo just looks like your typical white bread lefty who gets a draft bump because he's a lefty. Nothing wrong with him, I guess. Nothing very exciting.

Monoah looks like a fattie.

....

I'd rather have Carrol at 21 than take Bishop at 9 if that helps.

[nsacpi]

Lodolo just looks like your typical white bread lefty who gets a draft bump because he's a lefty. Nothing wrong with him, I guess. Nothing very exciting.

Monoah looks like a fattie.

....

I'd rather have Carrol at 21 than take Bishop at 9 if that helps.

I guess the ideal is a lefty fattie.

If Carroll is there at 21, we should take him.

[jpx7]

Personally, being burned by Stewart would not stop me from going right back to the high upside pitching well.

The thing that made Stewart appealing wasn’t just the high ceiling, but the fact that his off-the-charts spin rates suggested he’d have a high floor, as well.

But I’m not suggesting the Braves avoid high-ceiling pitchers simply because of Stewart (though there are obviously other reasons for reticence); all I was really saying re Stewart/Gorman is that Gorman currently looks like a better prospect / draft-outcome than Stewart—but maybe 9/21/60 makes us forget about either player really quickly.

[Enscheff]

The phrase "a rising tide lifts all ships" comes to mind.

A ball that travels farther should help power hitters. They hit as many warning track flies and line drives that are barely snagged as anyone.

You are confusing raw power with game power and how the juiced ball helps lesser raw power translate into bigger game power than it used to.

That's why I used the term "raw power" in my statement.

[Horsehide Harry]

One thing that I think is important but is mostly overlooked is the age of HS prospects. In many cases, HS guys rated highly are not only late in the year 18 YO but for some, actual 19 YO. There's a trend around the Country where parents hold their kid back a year on purpose to get an extra year of maturity on their peers. And it works most of the time.

Because of that, I've given extra credit to HS guys who are young for their class but still top prospects. There's a good chance that with additional development that time alone brings they will be an even better prospect than they appear at draft. That's one of the reasons that I was so high on Gorman last year. He was a top ten guy who was extremely young for his class. I was also not very high on Blake Rutherford for the inverse. He was old for his class but wasn't a slam dunk star.

This is really just an extension of the thinking that used to concern everyone about international FA - how old are they really?

With HS guys, you know. But it's just not focused on in evaluations that much apparently.

You can extend that to College as well but not as much. If a 23 YO Junior still has questions, then chances are those answers are negative. If a 20 YO Junior still has questions, there may be development time ahead for positive answers.

[bravesfanMatt]

Any managers available at pick 60?

[nsacpi]

One thing that I think is important but is mostly overlooked is the age of HS prospects. In many cases, HS guys rated highly are not only late in the year 18 YO but for some, actual 19 YO. There's a trend around the Country where parents hold their kid back a year on purpose to get an extra year of maturity on their peers. And it works most of the time.

Because of that, I've given extra credit to HS guys who are young for their class but still top prospects. There's a good chance that with additional development that time alone brings they will be an even better prospect than they appear at draft. That's one of the reasons that I was so high on Gorman last year. He was a top ten guy who was extremely young for his class. I was also not very high on Blake Rutherford for the inverse. He was old for his class but wasn't a slam dunk star.

This is really just an extension of the thinking that used to concern everyone about international FA - how old are they really?

With HS guys, you know. But it's just not focused on in evaluations that much apparently.

You can extend that to College as well but not as much. If a 23 YO Junior still has questions, then chances are those answers are negative. If a 20 YO Junior still has questions, there may be development time ahead for positive answers.

Kyren Paris is the youngest guy projected to go within the first couple rounds. The Indians are the team that emphasizes age the most.

A few years ago the Royals took Starling in spite of his being a year older than his draft class. Looks like they will doing the same thing with Witt. God bless Dayton Moore.

[Enscheff]

Kyren Paris is the youngest guy projected to go within the first couple rounds. The Indians are the team that emphasizes age the most.

A few years ago the Royals took Starling in spite of his being a year older than his draft class. Looks like they will doing the same thing with Witt. God bless Dayton Moore.

The Yanks also took the name old kid a few years ago. Rutherford I think?

Being a year older than your high school competition is a pretty big deal.