Just refreshed my memory...
The 2016 Rangers went 36-11 in 1 run games and finished with the best record in the AL. They got bounced pretty easily from the 2016 playoffs when the Jays swept them 3-0.
At the time of this article in 2017: https://www.star-telegram.com/sports...173790276.html
their luck had almost completely reversed and they were 12-23 in 1 run games.
All higher order winning percentages have the Braves as a true talent ~.560 winning percentage team, which is about 91 wins over 162 games. The Braves actual 80 wins vs "expected wins" so far of 71-73 suggests the Braves are currently the luckiest team in MLB, and due for quite a bit of regression. Hopefully that regression doesn't slam them in the faces during the postseason.
There is a more optimistic take on the Braves. Their record at the end of May was 30-27, with a run differential of zero. Their record since is 56-27 with a +98 run differential. The most identifiable difference is Donaldson turning it on after a slow start. I'm pretty confident in asserting the real Donaldson is closer to the one we've been seeing the last few months. Also the pen has improved since the trade deadline. This team since end of May has been pretty close to elite. Not quite on par with the Astros and Dodgers, but pretty close. I think there is a case to be made we are the third best team in the majors going into the post-season.
So yes, we've had a significant amount of luck. But also this team (as currently constructed) is better than a true talent .560 team.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Not that the Braves would go 5-17 over the last 22. But going 8-14 isn’t out of the realm of possibility, and neither is the Nats going 17- 7 over that same time span.
I don’t think either of those happen, especially since I believe the Braves are better than either you or Scheff are giving them credit for being (I think they and the Nats are about even). But, I’m not comfortable yet.
I don't see how the gnats can recover from today's death blow.
"I am a victim, I will tell you. I am a victim."
"I am your retribution."
Keep in kind also a lot of that run differential was from lousy bullpenning with big leads. A lot of those guys are gone, and the ones who remain have turned it around recently. What’s less sustainable is probably the knack for scoring in the late innings. I can’t remember the last game the Braves did not score in the 7th inning or later.
To me, the playoffs is going to come down to the same thing for us this year, which hasn't gone our way for 2 decades now. Hitters not stepping up in key situations, and pitchers not maintaining their success of the regular season. Will either of those 2 things change for us this year? Personally I don't see it happening, especially against teams more suited to withstand the playoff format.
Oh, Lugo pitches 2 innings today. LOL.
I think the Nationals are a pretty good team. Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin are formidable. Offensively, I think their best players are having better years (though not by much) than ours and I think the dead spots in their line-up don't have the rigor mortis our lesser guys have (at least at this point). But, they play 162 games for a reason and there aren't do-overs.