2020 Field

[nsacpi]

Ideologues don't put much stock in actual governance. They also don't tend to get the notion of "likability."

Likability is overrated. But being to master the give-and-take of governing is important. And Bernie has never shown interest or ability in that area. His whole senate career has consisted of posing rather than getting anything done.

[The Chosen One]

Biden is sad last month he would consider Michelle Obama as Veep.

That would be wild. And guarantee high black vote turnout.

[nsacpi]

Some interesting senate polls:

In AZ Kelly leads McSally by 5
Same pollster shows Biden leading chosen one by 1 in AZ and chosen one leading Bernie by 1.
So Kelly outperforming the top of the ticket.

In Maine Gideon leads Collins by 4.
Same pollster shows both Biden and Bernie beating chosen one by 10 in Maine.
So here the top of the ticket is outperforming Gideon.

There are going to be local nuances in these races. Sometimes coattails, sometimes reverse coattails.

[Carp]

Nice speculation. So yhou see a stat that says independents favor Bernie, then go on and say you assume independents who favored Bloomberg will favor Biden. That's not how statistics work.

Edit To clarify

38% for Bernie and 24% for Biden equals 62% Which leaves 38% left which how does that indicate that independents were that strong for BLoomberg? Sure he took part of that but we don't have that number right now.

You've literally made the same assumption regarding Bernie and Warren.

Regarding the independent vote, we don't have those numbers yet, but polls have shown independents 35 and older favor Bloomberg (or a candidate like Bloomberg if you believe this article from a month ago).

I recall seeing a poll at the start of Feb that showed a good bit of register Independents polled supported Bloomberg. I'll have to look for it.

[Carp]

Biden is sad last month he would consider Michelle Obama as Veep.

That would be wild. And guarantee high black vote turnout.

Would be unheard of. There something to that as far as the black vote goes.

I think Kamala Harris would serve a similar purpose, and she actually has the political chops to back it up.

[zitothebrave]

Biden is sad last month he would consider Michelle Obama as Veep.

That would be wild. And guarantee high black vote turnout.

LMAO Michelle would never run as Biden's VP. If she wanted to run for President she would smoke Biden why would she want to be Biden's VP? Nothing worse than attaching yourself to a losing ticket.

He more likely brings on Stacey Abrams.

[The Chosen One]

Would be unheard of. There something to that as far as the black vote goes.

I think Kamala Harris would serve a similar purpose, and she actually has the political chops to back it up.

not to mention, Michelle may even energize the white female vote and female vote in general probably more than Hillary did or Warren or Klobuchar could have.

[Carp]

Stacey Abrams would be a terrible pick.

[The Chosen One]

Stacey Abrams would be a terrible pick.

Yes.

Zeets has been all over the place in this thread.

Abrams is unproven nationally. She should try to go for one of the senate seats, since Georgian has two up for grabs this November.

[zitothebrave]

Stacey Abrams would be a terrible pick.

More likely to convince Biden to select Abrams than to convince Michelle Obama to set foot anywhere near this campaign. If she ever gets involved in politics it will be to run for Senate or President. Not to be Biden's token VP.

[Carp]

Stacey Abrams would be akin to McCain choosing Palin.


Ok, it's hard to be that bad, but seriously Stacey Abrams is not a good candidate. If they are focused on the Black vote and the woman vote, Kamala Harris makes the most sense.

[zitothebrave]

I don't think she's a good candidate. I think Biden has a few choices, I think optimally he should go young and liberal with his running mate, but he could go safer and pick someone like Buttigieg who isn't liberal but does appeal more to younger voters than Biden does.

But if I was making my bets, I think he goes Klobuchar or Booker. Booker is a bit doubling down on a strength of his but Booker could be an asset. Eneryone is saying Harris but that would be a trainwreck. She's so phony trump would rip her to shreds.

[The Chosen One]

Booker is awful. He’s not a discount Obama he’s panhandler Obama.

[zitothebrave]

Booker is awful. He’s not a discount Obama he’s panhandler Obama.

And Biden is a discount Bill Clinton. Makes perfect sense.

[Carp]

I don't think she's a good candidate. I think Biden has a few choices, I think optimally he should go young and liberal with his running mate, but he could go safer and pick someone like Buttigieg who isn't liberal but does appeal more to younger voters than Biden does.

But if I was making my bets, I think he goes Klobuchar or Booker. Booker is a bit doubling down on a strength of his but Booker could be an asset. Eneryone is saying Harris but that would be a trainwreck. She's so phony trump would rip her to shreds.

How would Harris be a trainwreck? She is likeable, charismatic, and experienced. Tulsi Gabbard is also young, charismatic, and has the added benefit of being very pretty (shouldn't matter, but it probably does). She also is a veteran. Lots of positives about Gabbard except for experience.

If he goes young and super liberal, that is who Trump would destroy.

A female VP is the optimal choice at this point, though I don't know that the VP choice in general is all that important. Certainly Palin was a huge mistake, but all in all, I don't think VP choices have moved the needle much in elections. Buttigieg would also be a viable candidate. Sanders would be a great running mate but I doubt Sanders would be interested in VP at this stage of his life.

[cajunrevenge]

Is it too early to declare Biden's VP pick the frontrunner for 2024? I think the best choice is Wang.

[nsacpi]

Interesting piece in the NYT explaining why southern voters went for Biden. It is not the whole explanation, but a big part of it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/o...democrats.html

My friends in New York, many of them Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders supporters who see Mr. Biden as deeply uninspiring, were mystified. But after traveling through the South this past week though, I began to understand. Through Southern eyes, this election is not about policy or personality. It’s about something much darker.

Not long ago, these Americans lived under violent, anti-democratic governments. Now, many there say they see in President Trump and his supporters the same hostility and zeal for authoritarianism that marked life under Jim Crow.

For those who lived through the trauma of racial terrorism and segregation, or grew up in its long shadow, this history haunts the campaign trail. And Mr. Trump has summoned old ghosts.
“People are prideful of being racist again,” said Bobby Caradine, 47, who is black and has lived in Memphis all his life. “It’s right back out in the open.”

In Tennessee and Alabama, in Arkansas and Oklahoma and Mississippi, Democrats, black and white, told me they were united by a single, urgent goal: defeating Mr. Trump this November, with any candidate, and at any cost.

“There’s three things I want to happen,” Angela Watson, a 60-year-old black Democrat from Oklahoma City, told me at a campaign event there this week. “One, beat Trump. Two, beat Trump. And three, beat Trump.”

They were deeply skeptical that a democratic socialist like Mr. Sanders could unseat Mr. Trump. They liked Ms. Warren, but, burned by Hillary Clinton’s loss, were worried that too many of their fellow Americans wouldn’t vote for a woman.

Joe Biden is no Barack Obama. But he was somebody they knew. “He was with Obama for all those years,” Mr. Caradine said. "People are comfortable with him.” Faced with the prospect of their children losing the basic rights they won over many generations, these voters, as the old Chicago political saw goes, don’t want nobody that nobody sent.

“The past is never dead,” as the Mississippi novelist William Faulkner wrote in “Requiem for a Nun.” “It’s not even past.”

Faulkner was on my mind when I picked up the keys to a rental car in Memphis, for the long drive to Selma, Ala. Along the way, I stopped for breakfast in Olive Branch, Miss., where I met a man named Dave Wright. His grandfather, Leonard Wright, was William Faulkner’s physician. “Faulkner wrote about Granddaddy. Granddaddy didn’t like what he said, but it was all true,” Mr. Wright told me. He stopped there.

On Sunday, I marched across Selma’s Edmund Pettus Bridge with thousands, an annual exercise in remembering that draws Americans from all walks of life. In 1965, police attacked civil rights protesters here in an event that came to be called Bloody Sunday.

This year, the Democratic presidential candidates joined. So did Bob Smith, an older black man, who stood at the edge of the crowds holding a sign. “I was here in 1965, pistol whipped and kicked by police,” it read.

When I asked him about it, Mr. Smith smiled. “Yeah, I was here all right. Got the crap kicked out of me, too!” he told me with an easy laugh.

[nsacpi]

People have learned to be practical in the south. They don't ask for much.

I got to see a little of it myself, when I parachuted into the 5th grade from another country. Desegregation was still a issue at my school. I was clueless. And I'm still to this day puzzling out some of the things that happened to the 3 black kids in my class.

[cajunrevenge]

As a mystified Bernie Supporter I knew that. These people think if Hillary had a penis she would have won so they think nominating the male Hillary Clinton is the answer. Its infuriating. I went through this same **** with the "electable" candidate Mitt Romney in 2012. I think its a mistake to gauge who your best candidate is with states that you have no chance of winning like Alabama.



I also do not understand all this about being equivalent to Barack Obama. He is nothing special. If he was white he would still be a community organizer.

[Carp]

Is it too early to declare Biden's VP pick the frontrunner for 2024? I think the best choice is Wang.

Eh, a guy with no prior political background doesn't seem like the best choice for VP.