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Thread: Most likely surprise this year?

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    Most likely surprise this year?

    1. Pache blows up and replaces ender

    2. Riley proves to be an ample outfielder and takes over LF this season

    3. Gohara truly is in the BSOL and becomes a 3-win pitcher.

    4. Anderson pushes his way into the rotation

    5. Swanson's bat comes around and he becomes a 3+ win player

    6. Newcomb reigns in the control enough to be a 3-win pitcher

    7. JD finds the fountain of youth and becomes a 6+ win player again

    8. Mac/flowers out-WAR JTR

    9. Phillies implode and kapler is fired in-season

    10. Braves win WS
    Swanson sucks

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    3. Gohara truly is in the BSOL and becomes a 3-win pitcher.

    I'll go woth Gohara. He was primed to be in the rotation before he ahd an offseason from hell. People can use death as a motivator

    He has all the talent. If he has his head right and he's in shape, he could put together a great season.

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    I'm not sure if we are only supposed to pick one, but I'll go with 4. and 7. I think 3. is my next best guess.

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    Swanson and Josh for the win. Gohard will also hit 2.7 war. So he will he close.
    Coppy

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    I'm going with Swanson. I didn't jinx him this year with an ops bet, so I expect him to come around

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    I'll disqualify 6 because Newk doesn't have to improve his control to put together a 3 win season if he throws 180+ innings.

    4 is pretty much a guarantee. I'd be mildly shocked if Anderson doesn't make an MLB start in 2019.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I'll disqualify 6 because Newk doesn't have to improve his control to put together a 3 win season if he throws 180+ innings.

    4 is pretty much a guarantee. I'd be mildly shocked if Anderson doesn't make an MLB start in 2019.
    Bad wording by me. I meant sticks in the rotation, not spot starts

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    Most likely upside surprise relative to "systems" forecasts: Swanson

    Most likely downside surprise relative to "systems" forecasts: Muk

    Steamer has Swanson at a .712 OPS and Muk at a .752.

    In terms of the pitchers, I am long Gohara and Soroka and short Toussaint.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 02-13-2019 at 03:15 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Most likely upside surprise relative to "systems" forecasts: Swanson

    Most likely downside surprise relative to "systems" forecasts: Muk

    Steamer has Swanson at a .712 OPS and Muk at a .752.

    In terms of the pitchers, I am long Gohara and Soroka and short Toussaint.
    You buying puts on Touki?

    I'm still holding out hope for Touki to put it all together, but yes there is some risk there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    You buying puts on Touki?

    I'm still holding out hope for Touki to put it all together, but yes there is some risk there.
    I still don’t get why people are so down on him. He has the most steady progression of our prospects. He is only 22 and shows signs every year he is ‘putting it together’. I guess prospect fatigue and always hearing how if he could only reign in his control. The fact is he has reigned in his control every year. I will buy any touki stock you guys are selling.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by bravesfanMatt View Post
    I still don’t get why people are so down on him. He has the most steady progression of our prospects. He is only 22 and shows signs every year he is ‘putting it together’. I guess prospect fatigue and always hearing how if he could only reign in his control. The fact is he has reigned in his control every year. I will buy any touki stock you guys are selling.
    Yeah agreed. No matter what, a few of these guys are going to explode this year. Not sure which exact ones, but am sure one or two will.

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    7, 4, and 2 best chances as well as Gohara.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    You buying puts on Touki?

    I'm still holding out hope for Touki to put it all together, but yes there is some risk there.
    Yeah. In general, I am a bit higher on Gohara, Soroka and Wilson than most. And a bit lower on Touki, Anderson and Wright.

    I'm rooting for all of them though!
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    11.) Pache explodes offensively in the first half, leading to a trade of Inciarte, Wright, and Muller or Wentz for Kluber by the deadline.

    While it may not lead directly to a 2019 call-up for him, Acuna slides over with Duvall, Riley, and Camargo covering LF down the stretch. Pache opens 2020 in CF with Acuna finally moving to RF, and Newcomb is traded next winter for Peralta with Riley taking over at 3B to free-up most of the money to cover Kluber AND Peralta in 2020.

    12.) Gohara, Soroka, and Fried develop as hoped, leading to Touki's shift to the pen where he replaces Vizcaino in 2020 freeing-up the rest of the money to cover the Kluber and Peralta acquisitions - with Touki/Minter/Sobotka becoming the new O'Ventrel.

    O'Day and Julio are sent packing next winter, leaving you with a 2020 Opening Day rotation of Kluber, Gohara, Folty, Fried, and Soroka because AA's able to trade the last year of control of Gausman to the Reds for Jesse Winker who frees-up even more money when he replaces Markakis when he's finally sent out to pasture.



    More to come...
    Last edited by clvclv; 02-14-2019 at 07:34 AM.
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    12. Not sure Soroka with shoulder soreness should be starting and relieving at the same time. Bold strategy but just don’t think it is well thought out.
    Coppy

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    Quote Originally Posted by Chico View Post
    People can use death as a motivator.
    You have clearly known more well-motivated dead people than I have.

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    Quote Originally Posted by clvclv View Post
    11.) Pache explodes offensively in the first half, leading to a trade of Inciarte, Wright, and Muller or Wentz for Kluber by the deadline.

    While it may not lead directly to a 2019 call-up for him, Acuna slides over with Duvall, Riley, and Camargo covering LF down the stretch. Pache opens 2020 in CF with Acuna finally moving to RF, and Newcomb is traded next winter for Peralta with Riley taking over at 3B to free-up most of the money to cover Kluber AND Peralta in 2020.

    12.) Gohara, Soroka, and Fried develop as hoped, leading to Touki's shift to the pen where he replaces Vizcaino in 2020 freeing-up the rest of the money to cover the Kluber and Peralta acquisitions - with Touki/Minter/Soroka becoming the new O'Ventrel.

    O'Day and Julio are sent packing next winter, leaving you with a 2020 Opening Day rotation of Kluber, Gohara, Folty, Fried, and Soroka because AA's able to trade the last year of control of Gausman to the Reds for Jesse Winker who frees-up even more money when he replaces Markakis when he's finally sent out to pasture.



    More to come...
    Next winter Peralta will just have one year of control left. I would hope we wouldn't trade Newcomb for him unless Newcomb is awful this year or something.

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    Fried will pitch 100+ innings at a 3.5 WAR 200IP rate
    Natural Immunity Croc

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    Quote Originally Posted by msstate7 View Post
    1. Pache blows up and replaces ender

    2. Riley proves to be an ample outfielder and takes over LF this season

    3. Gohara truly is in the BSOL and becomes a 3-win pitcher.

    4. Anderson pushes his way into the rotation

    5. Swanson's bat comes around and he becomes a 3+ win player

    6. Newcomb reigns in the control enough to be a 3-win pitcher

    7. JD finds the fountain of youth and becomes a 6+ win player again

    8. Mac/flowers out-WAR JTR

    9. Phillies implode and kapler is fired in-season

    10. Braves win WS
    Give me #3 & 5

    I would say #2 but even if Riley is good it will be in a platoon role. Markakis is going to get 100 games.
    Natural Immunity Croc

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    Don't see anything about Hessman coming out of retirement and hitting the series-winning PH HR in Game #7 of the 2019 World Series.

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