2020 Field

[zitothebrave]

You can cherry pick which states to focus your analysis on. But they ALL send delegates to the convention.

Good luck trying to "fix" Bernie.

Bernie is easy. He just needs Obama in his corner to hammer home that he's got the interest of the Black Vote. If I'm Bernie's campaign the picture of him getting arrested for anti-segregation protesting shows up everywhere in Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania. Michigan, etc.

If you follow the "fall in line' theory it makes Bernie even better, because Biden is basically winning on people like yourself who are never Trumpers but not liberal and balck vote because he was Obama's VP. If the Black vote falls in line to Bernie and he generates millenials and hispanics we have a LANDSLIDE!

[zitothebrave]

Biden still polling nationally better than any candidate, including Trump. I realize Sanders is your boy, but you are way over exaggerating here.

Biden is polling better nationally than Trump right now. But it won't hold Trump will get his 45% to show up to the polls. I don't think Biden gets his 49%. Bernie's crew is the only one showing up in force.

This election is a microcosm of the national election. Never Bernie voters vs. Bernie voters, the difference is that Never Bernie voters are already never Trumpers. So you're just risking the Bernie voters not showing up because Joe Biden is a **** candidate. I honestly wish Buttigieg was still around because he's a much better candidate than Creepy Uncle Joe.

[nsacpi]

Bernie is easy. He just needs Obama in his corner to hammer home that he's got the interest of the Black Vote. If I'm Bernie's campaign the picture of him getting arrested for anti-segregation protesting shows up everywhere in Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania. Michigan, etc.

If you follow the "fall in line' theory it makes Bernie even better, because Biden is basically winning on people like yourself who are never Trumpers but not liberal and balck vote because he was Obama's VP. If the Black vote falls in line to Bernie and he generates millenials and hispanics we have a LANDSLIDE!

I think Biden will lose some Bernie voters in the general election and vice versa. To the extent there is more leakage in one scenario than another, the analysis I've seen is that Bernie will lose more Biden voters. He might be able to make it up with a surge in yut voting. But it would have to be a surge like we've never seen before. Possible but not likely.

[nsacpi]

I don't think Biden gets his 49%.

Here is where I think you are dead wrong. People in this country know what is at stake. There will be no enthusiasm deficit on the Democratic side. No matter who the candidate.

[zitothebrave]

If the dems elect Biden get ready to see lots of these images getting spammed







Get ready for Pizzagate 2.0.

It's sad that dems don't see the writing on the wall that playing it safe doesn't work vs. Trump. Biden is a safe pick. Reality is we're in a war of culture. And it's time to pick a side. Bernie is the polar opposite of Trump. He would force Never Trumpers to hold true to themselves while he rallies the youth.

[zitothebrave]

Here is where I think you are dead wrong. People in this country know what is at stake. There will be no enthusiasm deficit on the Democratic side. No matter who the candidate.

You keep saying that, but it means nothing. If people knew what was at stake they wouldn't vote for the candidate that Trump wants to face. Trump wants Biden. He's gonna make Biden look like a fool. He's gonna attack his son's business workings in the Ukraine he's going to attack his constant gaffes. Trump has little area to pick on Bernie without risking an opening blow on himself.

You are in a bubble where you don't realize what's at risk. Bernie isn't the ideal candidate for the dems, but he's the best that they have. They really need another Obama but the closest to that was probably Buttigieg but era relative he's much more conservative than Obama was so softening him up was difficult.

[nsacpi]

It is a very interesting line of attack. It was a big deal a while back. I actually took the trouble to do a little study of two lines of attack that cropped up against Biden months ago.

One was Creepy Joe. The other had to do with Ukraine (this was before the whole whistleblower thing came out).

My goal was to identify the allegiance of the accounts putting out these lines of attacks. The Ukraine stuff overwhelmingly was right wing and foreign.

The Creepy Joe stuff was more Bernie supporters, though there was some overlap with right wing accounts.

It was interesting watching those two lines of attack unfold.

I guess both continue to get peddled.

[zitothebrave]

I think Biden will lose some Bernie voters in the general election and vice versa. To the extent there is more leakage in one scenario than another, the analysis I've seen is that Bernie will lose more Biden voters. He might be able to make it up with a surge in yut voting. But it would have to be a surge like we've never seen before. Possible but not likely.

Biden voters don't matter though. Biden voters already lost 2016. That's the problem is people assume that Trump voters will move to Biden and I don't think that's likely to happen. I hope I'm wrong but reading things all around the internet Biden is much more caustic than Hillary. And Trump shot of the economy crashing ala 2008 is gonna campaign on how strong his economy is even though it has nothing to do with a president one way or the other.

That's the issue here is you're basically advocating trying the same thing as 2016, but with a man instead of a woman and hoping that wins.

[nsacpi]

You are in a bubble where you don't realize what's at risk.

ad hominen

[nsacpi]

If people knew what was at stake they wouldn't vote for the candidate that Trump wants to face. Trump wants Biden.

There are a lot of indications chosen one wants to face Bernie. They are not subtle or hard to find.

[zitothebrave]

It is a very interesting line of attack. It was a big deal a while back. I actually took the trouble to do a little study of two lines of attack that cropped up against Biden months ago.

One was Creepy Joe. The other had to do with Ukraine (this was before the whole whistleblower thing came out).

My goal was to identify the allegiance of the accounts putting out these lines of attacks. The Ukraine stuff overwhelmingly was right wing and foreign.

The Creepy Joe stuff was more Bernie supporters, though there was some overlap with right wing accounts.

It was interesting watching those two lines of attack unfold.

I guess both continue to get peddled.

Creepy Biden has existed for a long time. It's been around since he was VP. It's the issue with an old man who doesn't realize that the world around him is changing. What he considers showing appropriate affection is not up to modern standards. And he hasn't stopped. He still likes to creepily whisper things in peoples ear while touching them with his forehead.

Biden will have a lot of fronts he's being attacked on. He can defend them for the most part. But is he willing to get into the trenches and get dirty with Trump because that's what a Biden/Trump campaign is. It's dirty and disgusting. It involves dragging kids into the battle it involves hurling insults at each other. That's what it results in.

That's where I like Bernie because he can stay above the fray. Worst thing they can do is call him a socialist and give him a free platfrom to remind everyone that we have a ton of socialist programs already that a lot of Trump supporters are on. Seriously I personally know no Trump supporters who aren't on some government welfare plan of some sort.

[zitothebrave]

There are a lot of indications chosen one wants to face Bernie. They are not subtle or hard to find.

That's because he's courting himself to Bernie voters. Hoping that Bernie voters will abandon the DNC for him or just not show up. The last choice being the optimal choice. He's going to sow discord because it's better for him to say that the DNC rigged another election against Bernie to get Bernie voters to not vote democrat. You're 2 moves behind in 3d Chess right now my dude.

[Carp]

Biden is polling better nationally than Trump right now. But it won't hold Trump will get his 45% to show up to the polls. I don't think Biden gets his 49%. Bernie's crew is the only one showing up in force.

This election is a microcosm of the national election. Never Bernie voters vs. Bernie voters, the difference is that Never Bernie voters are already never Trumpers. So you're just risking the Bernie voters not showing up because Joe Biden is a **** candidate. I honestly wish Buttigieg was still around because he's a much better candidate than Creepy Uncle Joe.

Biden has been polling nationally better than Trump since he announced.

And it isn't true that Bernie's crew are the only ones showing up. Virginia had a huge boost in turnout and they voted overwhelmingly for Biden. Sanders won the states he was projected too, which happen to also be states that primarily vote Dem anyways (aside from Utah). Biden won NC, VA, and Minnesota all convincingly. Those are 3 battleground states.

What you are saying about Warren and Sanders can also be applied to Bloomberg and Biden. As soon as Bloomberg drops and endorses Biden, his votes will shift to Biden.

[Carp]

I think Biden will lose some Bernie voters in the general election and vice versa. To the extent there is more leakage in one scenario than another, the analysis I've seen is that Bernie will lose more Biden voters. He might be able to make it up with a surge in yut voting. But it would have to be a surge like we've never seen before. Possible but not likely.

Yup. Bernie will lose many independents and conservative Dems and will have to depend on the youth vote to win. Right leaning Never Trumpers will never, ever consider Bernie, but they might vote Biden.

[Carp]

You keep saying that, but it means nothing. If people knew what was at stake they wouldn't vote for the candidate that Trump wants to face. Trump wants Biden. He's gonna make Biden look like a fool. He's gonna attack his son's business workings in the Ukraine he's going to attack his constant gaffes. Trump has little area to pick on Bernie without risking an opening blow on himself.

You are in a bubble where you don't realize what's at risk. Bernie isn't the ideal candidate for the dems, but he's the best that they have. They really need another Obama but the closest to that was probably Buttigieg but era relative he's much more conservative than Obama was so softening him up was difficult.

Trump wants Biden... that's why he tried to start an investigation into Biden and bashes him every chance he gets, while he rarely mentions Bernie Sanders and has actually praised Bernie's campaign at times....

[cajunrevenge]

Yup. Bernie will lose many independents and conservative Dems and will have to depend on the youth vote to win. Right leaning Never Trumpers will never, ever consider Bernie, but they might vote Biden.

[nsacpi]

Bloomberg is out. Warren is re-assessing.

Looks like Michigan is gonna be mano a mano.

I think Biden wins Michigan.

[Runnin]

8 months is a long time for a 77 yr old elite gaffer to hold a coalition together. The whole election system is so screwed up.

[Runnin]

Trump wants Biden... that's why he tried to start an investigation into Biden and bashes him every chance he gets, while he rarely mentions Bernie Sanders and has actually praised Bernie's campaign at times....

LOL.

[nsacpi]

8 months is a long time for a 77 yr old elite gaffer to hold a coalition together. The whole election system is so screwed up.

Biden is kind of gaffe proof. He can make as many as he wants.

As I said earlier, I have never been impressed by him. And he is way past his prime. But he is the imperfect vessel for putting something awful behind us. There will be no enthusiasm deficit on the Democratic side, as there was in 2016.