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Thread: Where are the 2019 Braves on the Expected Win Curve

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Where are the 2019 Braves on the Expected Win Curve

    The starting point is the 48 wins that define a team of replacement level players. Let's add from there

    Bench and pen: 5 wins (53 running total)

    Catcher: 2 wins (55)

    First: 5 wins (60)

    Second: 4 wins (64)

    Short: 2 wins (66)

    Third: 4 wins (70)

    Left: 5 wins (75)

    Center: 3 wins (78)

    Right: 2 wins (80)

    Folty: 4 wins (84)

    Gausman: 3 wins (87)

    Newcomb: 2 wins (89)

    Teheran: 1 win (90)

    Fifth starter: 1 win (91)
    Last edited by nsacpi; 12-24-2018 at 10:58 AM.
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    Shift Leader thethe's Avatar
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    We aren't really going to pitch Julio are we? Not with Soroka/Fried/Touki/Wright all available?

    I don't know what its going to take to finally give Fried a job. He could easily be a 2 win guy with upside for much more (4).
    Warm feelings guy!

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    Some tehteh hot takes on pitchers...

    Fried ermergs as a potential TOR canddiate 11/3/2017

    He (Allard) will be top 20 by the ed of next season 2/5/2018

    sentiment will change quickly this season....Newcomb will be providing his prime performance 2/7/2018

    Soroka will be replacing Folty in July 4/23/2018
    Last edited by Enscheff; 12-25-2018 at 02:39 PM.

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    Anytime Now Frankie...
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Fried ermergs as a potential TOR canddiate 11/3/2017

    He (Allard) will be top 20 by the ed of next season 2/5/2018

    sentiment will change quickly this season....Newcomb will be providing his prime performance 2/7/2018

    Soroka will be replacing Folty in July 4/23/2018
    Welcome back thethe. You should remember that this type of optimism is not well received by some here!

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    Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is. jpx7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    We aren't really going to pitch Julio are we? Not with Soroka/Fried/Touki/Wright all available?

    I don't know what its going to take to finally give Fried a job. He could easily be a 2 win guy with upside for much more (4).
    Think Oakland could be in play as a Julion destination.
    "For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."

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    Quote Originally Posted by jpx7 View Post
    Think Oakland could be in play as a Julion destination.
    Yeah - I mean he is useful for a team that is searching for a fifth starter so hopefully what you say comes to pass.

    I'm just excited to see Folty/Gausman/Newk/Touki/Fried

    Why should the Braves be hesitant about that with Soroka/Gohara/Wright/Weigel/Anderson real close in the AAA rotation?

    Teheran honestly is hurting the team by not letting one of our more talented guys get a shot now.
    Warm feelings guy!

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    Quote Originally Posted by mfree80 View Post
    Welcome back thethe. You should remember that this type of optimism is not well received by some here!
    People choose to perceive life in many ways. I don't begrudge someone for holding these types of counter views.

    Thanks mfree!
    Warm feelings guy!

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    Connoisseur of Minors zitothebrave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    We aren't really going to pitch Julio are we? Not with Soroka/Fried/Touki/Wright all available?

    I don't know what its going to take to finally give Fried a job. He could easily be a 2 win guy with upside for much more (4).
    If Fried can stay healthy and keep his K rate up (since it seems his BB Rate won't drop enough) He should be a solid starter.But staying healthy is a big if
    AJ does all the other things just as well if not better than Mac - zbhargrove

    I don't think Nolan Ryan should be a poster child for mechanics - SAV

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by zitothebrave View Post
    If Fried can stay healthy and keep his K rate up (since it seems his BB Rate won't drop enough) He should be a solid starter.But staying healthy is a big if
    I still want to see what Fried can do as a major league starter. Give him half a season (15 starts) to show what he's got. If it doesn't work out the pen beckons.

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    Thethe was wrong before. Ive been wring too.

    The point he made about Julio is valid, he shouldnt pitch for us. We have 5 options who can provide the same value for a minimum salary with more upside. Julio is our third highest paid player.

    With teams like the pads and Oakland going for it there should be a match out there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mfree80 View Post
    Welcome back thethe. You should remember that this type of optimism is not well received by some here!
    I just think its funny the one thing he found to be pessimistic about was Folty in his breakout, all star year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    I just think its funny the one thing he found to be pessimistic about was Folty in his breakout, all star year.
    Maybe he will explain to us once again how Newk has better control in the zone than Folty despite his higher BB/9....and how Newk is the better pitcher.

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    Fried and Gohora will likely both be bullpen peices until Fried can prove to stay healthy (blisters), and Gohora ( health and stamina). Wilson (who I love), Wright and Weigel should carve people up once they get used to the role.

    Obviously all these guys probably wont be here, but any of those guys would be great bullpen peices AND any could also start.

    Soroka and Touki will be given the most rotation looks.

    I really would like to see more starts from the other guys and I would move Newk before some of the others...I doubt it happens.

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    Secretary of Statistics AerchAngel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Maybe he will explain to us once again how Newk has better control in the zone than Folty despite his higher BB/9....and how Newk is the better pitcher.
    LMAO

    I like Thethe but he jump the shark on this one.

    Folty is our ACE but he is not quite there yet but still young, maybe he figure it out.

    We have legitimately 10 starters on this team that can start on any team in the Majors (even as a 5), but you need to give the young one's a chance. I think we should do it.

    These guys CAN be really really good, but they need chances just like Smoltz, Avery, Glavine, Millwood, even Nied and McMurtry was not bad pitchers, just a bad time, as we know the Mad Dog was just epic. I might have missed a couple in the early 90's like Neagle but he was with another team before he came here.

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    Its sad...there just isnt enough playing time for all of them. They all pretty much deserve it.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    The starting point is the 48 wins that define a team of replacement level players. Let's add from there

    Bench and pen: 5 wins (53 running total)

    Catcher: 2 wins (55)

    First: 5 wins (60)

    Second: 4 wins (64)

    Short: 2 wins (66)

    Third: 4 wins (70)

    Left: 5 wins (75)

    Center: 3 wins (78)

    Right: 2 wins (80)

    Folty: 4 wins (84)

    Gausman: 3 wins (87)

    Newcomb: 2 wins (89)

    Teheran: 1 win (90)

    Fifth starter: 1 win (91)
    Even if we adjust the projection in right down a win, this is still a solid contending team. I know my 90 win projection is a bit higher than the consensus, but I think consensus is not giving enough weight to what younger players like Acuna, Albies, and Folty did last year. This is a very solid contending team and AA will have the chips to make some moves either later this off-season or mid-season.

    The projection systems have Acuna, Albies and Folty regressing relative to 2018. I think as a group they will give us more. Pozi Braves assemble!!
    Last edited by nsacpi; 01-22-2019 at 06:24 PM.
    It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning. Senator Bob Corker

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Even if we adjust the projection in right down a win, this is still a solid contending team. I know my 90 win projection is a bit higher than the consensus, but I think consensus is not giving enough weight to what younger players like Acuna, Albies, and Folty did last year. This is a very solid contending team and AA will have the chips to make some moves either later this off-season or mid-season.

    The projection systems have Acuna, Albies and Folty regressing relative to 2018. I think as a group they will give us more. Pozi Braves assemble!!
    Which is why we need another difference maker for insurance. Markakis ain't it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thethe View Post
    We aren't really going to pitch Julio are we? Not with Soroka/Fried/Touki/Wright all available?

    I don't know what its going to take to finally give Fried a job. He could easily be a 2 win guy with upside for much more (4).
    I actually agree with the first part of this. I don't know how hard we've been shopping Julio, but I don't see any reason for him to be a Brave in 2019. The money he is owed could be enormous in our pursuit of more substantial upgrades and we have more than enough pitching to replace his production.

    There has to be some team in baseball that'd be willing to take Julio on.

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    Expects Yuge Games nsacpi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    I actually agree with the first part of this. I don't know how hard we've been shopping Julio, but I don't see any reason for him to be a Brave in 2019. The money he is owed could be enormous in our pursuit of more substantial upgrades and we have more than enough pitching to replace his production.

    There has to be some team in baseball that'd be willing to take Julio on.
    We are going to take it easy on Gohara and Soroka at the start of the season. Ease them in for a month or two in AAA to limit innings and stressful late inning effort. I'm good with Julion being around to accommodate that sort of scenario. By late May/early June we will make adjustments to the rotation based on who is throwing best.
    It's a shame the White House has become an adult day care center. Someone obviously missed their shift this morning. Senator Bob Corker

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Even if we adjust the projection in right down a win, this is still a solid contending team. I know my 90 win projection is a bit higher than the consensus, but I think consensus is not giving enough weight to what younger players like Acuna, Albies, and Folty did last year. This is a very solid contending team and AA will have the chips to make some moves either later this off-season or mid-season.

    The projection systems have Acuna, Albies and Folty regressing relative to 2018. I think as a group they will give us more. Pozi Braves assemble!!
    FG has the following projections (guessing for Markakis/Duvall in LF), keep in mind the totals for each position include bench contributions at those positions:

    C (Flowers/Mac) - 3.5 wins (add ~1 win for framing)
    1B (Freeman/Duvall) - 4.4
    2B (Albies/Camargo) - 3.6
    SS (Swanson/Camargo) - 2.1
    3B (JD/Camargo) - 4.5
    LF (Markakis/Duvall) - 1.4
    CF (Inciarte/Acuna) - 2.7
    RF (Acuna/Duvall) - 3.0
    DH (Camargo/Riley/Flowers) - 0.5

    SP1 (Folty) - 2.7
    SP2 (Newk) - 1.7
    SP3 (Gausman) - 2.1
    SP4 (Teheran) - 0.6
    SP5 (Touki/Soroka/Fried/Others) - 2.1

    BP (Viz/Minter/O'Day/Others) - 2.4

    Total - 37.3 + 48 = 85.3 wins.

    While I'll easily take the over on Acuna's projection, I don't disagree with much of that.

    I see the Braves as an ~86 win team as currently constructed, with upside for more if the young pitchers like Soroka, Touki and Wright make improvements and push guys like Teheran and Newk out of the rotation.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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