2020 Field

[acesfull86]

2020 Election Prediction: Boring. Low drama. Joe flips MI, PA, WI, NC, AZ. Has about a 50% chance of flipping FL and OH. Wins popular vote by 6-8 points.

Turns out that boring and uninspiring are a winning brand for our times.

#restoration

Prediction: we get a second wave of COVID-19 in the fall and Trump declares it's unsafe to hold an election. The country loses its mind.

Just wanted to put that out in the world knowing I never make a correct prediction.

[Carp]

2020 Election Prediction: Boring. Low drama. Joe flips MI, PA, WI, NC, AZ. Has about a 50% chance of flipping FL and OH. Wins popular vote by 6-8 points.

Turns out that boring and uninspiring are a winning brand for our times.

#restoration

I don't think he flips NC. WI and FL are total toss ups, but considering Trump just barely bested HRC (a far less liked candidate) in 2016, I'd give the edge to Biden at this point. I think MI, PA and AZ will definitely flip blue.

[Carp]

Prediction: we get a second wave of COVID-19 in the fall and Trump declares it's unsafe to hold an election. The country loses its mind.

Just wanted to put that out in the world knowing I never make a correct prediction.

I'd actually give this at least 10 percent chance of happening, may be closer to 20%. We know Trump isn't shy about denying people the opportunity to vote.

[nsacpi]

Prediction: we get a second wave of COVID-19 in the fall and Trump declares it's unsafe to hold an election. The country loses its mind.

Just wanted to put that out in the world knowing I never make a correct prediction.

who knows...COVID could mutate into something considerably more fearsome...we could all be living in caves and underground bunkers

[57Brave]

Dont know of a single HRC voter that says they wish they'd voted for Trump.
But, many Trump voters that say never again

your experience ?

[thethe]

Dont know of a single HRC voter that says they wish they'd voted for Trump.
But, many Trump voters that say never again

your experience ?

I can only imagine what your circle looks like. I'm sure its a very diverse political grouping.

[57Brave]

and your experience is speculating on who / whom lives in my circle.
Numb nuts -- I live in S Georgia
////////

can always rely on you to further a conversation

[acesfull86]

I'd actually give this at least 10 percent chance of happening, may be closer to 20%. We know Trump isn't shy about denying people the opportunity to vote.

Now would be a great time to figure out a way to have online voting. At least as an option, if not the standard, for now. Not going to pretend there aren't obstacles as far as election integrity, cyber security, access to internet/computers for large swaths of the population, among others. Also not going to pretend I have confidence in governments being able to figure all this out considering how poorly they execute simpler things. Just disappointing if this is the best we can do re voting in a world where so many of us are able to work, learn, bank, invest, pay bills, get medical advice, shop for essentials, etc, etc, etc, safely and easily from a computer in our homes.

I agree there's a non-zero chance this scenario plays out, too. Would be a nightmare on many levels.

[nsacpi]

Now would be a great time to figure out a way to have online voting. At least as an option, if not the standard, for now. Not going to pretend there aren't obstacles as far as election integrity, cyber security, access to internet/computers for large swaths of the population, among others. Also not going to pretend I have confidence in governments being able to figure all this out considering how poorly they execute simpler things. Just disappointing if this is the best we can do re voting in a world where so many of us are able to work, learn, bank, invest, pay bills, get medical advice, shop for essentials, etc, etc, etc, safely and easily from a computer in our homes.

I agree there's a non-zero chance this scenario plays out, too. Would be a nightmare on many levels.

As a more modest alternative, how about having voting in person over a longer period. Say 1 or 2 weeks. The logistical and technical challenges would not be as great as going full online.

[acesfull86]

As a more modest alternative, how about having voting in person over a longer period. Say 1 or 2 weeks. The logistical and technical challenges would not be as great as going full online.

For sure. Would be interesting to see how that plays out...would early returns be reported, and would they make people more or less likely to cast their vote if they haven't done so. It's a more attainable goal than setting up online voting, given the time constraint.

[Carp]

As a more modest alternative, how about having voting in person over a longer period. Say 1 or 2 weeks. The logistical and technical challenges would not be as great as going full online.

This seems like a very logical and feasible option.

[nsacpi]

I don't think he flips NC. WI and FL are total toss ups, but considering Trump just barely bested HRC (a far less liked candidate) in 2016, I'd give the edge to Biden at this point. I think MI, PA and AZ will definitely flip blue.

We don't have any March or April polls in NC. There were 3 in February. In two of them, Biden led by 4 points. He led by 2 points in the third one.

In Wisconsin, there have been three polls in March. Biden led by 2 in one of them and by 3 in the other two.

Arizona has been interesting. Kelly looks strong in the Senate race. There have been 5 presidential polls and Biden has led all five: by 1, 3, 6, 8 and 1.

[thethe]

Winning message here

[sturg33]

[goldfly]

deep state

obviously

bro

[cajunrevenge]

Prediction: we get a second wave of COVID-19 in the fall and Trump declares it's unsafe to hold an election. The country loses its mind.

Just wanted to put that out in the world knowing I never make a correct prediction.

My biggest fear has been reopening too soon leading to another wave and forcing an even longer shutdown. If they try that with the election the speaker of the house becomes President on inauguration day. Constitution is clear a Presidents term ends but my question is who would make him. I think having an election in that scenario of a second wave benefits Trump. His supporters would go to vote if you surrounded the polling stations with landmines.

[The Chosen One]

My biggest fear has been reopening too soon leading to another wave and forcing an even longer shutdown. If they try that with the election the speaker of the house becomes President on inauguration day. Constitution is clear a Presidents term ends but my question is who would make him. I think having an election in that scenario of a second wave benefits Trump. His supporters would go to vote if you surrounded the polling stations with landmines.

We would really really see Mitch McConnell go into Satan Mode.

[57Brave]

[thethe]

'Convenient' exit strategy for the DNC.

[cajunrevenge]

https://nypost.com/2020/04/10/democr...oll-finds/amp/





It begins...