Bloomberg spent the most money on Super Tuesday IIRC. THough Biden may have spent more money.Originally Posted by Carp
If you look at my breakdown, only states that the dems have a shot at winning where BLoomberg and Biden beat Warrena dn Sanders were Virginia and North Carolina, though the latter still is likely an L for the dems. And honestly I don't think Virginia goes back red if Bernie is the nominee, I think they prefer Biden, but I don't think they'll go Trump.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
AOC doesn't have the money to be Prez, so that won't happen. Also, I kind of doubt she makes another term as a US Rep. Approval ratings for US Reps aren't super reliable, but they haven't been kind to her.
She won't need money. Bernie didn't have the money to make a run in 2016. If she gets a grass roots campaign started early she will get a fantastic head start. Combination of her age and charisma will set her up well for the national stage. She coudl easily take the liberal mantle from Bernie adn be more successful because she's attractive and charismatic.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
Maybe the yut will come out for her the way they haven't for Bernie.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
There is also redistricting. NY will be losing a district after 2020.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
BedellBrave (03-05-2020), Carp (03-05-2020)
Biden has a very good shot at any swing state with a high African American population. I think this the key to him getting the Dem nomination. AA's simply didn't like HRC as evidenced by a 11 percent drop in AA turn out from 2012. Polling so far shows they like Biden substantially better than HRC.
This a big deal because Michigan and Pennsylvania have relatively high AA populations and Trump barely won both of those states in 2016. The Michigan primary should be a good barometer of how well Biden might do in the election. If the black community turnout and the overall Dem turnout is higher in the Michigan primary, the Dems will have an edge against Trump in 2 of the biggest swing states (VA and PA).
The African American vote is important, but I think the biggest swing since 2016 will come from college-educated white women. They have had an enormous effect in shifting politics in Virginia. The 2019 off-year mid-terms also showed some massive swings among those kinds of voters in suburban areas. Some of the suburbs of Philadelphia for example saw Democrats winning local office in areas they have never won.
It is kind of interesting, but Bernie is strong with less well educated white men. It is kind of a left-wing version of the much larger right-wing group that is chosen one's base. The two groups have a few things in common, including bad manners. Maybe they get together someday. Pitchforks to the Bastille! I can teach them a few French songs that were popular in 1789.
Last edited by nsacpi; 03-05-2020 at 09:38 AM.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Carp (03-05-2020)
Again, AOC isn't even really liked in her own district. Bernie definitely didn't have have deep pockets, but he was worth a cool 1.5 million or more in 2016. It's fair to say AOC likely has a net worth less than 100k currently. You have to be rich to have a realistic chance of running for Prez.
Warren out
She is'nt liked in her own district if you listen to what Fox News and other big media says. She has in incredibly strong national following already, if she takes a little bit of time to cultivate it she will do just fine nationally. 1.5M is nothing when it comes to politics. Bloomberg spend 600M in a few months, but above that lets look at 2016 where Bernie was "worth" 1.5M his campaign spent 220M. Don't be obtuse about how much money he had in 2016 and the effect on the campaign.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
Funny that you point that out and you ignore something bigger.
Bernie has huge support with Hispanic supporters.
Biden's entire campaign is run on his "electibility" but that whole thing is based on what, the fact that he was a long term Senator in Delaware? That he got his ass drummed in2008 with his electability? That he didn't even dare to enter the race against Hillary in 2016 because of his electability?
Most poeple who voted for Biden according to exit polls were Black or never Trumpers. Someone couldn't be a never Trumper and not vote for Bernie so that segment of the base is gone.
I'd like to see your numbers on Bernie being strong with "less well educated" white men.
"At the same time, Sanders was formidable in his core groups. He won voters younger than 30 by a smashing 58-13% over Biden and those age 30 to 44 by 44-20%. “Very” liberal voters backed him by 47-18%, independents by 38-24%. On one of his signature issues, he won voters who support a government-run, single-payer health care system – 56% of all those who voted – by 43-22% over Biden."
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/late...ry?id=69381829
Bernie wins youth, independents, people who want a single payer health care (which is polling over 50%) BIden is doing well with Republicans who don't like Trump and conservative Democrats. Which personally I'd rather them **** or get off the pot.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
This is a poll from last March. I can't imagine much has changed.
https://poll.qu.edu/national/release...ReleaseID=2611
From the article:
U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York gets a negative 23 - 36 percent favorability rating, with 38 percent who haven't heard enough about her to form an opinion. Rep. Ocasio-Cortez has been good for the Democratic Party, 33 percent of voters say, as 36 percent say she's been bad for the party.
"All is definitely not A-OK for AOC. Most voters either don't like the firebrand freshman Congresswoman or don't know who she is," Malloy said.
Last edited by Carp; 03-05-2020 at 12:39 PM.
Ok...Bernie wins Michigan then...Warren dropped out...no more excuses
Data actually suggests that independents were among Bloomberg's strongest followings, particularly independents over the age of 35 (you know, ones that are actually likely to vote, unlike young independents). With Bloomberg backing Biden now, those will likely flow Biden's way and not Sanders.
Last edited by Carp; 03-05-2020 at 12:35 PM.
Nice speculation. So yhou see a stat that says independents favor Bernie, then go on and say you assume independents who favored Bloomberg will favor Biden. That's not how statistics work.
Edit To clarify
38% for Bernie and 24% for Biden equals 62% Which leaves 38% left which how does that indicate that independents were that strong for BLoomberg? Sure he took part of that but we don't have that number right now.
Last edited by zitothebrave; 03-05-2020 at 01:20 PM.
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
Bernie shoudl win. He may fail because Biden carrying the black vote. We'll have to see. Also Warren didn't endorse anyone.
It's a one on one and we'll see how things shake out. Bernie will hopefully now dominate the liberal, young and independent vote to shut up people about his inability to win independents while Biden runs on being Barack Obama's VP.
There's one way Biden's campaign coudl be crushed, that's if Obama came out and endorsed Bernie. If that happened it's over. Bernie wins. There's no one similar thing that could end Bernie's campaign short of him dying or going to jail
Stockholm, more densely populated than NYC - sturg
sounds like an excuse to me
either he has the appeal to win or he doesn't...same thing for any other candidate
#blackvotesmatter
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Carp (03-05-2020)
Ideologues don't put much stock in actual governance. They also don't tend to get the notion of "likability."
^^This.
Serious question, why would any Democrat former candidate endorse the guy who is not a Democrat over Biden? Maybe Warren, but she's actually smart, so I doubt it.
acesfull86 (03-05-2020), Carp (03-05-2020)
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