Page 22 of 92 FirstFirst ... 1220212223243272 ... LastLast
Results 421 to 440 of 1828

Thread: 2019 MLB Draft Thread

  1. #421
    Steve Harvey'd
    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Posts
    18,946
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,856
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    5,329
    Thanked in
    3,353 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    With all picks - $11,532,200. Take away the slot value at 60 and you'd still have $10,374,800. That would only drop them from having the sixth-most to spend to having the eighth-most to spend. Pretty sure it wouldn't have hurt terribly - IF the plan was to go with HS kids with the first two picks.
    1.2 million can buy you good value. That also equates to 10% of you slot money lost.
    Coppy

  2. #422
    It's OVER 5,000! Hudson2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    8,679
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    956
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,455
    Thanked in
    1,123 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by IslandBrave View Post
    His dad made $70MM. Money probably isn’t any issue.
    Yeah but daddy ain’t gonna pay for everything for forever. If he is drafted in the first round and declines then he isn’t very smart imo.

  3. #423
    "What is a clvclv"
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Nebo, NC
    Posts
    9,634
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,354
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,340
    Thanked in
    1,628 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    1.2 million can buy you good value. That also equates to 10% of you slot money lost.
    Again, IF the plan is to spend on kids taken with the first two picks while digging for $100,000 "finds", what difference does that make? Apparently they want WHATEVER player they might get at #60 - and that's fine. Just doesn't seem to make much sense to spend big on the first two picks and pinch pennies with whomever you take right after them when you could've fixed the bullpen to a large extent while your window is wide open.

    Even if you kept the pick (which was obviously the choice), it'd be interesting to see how many guys taken at #60 that signed for slot value have turned out to be such "good value" since the slotting system started.
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

    Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?

  4. #424
    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    47,432
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    2,704
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    11,384
    Thanked in
    7,533 Posts
    A list of pitchers taken in the first round, but not super early:

    2006 Kershaw 7th pick (5th pitcher)
    2006 Lincecum 10 (6)
    2006 Scherzer 11 (7)
    2007 Bumgarner 10 (5)
    2010 Sale 13 (8)
    2011 Jose Fernandez 14 (7)
    2015 Buehler 24 (10)
    2015 Soroka 28 (12)

    Point is that partly due to injuries ordering pitching prospects (even within the confines of the first round) is very tough. Ordering hitters is hard too, but significantly less uncertainty. I would never take a pitcher (well maybe with very rare exceptions) with a top 3 pick. Just because at that point in the draft hitters turn out better on average and it is relatively easy to order the hitting prospects. As you move past the first five picks in the first round the risk-reward to taking a pitcher evens out a bit.

    A useful term from economics is "opportunity cost." If you take a pitcher at #2 in the first round and he blows out his arm the opportunity cost (what you have forsaken to take him) is very high. If you take one at #28 it is not nearly as high. And as we see from my list often the guys who go on to have the best pitching career are the ones who are the taken after quite a few other pitchers are taken.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 05-21-2019 at 01:04 PM.
    "I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."

    "I am your retribution."

  5. #425
    Where's My Cup of Coffee?
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Posts
    1,147
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    196
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    338
    Thanked in
    261 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Even if you kept the pick (which was obviously the choice), it'd be interesting to see how many guys taken at #60 that signed for slot value have turned out to be such "good value" since the slotting system started.
    Players in the current Fangraphs top 132 prospects drafted in rounds 2 or 3 at or after pick 60, drafted from 2014-2017:

    #9 Bo Bichette (drafted 2nd rd, pick 66)
    #21 Dustin May (drafted 3rd rd, pick 101)
    #25 Brent Honeywell rd 2, 72
    #27 Jesus Luzardo rd 3 94th
    35 Sean Murphy rd 3 83rd
    37 Mitch Keller rd 2, 64th
    46 Brandon Lowe rd 3, 87th
    48 Peter Alonso rd 2, 64th
    77 Daulton Varsho rd 2, 68th
    87 Jon Duplantier rd 3, 89th
    91 Brandon Marsh rd 2, 60th
    104 Isan Diaz rd 2, 70th
    111 Nick Solak rd 2, 62
    112 Garrett Hampson rd 3, 81
    117 Alex Verdugo rd 2, 62
    128 Jahmai Jones rd 2, 70

    So a little over 10% of the top 130 prospects come from picks 60-100 during that time frame.

    Then you have guys like Harrison Bader (3rd, 100), AJ Minter (2nd, 75th), Austin Hays (3rd, 91st) who have already made the majors and were drafted during that stretch. I'm sure I've missed a few current MLB players with my quick search, but you can see it's well worth having those 2nd and 3rd round picks if you draft well.

  6. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to auyushu For This Useful Post:

    clvclv (05-22-2019), jpx7 (05-21-2019)

  7. #426
    10 yr, $185 million Extension
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    4,760
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    4
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    981
    Thanked in
    766 Posts
    Still don’t get the bishop hype. Bad arm. One year pop up. Not doing as well vs better competition. College of with Pache and waters around.

    I’m in for multiple hs kids.

  8. #427
    "What is a clvclv"
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Nebo, NC
    Posts
    9,634
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,354
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,340
    Thanked in
    1,628 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by auyushu View Post
    Players in the current Fangraphs top 132 prospects drafted in rounds 2 or 3 at or after pick 60, drafted from 2014-2017:

    #9 Bo Bichette (drafted 2nd rd, pick 66)
    #21 Dustin May (drafted 3rd rd, pick 101)
    #25 Brent Honeywell rd 2, 72
    #27 Jesus Luzardo rd 3 94th
    35 Sean Murphy rd 3 83rd
    37 Mitch Keller rd 2, 64th
    46 Brandon Lowe rd 3, 87th
    48 Peter Alonso rd 2, 64th
    77 Daulton Varsho rd 2, 68th
    87 Jon Duplantier rd 3, 89th
    91 Brandon Marsh rd 2, 60th
    104 Isan Diaz rd 2, 70th
    111 Nick Solak rd 2, 62
    112 Garrett Hampson rd 3, 81
    117 Alex Verdugo rd 2, 62
    128 Jahmai Jones rd 2, 70

    So a little over 10% of the top 130 prospects come from picks 60-100 during that time frame.

    Then you have guys like Harrison Bader (3rd, 100), AJ Minter (2nd, 75th), Austin Hays (3rd, 91st) who have already made the majors and were drafted during that stretch. I'm sure I've missed a few current MLB players with my quick search, but you can see it's well worth having those 2nd and 3rd round picks if you draft well.
    Which certainly shows that there's plenty of talent to be had in that range (as you point out) if you draft well. The part that list leaves off is that many of those guys DIDN'T come cheaply - below the SLOT range we're talking about (if they were to spend big on the first two picks).

    Verdugo - $914,600 (slot - HS)
    Diaz - $750,000 (under slot - HS)
    Keller - $1,000,000 ($113,200 over slot - HS)
    Honeywell - $800,000 ($16,000 over slot - college player)
    Jones - $1,100,000 ($220,500 over slot - HS)
    Lowe - $676,900 (under slot - college player)
    Marsh - $1,073,300 (slot - HS)
    Alonso - $909,200 (under slot - college player)
    Bichette - $1,100,000 ($121,400 over slot - HS)
    Murphy - $753,100 (slot - college player)
    Duplantier - $686,600 (slot - college player)
    Hays - $665,800 (slot - college player)
    Luzardo - $1,400,000 ($764,200 over slot - HS)
    May - $997,500 ($406,700 over slot - HS)
    Varsho - $880,100 (slot - college player)


    While there is talent there, many of those guys you mention weren't exactly "steals" - they were either college players lacking tons of leverage or HS kids that required pretty substantial over slot bonuses to get them to sign.
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

    Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?

  9. #428
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jun 2017
    Posts
    8,025
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,467
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,951
    Thanked in
    1,360 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    Which certainly shows that there's plenty of talent to be had in that range (as you point out) if you draft well. The part that list leaves off is that many of those guys DIDN'T come cheaply - below the SLOT range we're talking about (if they were to spend big on the first two picks).

    Verdugo - $914,600 (slot - HS)
    Diaz - $750,000 (under slot - HS)
    Keller - $1,000,000 ($113,200 over slot - HS)
    Honeywell - $800,000 ($16,000 over slot - college player)
    Jones - $1,100,000 ($220,500 over slot - HS)
    Lowe - $676,900 (under slot - college player)
    Marsh - $1,073,300 (slot - HS)
    Alonso - $909,200 (under slot - college player)
    Bichette - $1,100,000 ($121,400 over slot - HS)
    Murphy - $753,100 (slot - college player)
    Duplantier - $686,600 (slot - college player)
    Hays - $665,800 (slot - college player)
    Luzardo - $1,400,000 ($764,200 over slot - HS)
    May - $997,500 ($406,700 over slot - HS)
    Varsho - $880,100 (slot - college player)


    While there is talent there, many of those guys you mention weren't exactly "steals" - they were either college players lacking tons of leverage or HS kids that required pretty substantial over slot bonuses to get them to sign.
    not really sure what your point is. the 60th pick is probably essential to a strategy like 2016.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

  10. #429
    Where's My Cup of Coffee?
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Posts
    1,147
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    196
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    338
    Thanked in
    261 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    While there is talent there, many of those guys you mention weren't exactly "steals" - they were either college players lacking tons of leverage or HS kids that required pretty substantial over slot bonuses to get them to sign.
    Not sure why it matters if they are steals, we are keeping the 2nd pick because we want the player most likely, not because of some financial flexibility. Teams generally sign seniors in the 4th-10th rounds to have extra money for their 1st and 2nd round picks, they don't really underslot 2nd round picks to save money for 1st round picks.

    And literally every player on my list except for Luzardo was signed for less than our 2nd round slot money, so I'm not sure what your point is as far as the money angle goes, we can easily sign that caliber of player without impacting our signing of our first round picks.

  11. #430
    It's OVER 5,000! Jaw's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2016
    Posts
    7,309
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    8,202
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,344
    Thanked in
    1,625 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    His optimism is infectious and I appreciate thethe for that. He should never wavier.
    It's definitely one of the things that keeps me here.
    Go get him!

    Founding member of the Whiny Little Bitches and Pricks Club

  12. #431
    "What is a clvclv"
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Nebo, NC
    Posts
    9,634
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,354
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,340
    Thanked in
    1,628 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by auyushu View Post
    Not sure why it matters if they are steals, we are keeping the 2nd pick because we want the player most likely, not because of some financial flexibility. Teams generally sign seniors in the 4th-10th rounds to have extra money for their 1st and 2nd round picks, they don't really underslot 2nd round picks to save money for 1st round picks.

    And literally every player on my list except for Luzardo was signed for less than our 2nd round slot money, so I'm not sure what your point is as far as the money angle goes, we can easily sign that caliber of player without impacting our signing of our first round picks.
    The slot values change every year, so comparing the 60th pick's slot value in 2014 vs. what that number will be in 2019 is a bit useless. Slot value for the 60th pick in 2014 was $943,200, in 2019 it's $1,157,400 - $214,200 higher. In 2014, the money we've got for this year would've been slot value for #50.

    Matt mentioned the thought of punting at #60 as a way to spend big on the first two picks. I don't disagree that in this particular draft that would be a bad idea since it looks pretty thin. The point was that if you're going to punt at #60 and draft two over slot HS kids at #9 and #21 and get the best player you can get on the cheap at #60, it might've made as much sense to give up that pick to sign Kimbrel (given the state of our pen), still draft the 2 over slot HS kids to help replenish the lower minors, and just go cheap in Rounds 4-10 just like last year when we didn't have a 3rd Round pick. Maybe you get lucky and find a diamond in the rough RP, 4th/5th OF, or utility guy with one of those college kids who doesn't have any leverage (Higginbotham/Kingham/Justin Dean/etc.).

    That's what scouts are paid for.
    Last edited by clvclv; 05-22-2019 at 09:18 AM.
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

    Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?

  13. #432
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jun 2017
    Posts
    8,025
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,467
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,951
    Thanked in
    1,360 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    The slot values change every year, so comparing the 60th pick's slot value in 2014 vs. what that number will be in 2019 is a bit useless. Slot value for the 60th pick in 2014 was $943,200, in 2019 it's $1,157,400 - $214,200 higher. In 2014, the money we've got for this year would've been slot value for #50.

    Matt mentioned the thought of punting at #60 as a way to spend big on the first two picks. I don't disagree that in this particular draft that would be a bad idea since it looks pretty thin. The point was that if you're going to punt at #60 and draft two over slot HS kids at #9 and #21 and get the best player you can get on the cheap at #60, it might've made as much sense to give up that pick to sign Kimbrel (given the state of our pen)
    i'm not sure why this is so hard to understand. they likely need $1.157M if they want to employ the strategy of going over-slot on one of the first two picks. signing kimbrel eliminates that money.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

  14. The Following User Says Thank You to Super For This Useful Post:

    jpx7 (05-22-2019)

  15. #433
    "What is a clvclv"
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    Nebo, NC
    Posts
    9,634
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    5,354
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,340
    Thanked in
    1,628 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    i'm not sure why this is so hard to understand. they likely need $1.157M if they want to employ the strategy of going over-slot on one of the first two picks. signing kimbrel eliminates that money.
    From yesterday - "With all picks - $11,532,200. Take away the slot value at 60 and you'd still have $10,374,800. That would only drop them from having the sixth-most to spend to having the eighth-most to spend. Pretty sure it wouldn't have hurt terribly - IF the plan was to go with HS kids with the first two picks."

    If you gave up the slot value for #60 and only had $10,374,800, that would still be plenty enough to sign picks 4-10 for $300,000 each ($2,100,000) while leaving you enough to spend $4,000,000 each on #9 and #21. Why is that so hard to understand?
    Has there EVER been a statement and question a certain someone should absolutely never have made and asked publicly more than...

    Kinda pathetic to see yourself as a message board knight in shining armor. How impotent does someone have to be in real life to resort to playing hero on a message board?

  16. #434
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jun 2017
    Posts
    8,025
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,467
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,951
    Thanked in
    1,360 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    From yesterday - "With all picks - $11,532,200. Take away the slot value at 60 and you'd still have $10,374,800. That would only drop them from having the sixth-most to spend to having the eighth-most to spend. Pretty sure it wouldn't have hurt terribly - IF the plan was to go with HS kids with the first two picks."

    If you gave up the slot value for #60 and only had $10,374,800, that would still be plenty enough to sign picks 4-10 for $300,000 each ($2,100,000) while leaving you enough to spend $4,000,000 each on #9 and #21. Why is that so hard to understand?
    yes, and it's silly to think that extra money won't make a difference. it very very obviously does. remember a few years ago when, like, $300k made a big difference to the Braves' plan and they yanked a contract offer because of it? what makes you think over a million dollars won't?
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

  17. The Following User Says Thank You to Super For This Useful Post:

    jpx7 (05-22-2019)

  18. #435
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jun 2017
    Posts
    8,025
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,467
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,951
    Thanked in
    1,360 Posts
    like you're objectively wrong that $1.1M doesn't make a difference regarding all of this. it's a very tedious balancing act, as we've seen already. you have to get it just right, as we've seen already. throwing away that amount 100% changes the strategy.
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

  19. #436
    10 yr, $185 million Extension
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Posts
    4,626
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    199
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,328
    Thanked in
    853 Posts
    At this point maybe just keep the pool money and sign Kimbrel in 2 weeks if you must. I don’t think 5 Kimbrel appearances is worth the chance to go way overslot and get a premium prospect.

  20. The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to mqt For This Useful Post:

    clvclv (05-23-2019), jpx7 (05-22-2019)

  21. #437
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jun 2017
    Posts
    8,025
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,467
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    1,951
    Thanked in
    1,360 Posts
    Squire
    12:05 What's the best strategy for a team like the Phillies who pick mid-first round and have no 2nd round pick? Is it possible to cut a below slot deal in the mid-first round? Is it worth it when you trying to push money out all the way to the 91st pick?
    Eric A Longenhagen
    12:06 Not if you're targetting high-profile players. If you want to spread saving around to a lot of 250-600k high schoolers (which there's an unusually large amount of this year), then okay.

    "but the 2nd round money won't really matter"
    "Well, you’ll learn soon enough that this was a massive red wave landslide." - thethe on the 2020 election that trump lost bigly

    “I can’t fix my life, but I can fix the world.” - sturg

  22. #438
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    that clv gonna derp

  23. #439
    10 yr, $185 million Extension
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    4,557
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    261
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    2,520
    Thanked in
    1,477 Posts
    Baseball America guy on Twitter says he doesn’t think Bishop falls to 9, and his current Braves pick would be one of Rutledge, Langeliers or Carroll.

  24. The Following User Says Thank You to CJ9 For This Useful Post:

    jpx7 (05-22-2019)

  25. #440
    Hessmania Forever
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    13,994
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    4,887
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    7,678
    Thanked in
    4,941 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by CJ9 View Post
    Baseball America guy on Twitter says he doesn’t think Bishop falls to 9, and his current Braves pick would be one of Rutledge, Langeliers or Carroll.
    Of those three, Carroll would be my choice.

  26. The Following User Says Thank You to 50PoundHead For This Useful Post:

    jpx7 (05-22-2019)

Similar Threads

  1. JUNE 2019 PRE-DRAFT TOP 30 PROSPECTS (NEW NO. 1!)
    By rico43 in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 80
    Last Post: 06-19-2019, 11:11 AM
  2. CrimsonCowboy’s 2019 NFL Mock Draft
    By CrimsonCowboy in forum Fulton County Fire & BBQ
    Replies: 5
    Last Post: 02-10-2019, 11:06 PM
  3. 2019 MLB Draft Thread:
    By bravesfanforlife88 in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 19
    Last Post: 02-05-2019, 08:25 PM
  4. 2019 MLB Draft Order
    By CrimsonCowboy in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 25
    Last Post: 10-02-2018, 04:30 PM
  5. Official Draft Day, Post-Draft Thread
    By rico43 in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 745
    Last Post: 07-17-2017, 09:52 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •