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    Fangraphs Top 29 Braves Prospects

    Here's your long read for the day: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-...tlanta-braves/

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    1. Cristian Pache
    2. Austin Riley
    3. Mike Soroka
    4. Ian Anderson
    5. Kyle Wright
    6. Drew Waters
    7. William Contreras
    8. Touki Toussaint
    9. Luiz Gohara
    10. Bryse Wilson

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    It's good to see all the names again.

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    Initial thoughts...



    - Pache is the Andrelton Simmons of CF?

    - can someone explain to me what a hockey defensemans mentality has to do with throwing strikes or whatever they meant about Soroka. Seems ridiculous to me but I dont know much about hockey.


    - Are people going to **** on this guy for saying theres a sliver of hope Allard becomes a reliable back end starter?
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    Quote Originally Posted by cajunrevenge View Post
    Initial thoughts...



    - Pache is the Andrelton Simmons of CF?

    - can someone explain to me what a hockey defensemans mentality has to do with throwing strikes or whatever they meant about Soroka. Seems ridiculous to me but I dont know much about hockey.


    - Are people going to **** on this guy for saying theres a sliver of hope Allard becomes a reliable back end starter?

    1) Scouting reports seem to be leaning in that direction.

    2) no idea

    3) No. Anything is possible

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    Also that list is super deep even if it lacks that 60+ guy like it did a year ago with Acuna.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cajunrevenge View Post

    - Are people going to **** on this guy for saying theres a sliver of hope Allard becomes a reliable back end starter?
    no. but if they had ranked allard, say, a 50 and said he's really a 45 but we decided to bump him up based on a gut feeling? yeah, i'd **** on that.
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    The summary at the end of the article sums up my concerns. Our lower levels are bare, and we're going to feel the pain from that in a few years.

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    The depth of prospects in the system is freaking insane. Add that to the two top-25 prospects we'll add in the draft. Something's got to give.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CJ9 View Post
    The summary at the end of the article sums up my concerns. Our lower levels are bare, and we're going to feel the pain from that in a few years.
    Sometimes even in an apparently bare system there are some not-so-highly rated prospects that emerge. I'll mention Camargo and Sobotka as two guys who maybe had a few fans around here but from whom not much was expected a few years ago.

    There is one guy taken in this year's draft who isn't even on FG's Top 29 list who I think has a chance to be the next Camargo.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    no. but if they had ranked allard, say, a 50 and said he's really a 45 but we decided to bump him up based on a gut feeling? yeah, i'd **** on that.

    Whats the difference between a 45 FV and a 50 FV pitcher? Its just absurd to be so adamant that thinking a player might outperform their talent level a little bit is so controversial around here. I was never on the Camargo bandwagon but there were many people here with gut feelings he would develop into a quality MLB player and none of these people made their living through prospecting for 20+ years. At times it seems like many people here think prospecting is an exact science. I am not going to go out on any limb to predict success by Allard but I will be rooting for him as hard as I have anyone since almost everyone was pissed that we drafted Soroka because he didnt rank highly enough on the publicly available draft rankings done by the "experts".



    edit - Apparently Pache went from a 60 FV to a 55 FV. How can that be. I thought there was no arguing with FV. Are the people with "gut feelings" that he was a 55 FV instead of 60 last year idiots?
    Last edited by cajunrevenge; 12-12-2018 at 01:07 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by cajunrevenge View Post
    Whats the difference between a 45 FV and a 50 FV pitcher? Its just absurd to be so adamant that thinking a player might outperform their talent level a little bit is so controversial around here. I was never on the Camargo bandwagon but there were many people here with gut feelings he would develop into a quality MLB player and none of these people made their living through prospecting for 20+ years. At times it seems like many people here think prospecting is an exact science. I am not going to go out on any limb to predict success by Allard but I will be rooting for him as hard as I have anyone since almost everyone was pissed that we drafted Soroka because he didnt rank highly enough on the publicly available draft rankings done by the "experts".
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    Quote Originally Posted by cajunrevenge View Post
    Whats the difference between a 45 FV and a 50 FV pitcher? Its just absurd to be so adamant that thinking a player might outperform their talent level a little bit is so controversial around here. I was never on the Camargo bandwagon but there were many people here with gut feelings he would develop into a quality MLB player and none of these people made their living through prospecting for 20+ years. At times it seems like many people here think prospecting is an exact science. I am not going to go out on any limb to predict success by Allard but I will be rooting for him as hard as I have anyone since almost everyone was pissed that we drafted Soroka because he didnt rank highly enough on the publicly available draft rankings done by the "experts".
    the difference between the two isn't really the point.
    this does not suggest prospect ranking is an exact science at all.
    i'd prefer "authorities" on these things use actual data, not "gut feelings." gut feelings are useless, i don't care who you are or how long you've been writing about that topic or how many "gut feelings" you can cite that have worked out.
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    Quote Originally Posted by cajunrevenge View Post
    edit - Apparently Pache went from a 60 FV to a 55 FV. How can that be. I thought there was no arguing with FV. Are the people with "gut feelings" that he was a 55 FV instead of 60 last year idiots?
    All Braves prospects have a little kool aid bias from Kiley.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cajunrevenge View Post
    edit - Apparently Pache went from a 60 FV to a 55 FV. How can that be. I thought there was no arguing with FV. Are the people with "gut feelings" that he was a 55 FV instead of 60 last year idiots?
    what is this incoherence?
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    Quote Originally Posted by cajunrevenge View Post

    - can someone explain to me what a hockey defensemans mentality has to do with throwing strikes or whatever they meant about Soroka. Seems ridiculous to me but I dont know much about hockey.

    He was a goalie not a defenseman growing up. Makes me wonder about the author of this article.
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    How valuable WAR wise is the best defensive CF in mlb with a .700ish ops?

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    How valuable WAR wise is the best defensive CF in mlb with a .700ish ops?

    It would be extremely valuable while he is making the league minimum. I dont know that OPS is the right stat to go by there because if that .700 OPS includes a .350 or better OBP that would drastically increase his value over being a .300 OBP and .400 slugging% hitter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    How valuable WAR wise is the best defensive CF in mlb with a .700ish ops?
    3-4 WAR player

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    How valuable WAR wise is the best defensive CF in mlb with a .700ish ops?
    Last year, Byron Buxton put up 5.2 bWAR with a .728 OPS due to his defense and baserunning and whatnot. It was only worth 3.5 fWAR though because B-R tends to have larger extremes defensively. They punish bad defenders more harshly and reward good defenders more.

    So I'd imagine Pache with a .700 OPS would be like a 4 win player on B-R and a 2-3 win player on Fangraphs.

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