We would expect states that adopted TIS sentencing to have increases in
the state prison population because the law led to longer sentences and an
increased likelihood of prison as opposed to another form of punishment for all
crimes (Shepherd, 2002; Stemen et al., 2005). Both the DD analysis using adjacent
states and the DDD analysis provide some evidence that having a state
implement TIS and receive federal funding leads to a decreased likelihood of
college enrollment for Black males. The point estimate for the decrease in the
likelihood of college enrollment from both of these analyses are close and
demonstrate an approximately 30% decrease in the probability of enrollment for Black males after a state adopts Truth–in–Sentencing laws. Given that 20% of the
increase in state incarceration can be attributed to the increase in imprisonment
for drug infractions, and the increase in incarceration was concentrated among
young men and particularly young Black men aged 18-24, these laws likely had a
deleterious effect on the ability of young men to enroll in college. As previously
mentioned, Western et al (2010), show that some of the rise in incarceration over
the time period from 1980 to 2010, came from drug crimes, although TIS laws
purportedly targeted violent crime. The Black young men in the age group most
likely to attend college were also most likely to be arrested and imprisoned
(Carson, 2015). Being imprisoned and having a greater likelihood of being
sentenced to prison for young Black males decreased the likelihood of college
attendance in light of the difficulties in accessing secondary education to
complete high school degrees while incarcerated and an inability to receive
federal financial aid to pursue postsecondary studies while incarcerated (FAFSA,
2017; Kirk & Sampson, 2013; US Congress, 1994). Further, many colleges and
potential employers asked questions about felonies and incarceration that
decreased the likelihood of acceptance for persons formerly incarcerated
(Bernberg & Krohn, 2003).
Prior research and statistics clearly demonstrate that Black men have been
disproportionately arrested, convicted, and served longer sentences for the same
crimes when compared to their White peers (Mustard, 2001; Tonry, 1994; US
Sentencing Commission, 2001; US Sentencing Commission, 2001). This increasing incarceration has had many effects on the lives of Black men (Western, 2006).
However, to date, less evidence has existed on the effects of this incarceration on
Black male college enrollment (DiPrete & Buchmann, 2006; Kirk & Sampson,
2013). This paper provides evidence that the Violent Crime Control and Law
Enforcement Act of 1994 led to a decrease in the likelihood of college enrollment
using variation in timing and adoption of state Truth–in–Sentencing Laws. Given
that these results suggest that Black males have decreased access to higher
education, at a time when the difference between earnings between a high school
graduate and a college graduate are increasing, this study has implications for
policy makers looking to increase access to and retention in higher education.
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