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Thread: Braves vs the Division: By Position

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    Braves vs the Division: By Position

    Leaving the Fish out of this, as they will not be in competition this season (or the next several for that matter). This of course is as of today, and could changed depending of what moves are made the rest of the offseason. Harper, Machado, Kimbrel, JTR, Pollock, etc are all players that when added to any one of the 4 teams, could shift the advantage...

    I updated the post to reflect Fangraphs projections for 2019 in terms of WAR at the request of Sturg33. Did not do the bullpen WAR if someone wants to try that.

    Thoughts?

    First Base:
    Braves: Freeman 4.2 WAR
    gNats: Zimmerman 1.2 WAR
    Phillies: Hoskins 3.6 WAR
    Mets: Cano 3.4 WAR

    Advantage: Braves - Freeman has always been a steady player who has power as well as good contact skills. While Hoskins is a very good player, I give the edge to Freeman for what he does defensively as well as offensively.

    Second Base:
    Braves: Albies 3.5 WAR
    gNats: Kendrick 0.3 WAR
    Phillies: Hernandez 2.2 WAR
    Mets: Lowrie 2.0 WAR

    Advantage: Braves - Ozzie Albies had a killer start to the season, however, did taper off in the 2nd half.

    Short Stop:
    Braves: Swanson 1.8 WAR
    gNats: Turner 4.6 WAR
    Phillies: Segura 2.6 WAR
    Mets: Rosario 2.1 WAR

    Advantage: gNats - going off Fangraphs projected WAR for 2019.

    Third Base:
    Braves: Donaldson 4.2 WAR
    gNats: Rendon 5.4 WAR
    Phillies: Franco 2.2 WAR
    Mets: Frazier 0.7 WAR

    Advantage - gNats - Rendon has proven to provide steady production in his career, and is entering a contract year. Donaldson has the potential to have the better season, however, Rendon gets the nod due to being less of a health concern. This could change if the Phillies sign Machado.

    Catcher:
    Braves: McCann/Flowers 0.9/1.5 WAR
    gNats: Suzuki/ Gomes 1.3/1.2 WAR
    Phillies: Realmuto/Knapp 4.0/0.3 WAR
    Mets: Ramos/d'Arnaud 2.2/1.0 WAR

    Advantage - Phillies - the addition of JTR by far gives them the best catcher in the division, possibly even in baseball

    Outfield:
    Braves: Acuna (3.3), Inciarte (2.4), Duval (0.6) = 6.3 WAR
    gNats: Eaton (2.5), Robles (2.2), Soto (4.3) = 9 WAR
    Phillies: McCutchen (2.9), Williams (0.2), Herrera (2.0) = 5.1 WAR
    Mets: Nimmo (2.3), Conforto (3.2), Lagares (0.7) = 6.2 WAR

    Advantage - gNats - Robles and Soto are going to be special talents we have to contend with for a long time. Of course I don't expect us to end up with Duvall in the OF, however, this is based off of what players teams have right now. Could change if Harper lands in the division.

    Rotation:
    Braves: Folty, Newk, Gausman, Teheran, Soroka/Gohara/Touki 7.6 WAR
    gNats: Scherzer, Stras, Corbin, Sanchez, Fedde 15.2 WAR
    Phillies: Nola, Arrieta, Velasquez, Pivetta, Eflin 11.4 WAR
    Mets: deGrom , Syndergaard, Wheeler, Matz, Vargas 14.8 WAR

    Advantage - gNats - They have a very potent rotation no doubt about it. The Mets come in second in this department due to the health concerns.

    Bullpen: (not listing all of the bullpen arms)
    Braves:
    gNats:
    Phillies:
    Mets:

    Advantage: Mets - They have brought back Familia puts added Diaz as a dominant closer at the back end of the game. The gNats, have also improved their pen with some nice additions.

    Totals:
    Braves: 1B, 2B
    gNats: 3B, SS, OF, Rotation
    Phillies: C
    Mets: Bullpen
    Last edited by bravesfanforlife88; 02-08-2019 at 12:34 PM.
    Mark Bowman's reports carry a lot of gravity

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    Sorry, but Mets clearly have the best rotation. Top 3 are better and 4 and 5 are a wash at this time.

    SS goes to Turner. Coming off a 4+ WAR season.


    Your Nats OF advantage is based solely on an unproven rookie. Robles could fall flat on his face. Honestly, a Camargo/Duvall platoon could easily outproduce him unless he is a legit 3 WAR player immediately. Braves should have the advantage here, even before considering we're likely going to add an upgrade to LF.
    Last edited by Carp; 01-12-2019 at 05:39 AM.

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    Wouldn't it make more sense to rank them in these 5 categories: lineup, defense, starting pitching, relief pitching, bench?

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    What about grit and BiLE. Do we still win those?


    But good post. Worth revisiting when season starts. I also think we take 3rd base.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Sorry, but Mets clearly have the best rotation. Top 3 are better and 4 and 5 are a wash at this time.

    SS goes to Turner. Coming off a 4+ WAR season.


    Your Nats OF advantage is based solely on an unproven rookie. Robles could fall flat on his face. Honestly, a Camargo/Duvall platoon could easily outproduce him unless he is a legit 3 WAR player immediately. Braves should have the advantage here, even before considering we're likely going to add an upgrade to LF.
    The point of this is for the discussion...and you make good points that yes, things can be different than what I posted above. Keep in mind, there are still a few moves to make, we are not going to end up with Duvall/Camargo in RF. But I based the rotation pick, based on how much trouble the Mets rotation has had staying healthy.

    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    What about grit and BiLE. Do we still win those?


    But good post. Worth revisiting when season starts. I also think we take 3rd base.
    Again, the health was the concern for me. If Donaldson is healthy, he should win it pretty easily.
    Mark Bowman's reports carry a lot of gravity

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    Rendon is very good and underrated. Even if healthy I'd be surprised if JD was better.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Rendon is very good and underrated. Even if healthy I'd be surprised if JD was better.
    Rendon is coming off a 4.2 WAR season and going into contract year
    Mark Bowman's reports carry a lot of gravity

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Rendon is very good and underrated. Even if healthy I'd be surprised if JD was better.
    Idk... Donaldson last 6 years fWAR: 7.2, 5.7, 8.7, 7.6, 5.1, 1.3 (52 games)

    Just 33. I expect a monster season

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    Rendon is coming off a 4.2 WAR season and going into contract year
    JD is in a contract year and knows he has to prove it to get paid. I like his chances.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanforlife88 View Post
    Rendon is coming off a 4.2 WAR season and going into contract year
    JD put up 1.3 in 52 games last year ~ 4.1 over 162 games

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    JD is in a contract year and knows he has to prove it to get paid. I like his chances.
    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    JD put up 1.3 in 52 games last year ~ 4.1 over 162 games
    Again....I hope he has a great year...but i'm betting on Rendons' consistency vs Donaldsons ability to stay healthy.
    Mark Bowman's reports carry a lot of gravity

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    Feels like we should just project each position with projected WAR and see where it lands

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    Quote Originally Posted by sturg33 View Post
    Feels like we should just project each position with projected WAR and see where it lands
    Updated the post with the WAR projections from Fangraphs
    Last edited by bravesfanforlife88; 01-12-2019 at 10:51 AM.
    Mark Bowman's reports carry a lot of gravity

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    JD is in a contract year and knows he has to prove it to get paid. I like his chances.
    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    Idk... Donaldson last 6 years fWAR: 7.2, 5.7, 8.7, 7.6, 5.1, 1.3 (52 games)

    Just 33. I expect a monster season
    Fangraphs has Rendon at 6.2 last year. I suspect he didn't fall off a cliff defensively like Baseball ref and DRS think he did.

    And several of those years for JD was when he was still elite defensively. I don't think he's that guy anymore. I think a healthy JD will give you 4-5 WAR.

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    Why is Fangraphs projecting Acuña for only 3.3 WAR?

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    Quote Originally Posted by seanyates View Post
    Why is Fangraphs projecting Acuña for only 3.3 WAR?
    projecting him to hit .279 avg, 29 HR, 58/161 BB/K, .347 OBP, .490 SLG, .837 OPS

    Seems like they are rating him negatively on defense
    Mark Bowman's reports carry a lot of gravity

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    Quote Originally Posted by seanyates View Post
    Why is Fangraphs projecting Acuña for only 3.3 WAR?
    Because the only projection system they have on there is Steamer. FWIW Zips has him as a 4+ WAR guy.

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    Not sure it’s likely tendon gets to free agency. The dollars being thrown around on his extension are completely reasonable. Don’t know why they would not get it done.

    Arenado will be too pricy for Atlanta.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Rendon is very good and underrated. Even if healthy I'd be surprised if JD was better.
    I could see Donaldson leading in fWAR/162, but Rendon having more raw fWAR. If they both are healthy and both play their best it'll be pretty close.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Southcack77 View Post
    Not sure it’s likely tendon gets to free agency. The dollars being thrown around on his extension are completely reasonable. Don’t know why they would not get it done.

    Arenado will be too pricy for Atlanta.
    Yeah I can't see them losing both Rendon and Harper. Will be hard to keep both, but if Bryce ends up elsewhere then I'm sure they'll hang onto Rendon

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