2019 MLB Draft Thread

[auyushu]

[I]Must be Law that thinks he has a "questionable hit tool". Definitely pass - he was certainly right about Riley.

No, it's the fact that he hit freaking .250ish in college as a soph that makes his hit tool extremely questionable. Fangraphs, who you are quoting, has him as the 26th pick in the draft right now. Maybe his hit tool carries or maybe it doesn't, but you don't make top 10 picks on hopes and dreams. Langeliers looks like a guy who you take a flyer on in late 1st or the early second round, not a first rounder. His scouting reports read very similar to Lucas Herbert to me, who we drafted in 2015 in the second 2nd round and couldn't hit a lick.

1st round catcher picks almost never pan out unless they are in the top 4-5 picks of the draft. In the past 15 years there have been exactly 3 catchers picked after the 5th pick that have been marginally successful, Yasmani Grandal in 2010 (12th), Devin Mesoraco in 2007 (15th), and Jason Castro in 2008 (10th). Mesoraco has only had one successful season and Castro has been more of a platoon starter than a true starter during his career (though a superb defensive player). It would be a huge reach of a pick based on current draft projections, and it would be a poor pick based on draft history as well.

[Southcack77]

Not sure that catchers drafted between 5 and 32 is an especially relevant division of talent.

[50PoundHead]

No, it's the fact that he hit freaking .250ish in college as a soph that makes his hit tool extremely questionable. Fangraphs, who you are quoting, has him as the 26th pick in the draft right now. Maybe his hit tool carries or maybe it doesn't, but you don't make top 10 picks on hopes and dreams. Langeliers looks like a guy who you take a flyer on in late 1st or the early second round, not a first rounder. His scouting reports read very similar to Lucas Herbert to me, who we drafted in 2015 in the second 2nd round and couldn't hit a lick.

1st round catcher picks almost never pan out unless they are in the top 4-5 picks of the draft. In the past 15 years there have been exactly 3 catchers picked after the 5th pick that have been marginally successful, Yasmani Grandal in 2010 (12th), Devin Mesoraco in 2007 (15th), and Jason Castro in 2008 (10th). Mesoraco has only had one successful season and Castro has been more of a platoon starter than a true starter during his career (though a superb defensive player). It would be a huge reach of a pick based on current draft projections, and it would be a poor pick based on draft history as well.

It's ten years ago, but don't forget when the Pirates drafted Tony Sanchez 4th overall in 2009 as a departure from success in picks 1 - 5. Part of the thinking there was monetary, but he's another early-round college catcher who didn't pan out.

[Super]

It's more I'm done with that debate and see no reason to extend it beyond the multiple pages it already is.

I also have zero respect for ad hominems. They're the resort of the wrong or those too incompetent at argumentation to form coherent positions.

na your posts in this thread were pretty dumb

[auyushu]

Not sure that catchers drafted between 5 and 32 is an especially relevant division of talent.

Players drafted in the top 5 generally have a more solid hit tool base, which is the only reason I excluded them. Even if you include the top 5 picks I'd only be adding three successful catchers during the last 15 years (Mike Zunino who was 3rd in 2012, Matt Weiters who was 5th in 2007, and Buster Posey, who was 5th in 2008). Comparing Buster Posey (who hit .460 with an OPS of 1.440 during his junior year, and had a .398 avg for his college career) or Matt Weiters (averaged .359 avg and 1.071 OPS over his 3 years of college) to Shea Langeliers (.291 avg and .884 OPS for his career so far) isn't really relevant in any way, as he has nowhere close to those skills, just like he isn't anywhere close to Adley Rutschman as a prospect.

Basically drafting catchers in the first round has just been an extremely poor choice unless they are just complete studs. And when you are looking at the numbers of college batters when they transition to the pros, guys who hit in the .300ish range for their college careers typically struggle to make good contact in the pros. It's the guys that hit .330+ in college that tend to show good contact in the pros. Heck, Zunino had a .327 avg and 1.000ish OPS during his college career and has struggled badly with his contact skills.

Based on his college numbers so far Langeliers looks more like a guy that might turn into a .250ish avg, .750ish OPS guy with good defense if things go well, and that's the kind of guy you draft in the early 2nd round to me, not reach on in the top 10.

[Enscheff]

Not sure that catchers drafted between 5 and 32 is an especially relevant division of talent.

Umm, there is a huge gap in talent between the top few guys in a draft and the guys who go in the end of the 1st round.

If the Braves draft Lango with the 9th pick it is a mistake. They should be getting a 50 or a super cheap 45+ that lets them get another 45+ at 21.

[Russ2dollas]

What's your definition of years away. Contreras is trending to be ready by 2021, maybe end of 20 if all goes well.

Sure we could use some better catching depth but i wouldnt spend a top 10 pick on one.

Prep catchers move slowly. I think he’s 2021

I’m not saying he’s a depth piece only.

[zbhargrove]

Prep catchers move slowly. I think he’s 2021

I’m not saying he’s a depth piece only.

That’s usually because of defense... most reports say he’s defensively ready or close now.

[striker42]

na your posts in this thread were pretty dumb

Thank you for that well thought out and cogent argument. We have all been greatly enlightened by your post. You are truly a giant among us.

[Jaw]

It's interesting to see the different philosophies people take with the draft. To me, with no international talent inbound, it seems like this is a time we have to take potential over anything else. A mid 800s college OPS doesn't scream potential to me.

I'm hoping we stick with big bats and big arms. Good glove catchers who can't hit can be found easily enough. Heck, there were even good hitting catchers that were readily available this past offseason.

[CJ9]

Keith Law's first mock is out for subscribers: http://www.espn.com/insider/mlb/stor...-mock-draft-10

Basically, we take Hunter Bishop at 9 and Brennan Malone at 21. That's pretty much ideal scenario for me right now.

He does add that we've been "all over" Bishop this spring and that there is some concerns among teams that he's striking out more and homering less as Pac 12 play goes on (he did strike out in 5 of his 12 PAs against UCLA this weekend). Law also has us linked to Corbin Carroll, who he has going 8 to Texas.

[50PoundHead]

Keith Law's first mock is out for subscribers: http://www.espn.com/insider/mlb/stor...-mock-draft-10

Basically, we take Hunter Bishop at 9 and Brennan Malone at 21. That's pretty much ideal scenario for me right now.

He does add that we've been "all over" Bishop this spring and that there is some concerns among teams that he's striking out more and homering less as Pac 12 play goes on (he did strike out in 5 of his 12 PAs against UCLA this weekend). Law also has us linked to Corbin Carroll, who he has going 8 to Texas.

One of the more interesting players in the draft (at least to me). Undersized, but has the tools/skills to merit interest.

[CJ9]

Bishop did hit a grand slam against UCLA this weekend, and it's an easy reminder of why he's so highly regarded: https://twitter.com/ASU_Baseball/sta...51656864124928

108 mph off the bat, 35 degree launch angle, projected distance of 420 feet. Looked like it cleared their huge batter's eye in center.

[clvclv]

I'm not totally old school, but Langeliers barely scraped .250 with an aluminum bat his sophomore season and while batting average can be misleading, it's a red flag to me at this level. His BB and K rates are solid, so maybe his sophomore season was fraught with bad luck. I'll let the scouts decide, but at a two-dimensional level, he appears to be a pretty significant reach at #9.

I'm not arguing that he isn't a bit of a reach that high - far from it. Taking him there is as much about him not being available at #21 as anything. Could he be there? Sure he "could" be. The point is that if you take him, you get a solid option at the hardest position to find (that also is still showing up in some Top 15s overall) that you can sign below slot while using that money to try to float someone you like to #21.

Maybe it'd work out, maybe it won't - but given his defensive chops behind the plate he wouldn't be the worst guy to have, especially if you're able to get good talent at #21 (and maybe even #60 given our scouts' track record). You don't want to ever draft based on "need", but given how scarce catching is in today's game, talent there ought to at least be considered one of your tiebreakers IMO.

[50PoundHead]

I'm not arguing that he isn't a bit of a reach that high - far from it. Taking him there is as much about him not being available at #21 as anything. Could he be there? Sure he "could" be. The point is that if you take him, you get a solid option at the hardest position to find (that also is still showing up in some Top 15s overall) that you can sign below slot while using that money to try to float someone you like to #21.

Maybe it'd work out, maybe it won't - but given his defensive chops behind the plate he wouldn't be the worst guy to have, especially if you're able to get good talent at #21 (and maybe even #60 given our scouts' track record). You don't want to ever draft based on "need", but given how scarce catching is in today's game, talent there ought to at least be considered one of your tiebreakers IMO.

Langeliers sounds like Scott Servais to me.

[50PoundHead]

Bishop did hit a grand slam against UCLA this weekend, and it's an easy reminder of why he's so highly regarded: https://twitter.com/ASU_Baseball/sta...51656864124928

108 mph off the bat, 35 degree launch angle, projected distance of 420 feet. Looked like it cleared their huge batter's eye in center.

Thanks for posting that. Pretty swing. He really tattooed that ball.

[Russ2dollas]

Keith Law's first mock is out for subscribers: http://www.espn.com/insider/mlb/stor...-mock-draft-10

Basically, we take Hunter Bishop at 9 and Brennan Malone at 21. That's pretty much ideal scenario for me right now.

He does add that we've been "all over" Bishop this spring and that there is some concerns among teams that he's striking out more and homering less as Pac 12 play goes on (he did strike out in 5 of his 12 PAs against UCLA this weekend). Law also has us linked to Corbin Carroll, who he has going 8 to Texas.

Bishop has more hit questions than the Baylor catcher right? Didn't he struggle his first two years? Isn't he having a much harder time in conference play than non-conference?


The Baylor kid had one bad year and broke his hamate. That injury saps power for 1-2 years.

I don't have a lot of confidence in this group drafting college bats given Jenista.

[Super]

Bishop has more hit questions than the Baylor catcher right? Didn't he struggle his first two years? Isn't he having a much harder time in conference play than non-conference?


The Baylor kid had one bad year and broke his hamate. That injury saps power for 1-2 years.

I don't have a lot of confidence in this group drafting college bats given Jenista.

making a determination based on one player who hasn't even come close to flopping yet...brilliant

[clvclv]

Langeliers sounds like Scott Servais to me.

Not sure Servais ever had anything approaching Langeliers' defensive ability, but I'd agree that having him turn into an "everyday" Catcher would require serious improvement with the bat.

That said, having someone that has that kind of defensive profile makes Contreras' defense slightly less important and he could be your offensive-minded half of the future "platoon" without hurting things much.

[Russ2dollas]

making a determination based on one player who hasn't even come close to flopping yet...brilliant

It's not a determination, it's an observation and a feeling. I'm not saying never draft a college bat. The Baylor guy is a college bat/catcher. Very clever personal shot though! Good for You!

I am just surprised on how everyone seems so positive on the ASU kid when it looks like he has big red flags.


I am not saying who we should draft. I don't even know their names. Just curious why people do not seem to be worried about a college player who is toolsy but has some production issues.