We have seen 2 young SPs recently extended by other teams: Nola and Severino.
Here are the breakdowns of their deals...
Nola
2019, Age 26, Arb 1 - $6M ($6.6M estimate)
2020, Age 27, Arb 2 - $8M
2021, Age 28, Arb 3 - $11.75M
2022, Age 29, FA 1 - $15M
2023, Age 30, FA 2 - $16M option ($4.25M buy out)
Severino
2019, Age 25, Arb 1 - $6M (Super Two, $5.1M estimate)
2020, Age 26, Arb 2 - $10M
2021, Age 27, Arb 3 - $10.25
2022, Age 28, Arb 4 - $11M
2023, Age 29, FA 1 - $15M option ($2.75M buyout)
In both cases, the teams are able to be done with the pitcher before they experience any decline in their 30s.
The only pitcher on the Braves roster to possibly extend is Folty, who was also a Super Two. His current control and contract situation breaks down as follows...
2019, Age 27, Arb 2 - $5.5M
2020, Age 28, Arb 3
2021, Age 29, Arb 4
As is plainly evident, Folty is already controlled through the entirety of his 20s, with zero downside risk taken on by the club (he can be dumped at any time). Guaranteeing Folty money at this point would only be buying the Braves control over seasons in his 30s, which are likely to be the beginning of his decline. Due to that fact, I would expect that year of control to be in the form of a club option.
Is it worth taking on the risk of guaranteeing Folty $20M+ in 2020/2021 to secure a ~$15M option over his Age 30 season?
As much as I've been rooting for Folty to break out for years now, and have predicted him to be the next Ace of the staff, I would never be on board with extending him at this point in time. He is too inconsistent to risk guaranteeing him money for his Arb years in exchange for control over a FA season that is likely to be the start of his decline.
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