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Thread: Analyzing Dallas Keuchel's Stuff

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    Analyzing Dallas Keuchel's Stuff

    There has been some talk about the Braves maybe fitting Keuchel in the budget. The purpose of this post is to analyze Keuchel's stuff, not to debate whether or not he can/should be added to the roster.

    Keuchel threw 5 pitches in 2018: SI (45%), SL (18%), FC (15%), CH (13%), FA (10%).

    Those pitches break down as follows...

    SI: Velo = 89.5 mph (Grade 39.0), XMov = 6.4" (Grade 32.9), VMov = 4.3" (Grade 56.0)
    This sinker is a grade 40 pitch overall, and barely usable at the MLB level.

    SL: Velo = 79.0 mph (Grade 26.0), XMov = -5.6" (Grade 65.9), ZMov = -2.5" (Grade 69.3)
    The best slurve (or one of) in the game. This slow slider's impressive movement makes it a 65/70 pitch and is clearly the key to DK's success.

    FC: Velo = 86.9 (Grade 41.5), XMov = -1.7" (Grade 53.2), ZMov = 3.6" (Grade 63.7)
    This slow cutter with good movement is a 50/55, maybe a solid 55.

    CH: Velo Delta = 10.1 mph (Grade 61.5), XMov = 8.2" (Grade 53.7), ZMov = 3.8" (Grade 54.4)
    This is a legit plus change, pretty close to a 60 overall.

    FA: Velo = 90.2 mph (Grade 38.8), XMov = -0.3" (Grade 22.4), ZMov = 7.7" (Grade 38.2)
    The 4 seamer is a terrible pitch, so it's no wonder he rarely throws it.

    Command: 2.5-2.75 BB/9 (Grade 55/60)
    Above average to plus command.

    So yeah, Keuchel is the prototypical soft tossing LHP who "just knows how to pitch". He uses good control and plus or better off speed stuff to induce weak contact and avoids getting hurt with poorly located fastballs at all costs. He gobbles up 180+ innings and produces 3+ wins because of it. For a prospect, the "just knows how to pitch" comment gets a dismissive chuckle, but for a guy with a track record like Keuchel it holds some real merit.

    While Keuchel doesn't rely on fastball velocity for success, it's still good to see no real signs of declining stuff:



    which is certainly better to see than something like this:



    I have no issues with projecting DK as a 3+ win guy for the next 1-2 years. The 3rd year might get a little dicey, and the 4th year even more so. There are scenarios where DK makes sense for the current Braves roster, but I question whether or not they can truly afford another $15M+ player.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 02-11-2019 at 04:48 PM.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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  3. #2
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    I'm mostly talking out of my ass here as I haven't done the research on how different types of pitchers age, but it seems as if a higher proportion of guys like Keuchel seem to sustain something close to their peak level of success deeper into their 30s as opposed to the power guys. If you have any kind of data on that (or could point me in a direction of where to find it) I'd love to see it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DirkPiggler View Post
    I'm mostly talking out of my ass here as I haven't done the research on how different types of pitchers age, but it seems as if a higher proportion of guys like Keuchel seem to sustain something close to their peak level of success deeper into their 30s as opposed to the power guys. If you have any kind of data on that (or could point me in a direction of where to find it) I'd love to see it.
    I don't know of any real data, but I tend to agree with your suspicion. It's pretty well understood that control ages very well.

    Of course, when the stuff starts to go, the breaking stuff starts to go as well. DK isn't immune to that phenomenon, no matter what kinds of pitches he relies upon for success.

    Using fastball velocity as the proxy for all "stuff" isn't perfect, but the data we do have suggests DK isn't currently suffering from declining stuff, so he's a reasonable bet to keep performing as expected for the short term. I still wouldn't give a pitcher in his 30s a long term deal, however.

    Usual "pending health" caveats obviously still applies, as it does to all pitchers.
    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

    Matt Adams to the Tampa Bay Rays for Jake Odorizzi makes too much sense not to happen -clvclv 10/17/17
    Matt Adams non-tendered by Braves 12/2/17

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    It's OVER 5,000! msstate7's Avatar
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    Terrible post. You should stick with the back-and-forth name calling and such

    Really though, these type posts are what make you a great poster.

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    So sign him and have zero spots for any of our young pitchers???

    I would gladly take him over Julio, but everyone says we canít move him. At some point these young guys have to get experience.

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