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Thread: Fangraphs Top 29 Braves Prospects

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    no. but if they had ranked allard, say, a 50 and said he's really a 45 but we decided to bump him up based on a gut feeling? yeah, i'd **** on that.

    Whats the difference between a 45 FV and a 50 FV pitcher? Its just absurd to be so adamant that thinking a player might outperform their talent level a little bit is so controversial around here. I was never on the Camargo bandwagon but there were many people here with gut feelings he would develop into a quality MLB player and none of these people made their living through prospecting for 20+ years. At times it seems like many people here think prospecting is an exact science. I am not going to go out on any limb to predict success by Allard but I will be rooting for him as hard as I have anyone since almost everyone was pissed that we drafted Soroka because he didnt rank highly enough on the publicly available draft rankings done by the "experts".



    edit - Apparently Pache went from a 60 FV to a 55 FV. How can that be. I thought there was no arguing with FV. Are the people with "gut feelings" that he was a 55 FV instead of 60 last year idiots?
    Last edited by cajunrevenge; 12-12-2018 at 01:07 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by cajunrevenge View Post
    Whats the difference between a 45 FV and a 50 FV pitcher? Its just absurd to be so adamant that thinking a player might outperform their talent level a little bit is so controversial around here. I was never on the Camargo bandwagon but there were many people here with gut feelings he would develop into a quality MLB player and none of these people made their living through prospecting for 20+ years. At times it seems like many people here think prospecting is an exact science. I am not going to go out on any limb to predict success by Allard but I will be rooting for him as hard as I have anyone since almost everyone was pissed that we drafted Soroka because he didnt rank highly enough on the publicly available draft rankings done by the "experts".
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    Quote Originally Posted by cajunrevenge View Post
    Whats the difference between a 45 FV and a 50 FV pitcher? Its just absurd to be so adamant that thinking a player might outperform their talent level a little bit is so controversial around here. I was never on the Camargo bandwagon but there were many people here with gut feelings he would develop into a quality MLB player and none of these people made their living through prospecting for 20+ years. At times it seems like many people here think prospecting is an exact science. I am not going to go out on any limb to predict success by Allard but I will be rooting for him as hard as I have anyone since almost everyone was pissed that we drafted Soroka because he didnt rank highly enough on the publicly available draft rankings done by the "experts".
    the difference between the two isn't really the point.
    this does not suggest prospect ranking is an exact science at all.
    i'd prefer "authorities" on these things use actual data, not "gut feelings." gut feelings are useless, i don't care who you are or how long you've been writing about that topic or how many "gut feelings" you can cite that have worked out.
    "You show your bias against me with your consistently negative reaction to my brazen lies."

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Seems they have cooled their jets a little on Pache, as was expected once some of the Braves kool aid wore off Kiley, dropping him from a 60 to a 55. Notice the comp went from "guaranteed Pillar" (3 win CF), to "Hamilton/Pillar area" in this recent update? The same Billy Hamilton who was just cut loose by the Reds and signed by KC for $4.6M. So yeah, let's not get too carried away with Pache. Good prospect, but not some game changer like Albies or Acuna...or even Swanson. I don't have any real issue calling him the #1 prospect in the system though.

    It's very interesting to see this article reference spin rates quite often. Where are they getting this data? From Kiley's Braves sources who have access to the Statcast data?

    All of the "he'd work well as a reliever" comments about the pitchers is a bit alarming though, and may be a clue as to why we see so many rumors about the Braves going after SPs.

    The air coming out of the Allard balloon was completely predictable. So much for the following prediction made back on 2/5/2018: "He (Allard) will be a top 20 prospect by the end of next season". And no, he didn't mean top 20 Braves prospect.
    With regards to Pache, at least this is plausible. And a good response Enscheff. I've been blessed to watch the guy for three years and he has grown leaps and bounds. I'm a big believer in him I think his bat has much more in it (at least I think it does). I believe the Billy Hamilton comp is not that that good though. Hamilton had one elite tool. I think Pache has 2/5 elite tools in his arm and fielding. His hit tool is borderline avg and his power below. His speed is average. Interesting perspective nonetheless.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cajunrevenge View Post
    edit - Apparently Pache went from a 60 FV to a 55 FV. How can that be. I thought there was no arguing with FV. Are the people with "gut feelings" that he was a 55 FV instead of 60 last year idiots?
    All Braves prospects have a little kool aid bias from Kiley.

    It's starting to wear off.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deester11 View Post
    With regards to Pache, at least this is plausible. And a good response Enscheff. I've been blessed to watch the guy for three years and he has grown leaps and bounds. I'm a big believer in him I think his bat has much more in it (at least I think it does). I believe the Billy Hamilton comp is not that that good though. Hamilton had one elite tool. I think Pache has 2/5 elite tools in his arm and fielding. His hit tool is borderline avg and his power below. His speed is average. Interesting perspective nonetheless.
    I have never doubted that Pache is a good prospect. I took issue with the "his floor is Kevin Pillar" nonsense.

    Athletes with tools turn into excellent players all the time. They also bust all the time. Pache isn't special in any sense compared to countless other good prospects before him. He's a good prospect...a young 55.

    I never agreed with the FV 60 rating, and now FG is agreeing with me. Can he turn into a 60 with improvements? Absolutely, but he wasn't a 60 a year ago. That was an absurd rating for him at the time. Can he turn into the next McCutchen? Maybe, but he could also turn into the next defensive 4th OFer. Will he settle in as a defensive CF that produces 3 wins like Inciarte or Pillar? Definitely, but it was moronic to call that his floor a year ago.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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    Quote Originally Posted by Deester11 View Post
    With regards to Pache, at least this is plausible. And a good response Enscheff. I've been blessed to watch the guy for three years and he has grown leaps and bounds. I'm a big believer in him I think his bat has much more in it (at least I think it does). I believe the Billy Hamilton comp is not that that good though. Hamilton had one elite tool. I think Pache has 2/5 elite tools in his arm and fielding. His hit tool is borderline avg and his power below. His speed is average. Interesting perspective nonetheless.
    I would love to know what the front office really thinks about Pache. I don't think they can trade him if they're confident he'll be an average or above hitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jaw View Post
    I would love to know what the front office really thinks about Pache. I don't think they can trade him if they're confident he'll be an average or above hitter.
    the way the game is evolving an elite defensive centerfielder might be more valuable than an elite shortstop

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    The problem with that is that we do not usually know the full context for that data when it comes to prospects in the minor leagues. For example, there are lot of prospects who are said to have questionable defense or are in need of improvement because they have a lot of errors in the minor leagues but when you actually dig deeper you find out that the team had a DH playing 1B who can make routine plays but rarely helps a defender out with a good scoop or stretch like Freeman does. For a pitcher there is often speculation about whether they can or will add velocity. Thats largely a gut feeling based on body type. Another example would be the playing surface not being quality leading to more errors or hits allowed.


    You did confirm for me what I suspected and thats even if Allard exceeds expectations and becomes a mid rotation starter you would still not credit the person who was right. The idea that someone who made their living in the prospecting game for 20+ years has to ignore all his experience and just list data points is crazy. The nuances and human factor in the game can sway the results drastically in either direction. I cant imagine being so closed minded that you think would think someone is wrong even if they are right, just because you dont like how they reached their conclusion.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I have never doubted that Pache is a good prospect. I took issue with the "his floor is Kevin Pillar" nonsense.

    Athletes with tools turn into excellent players all the time. They also bust all the time. Pache isn't special in any sense compared to countless other good prospects before him. He's a good prospect...a young 55.

    I never agreed with the FV 60 rating, and now FG is agreeing with me. Can he turn into a 60 with improvements? Absolutely, but he wasn't a 60 a year ago. That was an absurd rating for him at the time. Can he turn into the next McCutchen? Maybe, but he could also turn into the next defensive 4th OFer. Will he settle in as a defensive CF that produces 3 wins like Inciarte or Pillar? Definitely, but it was moronic to call that his floor a year ago.
    he's got a good chance to be another Inciarte and we should all be happy if that happens

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    very few prospects turn into an Acuna or a McCutchen...so yeah Kiley needed to dial back his enthusiasm for Pache

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    How valuable WAR wise is the best defensive CF in mlb with a .700ish ops?

    It would be extremely valuable while he is making the league minimum. I dont know that OPS is the right stat to go by there because if that .700 OPS includes a .350 or better OBP that would drastically increase his value over being a .300 OBP and .400 slugging% hitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    he's got a good chance to be another Inciarte and we should all be happy if that happens
    That would be an amazing outcome. He'd be ready to step in right as Inciarte is transitioning to a 4th OFer. The timing may work out absolutely perfectly.

    A little different than the prediction made on 2/11/2018: (Because of Pache) "We will be shopping ender in the next year".
    Last edited by Enscheff; 12-12-2018 at 02:02 PM.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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    Quote Originally Posted by cajunrevenge View Post
    edit - Apparently Pache went from a 60 FV to a 55 FV. How can that be. I thought there was no arguing with FV. Are the people with "gut feelings" that he was a 55 FV instead of 60 last year idiots?
    what is this incoherence?
    "You show your bias against me with your consistently negative reaction to my brazen lies."

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    How valuable WAR wise is the best defensive CF in mlb with a .700ish ops?
    3-4 WAR player

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    Quote Originally Posted by Individual-1 View Post
    Peak Ender is pretty close to Simba Defensively in CF. Has stolen so many outs for us, especially in the unconventional heads up play ways.
    Ender is just an ordinarily good defensive outfielder. And I don't mean that as an insult, he's really good. But there are arguments for at least 3-4 other CFs that they could be better. Simba is on another level defensively. You could make an argument that he has already established himself as the best defensive player of all time, even better than the Brooks Robinsons, Ozzie Smiths, or Mark Belangers of the world.

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    How valuable WAR wise is the best defensive CF in mlb with a .700ish ops?
    Last year, Byron Buxton put up 5.2 bWAR with a .728 OPS due to his defense and baserunning and whatnot. It was only worth 3.5 fWAR though because B-R tends to have larger extremes defensively. They punish bad defenders more harshly and reward good defenders more.

    So I'd imagine Pache with a .700 OPS would be like a 4 win player on B-R and a 2-3 win player on Fangraphs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    Last year, Byron Buxton put up 5.2 bWAR with a .728 OPS due to his defense and baserunning and whatnot. It was only worth 3.5 fWAR though because B-R tends to have larger extremes defensively. They punish bad defenders more harshly and reward good defenders more.

    So I'd imagine Pache with a .700 OPS would be like a 4 win player on B-R and a 2-3 win player on Fangraphs.
    This is correct.

    FG recently revamped their defensive metrics to use objective statcast data rather than real people viewing results, and it greatly evened out the large outlier seasons...good and bad.

    I think this exercise revealed a lot of built in bias by the observers when they watched someone like Simmons make play after play and kept adding more and more defensive value as they got more and more biased. Or when they saw Kemp miss play after play and just kept piling on.

    As such, I wouldn't even bother with BRef's defensive data anymore other than pitch framing, which is why I never bother to reference bWAR at all anymore.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    This is correct.

    FG recently revamped their defensive metrics to use objective statcast data rather than real people viewing results, and it greatly evened out the large outlier seasons...good and bad.

    I think this exercise revealed a lot of built in bias by the observers when they watched someone like Simmons make play after play and kept adding more and more defensive value as they got more and more biased. Or when they saw Kemp miss play after play and just kept piling on.

    As such, I wouldn't even bother with BRef's defensive data anymore other than pitch framing, which is why I never bother to reference bWAR at all anymore.
    I hate that google prioritizes B-R on my search engine. If I'm ever quickly trying to give a snapshot of a player its just always easier to type in that player's name and click the top link rather than typing "(Insert Player) Fangraphs"... I've gotten better about it recently though lol

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    Ender is just an ordinarily good defensive outfielder. And I don't mean that as an insult, he's really good. But there are arguments for at least 3-4 other CFs that they could be better. Simba is on another level defensively. You could make an argument that he has already established himself as the best defensive player of all time, even better than the Brooks Robinsons, Ozzie Smiths, or Mark Belangers of the world.
    i agree about Simmons but Ender is better than you're giving him credit defensively.

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