4/100 for a 32 year old of his caliber is probably right where he should be paid. So honestly I am wrong. The team should be fine with that deal. I think I am basing my comment more off a prediction than reality. I have a feeling he will struggle at least 2 of those 4 years.Originally Posted by Heyward
Coppy
What? His decline was clear last year. This has nothing to do with the QO. Yes, that rule needs to change but it has nothing to do with Kimbrel declining last year, which clearly continued into this year and now he's injured. He's a big boy, I'm sure he had plenty of multi year offers he could have accepted for several millions of dollars. And either way, he's filthy rich. I don't feel bad for him in the least. That's silly.
Okay.
Awful?
He'll make 45 million from the Cubs. He's been a disaster for them so far. Seems like he did ok to me.
Kimbrel is hardly a victim. How much did he turn down in the offseason.
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Paying $100 million for a guy that will be 32 next year with an injury history that has allowed him to throw 200 innings exactly once in his career (twice if he makes it the end of this season) seems like a pretty bad idea. There are certainly better options to spend that 25 million/year on.
He'll obviously get a bunch of money from someone this off-season but it's pretty likely that contract will be an albatross sooner rather than later.
Last edited by Carp; 09-06-2019 at 09:08 AM.
Small sample in a low-stress situation, but I thought he was a high price to pay for what appears to be a rental. It's the first time through for Allard so I wouldn't be surprised if he struggles a bit more as the book on him gets thicker. Like others, I don't know where he would fit in the Braves' long-term plans, but I think he'll stick around a few years as a back-of-the-rotation starter for somebody. Given where his fastball is topping out, his secondary pitches are what will determine how well he fares. Kyle Hendricks has made a similar skill set work for him.
jpx7 (09-06-2019)
That's all opinionated, Stras has lost velocity but he uses his off speed stuff to set up his fastball where in the past it used to be the other way around.
But it is a risk with the injuries he's had but the Nats dont have any in-house replacements so they probably gotta overpay him or risk losing him, and Rendon as well who is gonna get bank.
It's opinionated that that he's a 31 year old pitcher that has an extensive injury history?
He has had injuries but all pitchers get hurt, but letting him walk and replacing him with a cheaper/worse option isnt very smart.
I think it is fair to value Stras as a 3 to 3.5 win pitcher for the next 4 years. That is per year average. How you value that is up to you. I am also on the side of injuries worry me with him.
Coppy
I think the difference is he has added three mph to his fastball (now averaging 92.5), which let's it play average. He's added an above average cutter which maybe accounts for his struggles in AAA. He's gone away form his below average curve and he shows an average change for effect.
Throwing strikes, staying on corners, and avoiding barrels.
He's been more injured than the average pitcher, again having amassed only 1 season with at least 200 innings (his 185 innings this year represent the 2nd most innings he's ever pitched).
Letting a 31 year old pitcher walk and using that money in areas that are bigger need is absolutely a smart move. The Nats are already pushing the limits of the luxury tax. Not only is that money they could use on a more importance piece (Rendon) but they could use much of that money to, for instance, sign Grandal and a pitcher like Hamels or Quintana.
The thing I noticed about his performance in Gwinnett is that his GO/AO ratio went heavily GO in a hurry, which would follow from the addition of the cutter. His ratio is back up to where it characteristically was in the minors during his stint with the Rangers. Curious to see if that changes.
I think the increased velocity has helped, but it's still, as you say, going to be about location for him. You don't take the bats out of anyone's hands throwing in the low-90s unless you have some spectacular secondary stuff.
I was the low man around here on Allard for a long time, but I agree that shipping him out for a rental BP arm was not maximizing his value. His realistic ceiling is likely exactly as you described, and I figured that had more value than what the Braves extracted from him.
Quintana/Hamels replacing Stras and Grandal with Stras' money makes them worse. Are they keeping Rendon in your scenario too.
Same, i wasnt against moving him but for a rental RP seemed like a bad move.
for those who would like to refresh their memory, here is the thread discussion Martin for Allard
http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9439
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jpx7 (09-06-2019)
How is Grandal and one of Hamels/Quintana making them worse? Hamels and Quintana both are pitching at a 4 fWAR pace over 36 starts. Grandal is already at 4.4 WAR himself. Even considering some regression in 2020, I think you conservatively expect 6-7 WAR from Grandal and 1 of those 2 pitchers.
In this scenario, Rendon is a completely separate issue.
Pretty sure that entire thread can be summarized by, "I know Allard isn't very good, but he should have more value than a decent rental BP arm".
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