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Thread: 2019 BA Top 100

  1. #81
    PosiBraves Hell Gatekeeper
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    All 3 players are injury risks. There is no question about that.

    One difference is JD is a potential 4-5 win player, while the other guys aren't.

    The other difference is the Braves are on the hook for 1 year for JD, while the other teams are on the hook for much longer.

    The Braves took less risk overall, and a chance at a higher return on that risk.

    Seems clear to me which is the less risky gamble...not that I necessarily agree with AA's ultra conservative approach. I think he should have assumed more risk in an attempt to defend the recent NL East title (I would have signed Grandal, Brantley and a utility guy like Asdrubal), but I can understand his plan.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/35/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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  3. #82
    It's OVER 5,000!
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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Allow me to summarize...

    Derrrrrpppppp
    I used to feel sorry for him when you would bash him. I still don't like reading you guys exchange insults, but he deserves most of what he gets. It's sad really.
    Last edited by Carp; 01-29-2019 at 07:36 PM.

  4. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    He was "healthy" prior to the last two seasons as well. It's an absolutely understandable gamble - you have to roll the dice when you can get that kind of talent, and I'm thrilled he's a Brave - but at his age his health is no less a gamble than Brantley's or Pollock's after missing huge chunks of time recently.

    Why is tempering expectations for Donaldson different than lowering expectations for the other two - or Bumgarner for that matter? Not expecting any of that group to perform at peak levels like they did in their primes is certainly reasonable IMO. Should we really expect better results from Donaldson simply because he's a Brave and was the one AA was willing to gamble on staying healthy?
    Everyone is a gamble. He's just a better gamble than Pollock or Brantley. He has a better track record of health than either player and his potential production is substantially higher as well. It isn't difficult.

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  6. #84
    Sabermetric Slut
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Everyone is a gamble. He's just a better gamble than Pollock or Brantley. He has a better track record of health than either player and his potential production is substantially higher as well. It isn't difficult.
    But it is

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  8. #85
    Shift Leader CyYoung31's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Everyone is a gamble. He's just a better gamble than Pollock or Brantley. He has a better track record of health than either player and his potential production is substantially higher as well. It isn't difficult for most people.
    FTFY

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  10. #86
    "What is a clvclv"
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Everyone is a gamble. He's just a better gamble than Pollock or Brantley. He has a better track record of health than either player and his potential production is substantially higher as well. It isn't difficult.
    Which has been my entire point. Folks reading any more than "Donaldson's a gamble" into anything I've posted are simply looking for an argument - hard to be much clearer than saying "I'm thrilled he's a Brave" and that it's an understandable gamble. It's a better gamble than Brantley and Pollock only because of the length of commitment.

    The list of players who have put up big seasons (7.3 WAR or higher) after their 33rd birthday is pretty elite -

    Ruth, Bonds (juiced up), Mays, Honus Wagner, Rogers Hornsby, Nap Lajoie, Ted Williams, Gehrig, Aaron, Jackie Robinson, Clemente, Dan Brouthers, Lonnie Smith, Eddie Stanky, Luis Gonzalez, Larry Walker, Luke Appling, Ken Caminiti (coked up and juiced up), Chipper, Ken Williams, McGwire (juiced up), Votto, Charlie Gehringer, Roberto Alomar, Cano (juiced up), Magglio Ordonez

    but folks around here talk like a 5+ WAR season is a given with Donaldson. I have a tough time understanding why those expectations don't seem pretty unreasonable given his recent health concerns and the fact that even Steamer projects him for 4.1 IF he plays 126 games.
    Waters is intersting too. Would prefer a guy that projects to more power though. (2017 Draft Thread)

    If they don't make additions they can expect the same 3-5 win improvement they saw last year. That makes the Braves a 75-78 win team. (What's the best we could hope for in 2018?)


    The Blackjack Dealer

  11. #87
    Very Flirtatious, but Doubts What Love Is. jpx7's Avatar
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    I think most folks are hoping for ~4 WAR and relatively good health. Under 3 would be a disappointment. Over 5 would be gravy—but, unlike Pollock or Brantley, Donaldson’s shown (over multiple seasons) he’s very capable of gravy.
    "For all his tattooings he was on the whole a clean, comely looking cannibal."

  12. #88
    PosiBraves Hell Gatekeeper
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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    The list of players who have put up big seasons (7.3 WAR or higher) after their 33rd birthday is pretty elite -

    but folks around here talk like a 5+ WAR season is a given with Donaldson. I have a tough time understanding why those expectations don't seem pretty unreasonable given his recent health concerns and the fact that even Steamer projects him for 4.1 IF he plays 126 games.
    Wow...The stupidity continues endlessly...

    Where in the world did that 7.3 WAR value even come from? Why is that specific value at all pertinent to this discussion? Where did anyone suggest JD would produce 7+ WAR?

    Who stated "a 5+ WAR season is a given with Donaldson"? Seriously, who has said that?

    The issue isn't that folks are looking for an argument.

    The issue is that you continuously say things that are so stupid the only thing folks can do in response is argue.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/35/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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