Remember a couple years ago when the Rangers made the playoffs on the back of a crazy record in 1 run games?Originally Posted by thewupk
Remember a couple years ago when the Rangers made the playoffs on the back of a crazy record in 1 run games?
Yeah. The Braves are quite a bit better team than the Rangers were but that team instantly comes to mind when thinking of teams that over perform due to 1 run game records.
Forever Fredi
Yeah looking at runs scored it's about the same, but we've also missed a good chunk of time from Dansby, Neck, and Ender. I feel we're a good bit better than they are.
Those 3 are all below average hitters...
Besides their 2 best hitters are better than our best. It all evens out my friend.
Just refreshed my memory...
The 2016 Rangers went 36-11 in 1 run games and finished with the best record in the AL. They got bounced pretty easily from the 2016 playoffs when the Jays swept them 3-0.
At the time of this article in 2017: https://www.star-telegram.com/sports...173790276.html
their luck had almost completely reversed and they were 12-23 in 1 run games.
All higher order winning percentages have the Braves as a true talent ~.560 winning percentage team, which is about 91 wins over 162 games. The Braves actual 80 wins vs "expected wins" so far of 71-73 suggests the Braves are currently the luckiest team in MLB, and due for quite a bit of regression. Hopefully that regression doesn't slam them in the faces during the postseason.
Maybe A-Rod was right about having even number leads. If you're up by 2 runs then you don't have to worry about fluke 1-run game records.
Forever Fredi
There is a more optimistic take on the Braves. Their record at the end of May was 30-27, with a run differential of zero. Their record since is 56-27 with a +98 run differential. The most identifiable difference is Donaldson turning it on after a slow start. I'm pretty confident in asserting the real Donaldson is closer to the one we've been seeing the last few months. Also the pen has improved since the trade deadline. This team since end of May has been pretty close to elite. Not quite on par with the Astros and Dodgers, but pretty close. I think there is a case to be made we are the third best team in the majors going into the post-season.
So yes, we've had a significant amount of luck. But also this team (as currently constructed) is better than a true talent .560 team.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
You understand we can regress over the next 3 weeks, right? Guess what that means? I mean, 91 wins may not win the division. That’s why I’m not writing us in as division winners yet.
Death blow
Not that the Braves would go 5-17 over the last 22. But going 8-14 isn’t out of the realm of possibility, and neither is the Nats going 17- 7 over that same time span.
I don’t think either of those happen, especially since I believe the Braves are better than either you or Scheff are giving them credit for being (I think they and the Nats are about even). But, I’m not comfortable yet.
The braves are a very good team. 3rd best in the NL imo for their true talent. To me the Nats have a slight edge due to their rotation. But the Braves have the division in the bag.
I don't see how the gnats can recover from today's death blow.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
That’s how I see it too.
Keep in kind also a lot of that run differential was from lousy bullpenning with big leads. A lot of those guys are gone, and the ones who remain have turned it around recently. What’s less sustainable is probably the knack for scoring in the late innings. I can’t remember the last game the Braves did not score in the 7th inning or later.
To me, the playoffs is going to come down to the same thing for us this year, which hasn't gone our way for 2 decades now. Hitters not stepping up in key situations, and pitchers not maintaining their success of the regular season. Will either of those 2 things change for us this year? Personally I don't see it happening, especially against teams more suited to withstand the playoff format.
Luckily we wont face that team in the first round
I actually feel like we have a shot to take down the Cardinals. They don't scare me as much as the Cubs, Nats, or Dodgers. Feel like they are in a similar situation as us.
Oh, Lugo pitches 2 innings today. LOL.
I think the Nationals are a pretty good team. Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin are formidable. Offensively, I think their best players are having better years (though not by much) than ours and I think the dead spots in their line-up don't have the rigor mortis our lesser guys have (at least at this point). But, they play 162 games for a reason and there aren't do-overs.
The point is they are better than their replacements, so their absence means fewer runs. Well except for Neck, but his absence still forces the bench to be shorter.
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