The Phillies

[USMA76]

Since the end of last season, I've only periodically checked in to this board and I'm going to admit being lazy in not wanting to sort through a number of threads.

Has Enscheff weighed in on Philadelphia's off season additions? My non-analytical gut (bad, I know) says they've gotten better with McCutcheon, Realmuto, and Harper but how much really? It also seems to me that Harper was a stretch because the Phillies GM appeared to be bidding against himself when none of the "big money" teams like NY, Boston, LAD, and Chicago Cubs seemed to have that much interest in him.

If E has opined on the matter, please point me in the right direction. If not, what's the "Reader's Digest" consensus of how much better the Phillies are as a result of their moves and how much the Braves have been stymied by standing pat?

Thanks.

[CyYoung31]

“CLVDEEEEEERRRPPPPP”

-Enscheff’s thoughts on the Phillies offseason.

[mqt]

Since the end of last season, I've only periodically checked in to this board and I'm going to admit being lazy in not wanting to sort through a number of threads.

Has Enscheff weighed in on Philadelphia's off season additions? My non-analytical gut (bad, I know) says they've gotten better with McCutcheon, Realmuto, and Harper but how much really? It also seems to me that Harper was a stretch because the Phillies GM appeared to be bidding against himself when none of the "big money" teams like NY, Boston, LAD, and Chicago Cubs seemed to have that much interest in him.

If E has opined on the matter, please point me in the right direction. If not, what's the "Reader's Digest" consensus of how much better the Phillies are as a result of their moves and how much the Braves have been stymied by standing pat?

Thanks.

Oh, really?

[Enscheff]

I typically defer all non-Braves projections to FG

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthchart...tion=Standings

The Phillies are pretty clearly one of the NL favorites.

[nsacpi]

I typically defer all non-Braves projections to FG

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthchart...tion=Standings

The Phillies are pretty clearly one of the NL favorites.

relative to fangraphs I think the gnats are overrated by 2-3 wins, the braves underrated by a similar amount and the fillies and metropolitans are about right

[Heyward]

Their offense is a LOT better but their SP leaves alot to be desired.

Arrieta really struggled down the stretch, even Nola did too. Elfin, Velasquez, and Pivetta did too. Bigger story is i think all of them made 30+ starts last year, too lazy to look at it but thats unsustainable. Their SP was a bigger concern to me than their offense, but both were and they traded away their best SP prospect who could maybe help mid-season this year.

[nsacpi]

Their offense is a LOT better but their SP leaves alot to be desired.

Arrieta really struggled down the stretch, even Nola did too. Elfin, Velasquez, and Pivetta did too. Bigger story is i think all of them made 30+ starts last year, too lazy to look at it but thats unsustainable. Their SP was a bigger concern to me than their offense, but both were and they traded away their best SP prospect who could maybe help mid-season this year.

fangraphs has Nola as a 4 WAR pitcher and the others at about 2 WAR. Seems about right. Overall fangraphs has their starting rotation at 12 wins.

They have the Braves rotation at 10 wins.

Reasons I think fangraphs is underrating the Braves:

1) Pitching depth in AAA, which the projection systems generally don't fully account for.
2) Braves have the most young talent in the East (Albies, Acuna, Swanson, Camargo, all the pitchers)
3) Rating Soto at 5 wins and Acuna at 4 doesn't make sense. Acuna imo should project as the better player.

In general I think the projection systems fail to give enough weight to the most recent half season of data for young players. They have a weighting system (in terms of how much weight to give the most recent season, or 2 seasons ago or 3 seasons ago) that is the same for all ages. The weighting system needs to be age dependent. It also needs to be broken down into smaller samples (half season) especially for younger players.

[DirkPiggler]

fangraphs has Nola as a 4 WAR pitcher and the others at about 2 WAR. Seems about right. Overall fangraphs has their starting rotation at 12 wins.

They have the Braves rotation at 10 wins.

Reasons I think fangraphs is underrating the Braves:

1) Pitching depth in AAA, which the projection systems generally don't fully account for.
2) Braves have the most young talent in the East (Albies, Acuna, Swanson, Camargo, all the pitchers)
3) Rating Soto at 5 wins and Acuna at 4 doesn't make sense. Acuna imo should project as the better player.

In general I think the projection systems fail to give enough weight to the most recent half season of data for young players. They have a weighting system (in terms of how much weight to give the most recent season, or 2 seasons ago or 3 seasons ago) that is the same for all ages. The weighting system needs to be age dependent. It also needs to be broken down into smaller samples (half season) especially for younger players.

Looking simply at the Braves, I think they severely underrate Acuña (maybe as much as 2 wins), and slightly underrate Freeman and Swanson. Like you, I also think they fail to account for the back end of the rotation. Someone will step up and provide better than sub-1.0 WAR production in at least one of the last two rotation spots I would think. If not, there's no point in worrying about the projections as the team isn't going to be in any kind of pennant race. Teheran is the albatross that needs to find his way to the bullpen or to Gwinnett at some point. I also think giving the Phillies a 1.6 WAR advantage in the bullpen is questionable at best.

Fair warning...this post was compiled using the WAG method, tinged with a healthy portion of homerism.

[Chico]

Their offense is a LOT better but their SP leaves alot to be desired.

Arrieta really struggled down the stretch, even Nola did too. Elfin, Velasquez, and Pivetta did too. Bigger story is i think all of them made 30+ starts last year, too lazy to look at it but thats unsustainable. Their SP was a bigger concern to me than their offense, but both were and they traded away their best SP prospect who could maybe help mid-season this year.

This really helped them out a lot last year. I'd assume the law of averages means 2019 is not going to be that lucky for them. That's unheard of this day and age.

[Heyward]

This really helped them out a lot last year. I'd assume the law of averages means 2019 is not going to be that lucky for them. That's unheard of this day and age.

I just checked, Elfin had 24, but the other 4 had 30+. I guess it's possible, but thats almost unheard of in todays game.

[Carp]

I get the projections, but basically no way the Phillies rotation reaches 12 wins.

[bravesfanMatt]

I get the projections, but basically no way the Phillies rotation reaches 12 wins.

Nola had something like 10. I could see them hitting 12 if they all stay healthy. That is a big if.

[nsacpi]

I get the projections, but basically no way the Phillies rotation reaches 12 wins.

Nola 4, Arietta, Pivetta and Velasquez 2 each. That seems ok to me. The fifth spot will probably give them less than 2 wins. So it is a little optimistic. And they are not as well set up as we are to deal with losing a starting pitcher. OTOH if they lose a pitcher, they have shown a willingness to give up prospects and spend dollars to move wins into the 2019 column. They haven't gotten good value in doing so. But they have been willing to do that.

[Southcack77]

actually no...the projections do not have age dependent weighting...all ages have the same weights and then on top of that they overlay an aging curve

it is a flaw because the second half data for Acuna should receive a lot more weight than the second half data for say Freddie Freeman...the forecast systems don't even break the data down by half season (which is particularly an issue for younger players but imo also is relevant for players at the tail end of their careers)...ie a poor second half by a player in his mid to late thirties is more of a red flag than someone in his 20s...but the systems do not recognize this

systems like Steamer and ZiPS are a great starting point, but i'm sure every front office refines their projections in various ways to take into account wrinkles the publicly available projections do not

My impression from some of the guys who are still actively working on projections is that they test lots of different methodologies and discard those that don’t improve prediction performance over time.

You have a reasonable thesis but I suspect it’s been thought of before and tested. But only way to know for sure would to open a dialogue with the brain trust behind them.

[50PoundHead]

I don't care about their addition of Harper. The fact that Phil Gosselin is with the Phillies scares me to death.