Around The Majors 2019

[clvclv]

There are reasons to be patient:

1) If you are too eager for a deal the other GM will sense it and exploit it.
2) Among the targeted players, some could get injured or lose form between now and the end of July. Let the selling teams bear that risk (see Jason Grilli).
3) Our precise needs could change over the next month. Injuries/loss of form, for example, could make it more important to get a lefty or righty for the pen.

Those kinds of considerations generally trump the benefit of getting the guy in a few weeks earlier.

Of course they can. Unfortunately the lack of a high-leverage reliever won't - and you can make a pretty legitimate argument that we could use one from each side. Seriously.

Let's see a show of hands from everyone who honestly feels comfortable with ANY OF Jackson, Minter, Swarzak, Newcomb, Webb, Dayton, Touki, Blevins, or Sobotka in the 8th or 9th inning of a game in late June - much less a game that means something.

They've been "getting it done" to an extent lately, but it's more often despite themselves than it is because they're good. You posted a thread talking about how "regression is coming" yourself - http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9292 for those who missed it.

You guys keep narrowing the discussion to Smith when he's not the only fish in the sea. The point is that if the package AA's currently offering for him isn't enough, move on to somebody else. Call DMGM and offer him Demeritte and Allard for Kennedy and Diekman and $15 million. Call Toronto and offer Wilson and Davidson for Giles. Call the Rangers and ask about Leclerc.

If you land one or two of those guys now, it seriously lessens the pressure to vastly overpay in 3 weeks because Jackson and Minter are still your best late-game options. If Smith or someone else is still available at that point and the ask is reasonable and doesn't include anyone from the list you posted previously, scoop them up then.

[Super]

1. Lack of experience.
2. His body of work to date.

A lot can change in a month though.

he's been outstanding this year.
i'm not sure how much "lack of experience" affects a guy. we shall see.

[nsacpi]

Of course they can. Unfortunately the lack of a high-leverage reliever won't - and you can make a pretty legitimate argument that we could use one from each side. Seriously.

Let's see a show of hands from everyone who honestly feels comfortable with ANY OF Jackson, Minter, Swarzak, Newcomb, Webb, Dayton, Touki, Blevins, or Sobotka in the 8th or 9th inning of a game in late June - much less a game that means something.

They've been "getting it done" to an extent lately, but it's more often despite themselves than it is because they're good. You posted a thread talking about how "regression is coming" yourself - http://www.chopcountry.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9292 for those who missed it.

You guys keep narrowing the discussion to Smith when he's not the only fish in the sea. The point is that if the package AA's currently offering for him isn't enough, move on to somebody else. Call DMGM and offer him Demeritte and Allard for Kennedy and Diekman and $15 million. Call Toronto and offer Wilson and Davidson for Giles. Call the Rangers and ask about Leclerc.

If you land one or two of those guys now, it seriously lessens the pressure to vastly overpay in 3 weeks because Jackson and Minter are still your best late-game options. If Smith or someone else is still available at that point and the ask is reasonable and doesn't include anyone from the list you posted previously, scoop them up then.

I think there is general agreement on the desirability of acquiring a reliever or two by the deadline. The comment you made that I and others have taken exception to is "I just wish AA would go on and get someone now." There are good reasons for him to take his time and wait until we are closer to the deadline. Patience grasshopper.

[clvclv]

I think there is general agreement on the desirability of acquiring a reliever or two by the deadline. The comment you made that I and others have taken exception to is "I just wish AA would go on and get someone now." There are good reasons for him to take his time and wait until we are closer to the deadline. Patience grasshopper.

The reasoning for making something happen now isn't completely just about what it does to the makeup of our pen - no one's disagreeing that there's plenty of time to make final additions. Adding a legitimate late-inning guy or two now likely pushes the Gnats and Mutts into being sellers early, making our path to winning the division easier. It also increases the chance that the Phillies are willing to overpay with what little is left in their system (more or less Bohm or Medina) if they want to try to stay in the race with us. Having a Giles/Kennedy/Leclerc now forces those three teams to make a decision now if they don't want us to run away and hide.

That gives you the next few weeks to decide if you still need to go out and try to add Smith or another piece to give you a better chance against the big boys.

[Southcack77]

The reasoning for making something happen now isn't completely just about what it does to the makeup of our pen - no one's disagreeing that there's plenty of time to make final additions. Adding a legitimate late-inning guy or two now likely pushes the Gnats and Mutts into being sellers early, making our path to winning the division easier. It also increases the chance that the Phillies are willing to overpay with what little is left in their system (more or less Bohm or Medina) if they want to try to stay in the race with us. Having a Giles/Kennedy/Leclerc now forces those three teams to make a decision now if they don't want us to run away and hide.

That gives you the next few weeks to decide if you still need to go out and try to add Smith or another piece to give you a better chance against the big boys.

The Braves moves in the relief market are not likely to have a significant effect on what the rest of the division does.

Their decisions to sell or not sell are going to based on their ability to contend for the wild card.

Every one of those three has made major bets on this season that would be difficult to run away from while hope remained for the WC.

Each of them has reason to believe that they have a puncher's chance if they get to postseason.

[nsacpi]

The reasoning for making something happen now isn't completely just about what it does to the makeup of our pen - no one's disagreeing that there's plenty of time to make final additions. Adding a legitimate late-inning guy or two now likely pushes the Gnats and Mutts into being sellers early, making our path to winning the division easier. It also increases the chance that the Phillies are willing to overpay with what little is left in their system (more or less Bohm or Medina) if they want to try to stay in the race with us. Having a Giles/Kennedy/Leclerc now forces those three teams to make a decision now if they don't want us to run away and hide.

That gives you the next few weeks to decide if you still need to go out and try to add Smith or another piece to give you a better chance against the big boys.

I think us making a move now would have virtually zero effect on what the fillies, gnats and Metropolitans decide to do...the first two will likely add at the deadline because they are in the thick of the wild card race...the Metropolitans might become sellers if they continue losing...but their decisions will not be affected by whether or not AA trades for a reliever in the next week or so

[BeanieAntics]

The similar valuation model is great in theory - just not so much in practice in an individual year. Some of the contenders are going to "overpay" for Smith and the other premium relievers, and if you're going to be completely inflexible based on your internal valuations you're going to be watching them on TV while you're on vacation. Nobody's saying keep going up that list until you get someone, but if you haven't been able to find a team willing to take 2-3 guys from the next tier by now you're not going to get much of an upgrade.

If a team isn't willing to accept a properly valuated offer (based off industry consensus) with maybe a small contender's premium and/or another team makes them an offer that goes above that valuation, then I'm perfectly happy to not have them. I think falling in love with guys and compromising on your valuations is a terrible idea (almost always). I think the relentless pursuit of value, as I call it, is the way to maximize the largest competitive window possible.

But I'm also one of those people who thinks that the parity that exists in playoff baseball makes it difficult to justify paying a steep price for short term solutions with the notion that the piece will greatly increase your chance at a world series. It will probably help your chances, sure, but I think how much it helps is mostly overstated. Teams like the Dodgers or Yankees usually have the resources to easily mitigate any losses from bad value rental trades, so you could make an argument that the small upgrade in WS odds is worth whatever they might give up to acquire it. But for a mid market team like the Braves, a deal like that could have serious ramifications down the line.

So we should send out fair value offers for all the relievers we may be interested in and if someone bites, then great. If not, I'm happy chugging along with our current 7% championship odds.

[Enscheff]

Despite what the playdoh eater trying to give dinner ideas thinks, the Giants aren't trading Smith right now for anything less than a clear overpay for 1 singular reason:

Closer to the deadline the number of serious buyers will be at a maximum, and the Giants will be able to get the highest return.

Anything else mentioned is pure ignorance about how the trade season generally works. We are, however, nearing the point where these buyers are starting to emerge, so I expect to see traction on these types of trades start to grab.

I do agree that the likely price for Smith is something the Braves should be willing to pay when the Giants decide it's time to deal. Very few contenders have the depth of non-elite prospects required to get an elite rental BP arm like Smith.

[BeanieAntics]

The reasoning for making something happen now isn't completely just about what it does to the makeup of our pen - no one's disagreeing that there's plenty of time to make final additions. Adding a legitimate late-inning guy or two now likely pushes the Gnats and Mutts into being sellers early, making our path to winning the division easier. It also increases the chance that the Phillies are willing to overpay with what little is left in their system (more or less Bohm or Medina) if they want to try to stay in the race with us. Having a Giles/Kennedy/Leclerc now forces those three teams to make a decision now if they don't want us to run away and hide.

That gives you the next few weeks to decide if you still need to go out and try to add Smith or another piece to give you a better chance against the big boys.

Us acquiring Will Smith (or whoever) will have absolutely zero effect on the Nationals and Mets deciding to sell. They are still firmly in the mix for the wild card and the Nationals' playoff odds are currently over 50%, higher than the Phillies. The Mets made a massive investment into this year and the odds of them selling off are miniscule.

Whatever they decide to do, the difference in the Braves acquiring a reliever in late June or late July isn't gonna move the needle for those teams.

[Super]

this entire "discussion" has been a gigantic waste of everybody's time.

[Enscheff]

The reasoning for making something happen now isn't completely just about what it does to the makeup of our pen - no one's disagreeing that there's plenty of time to make final additions. Adding a legitimate late-inning guy or two now likely pushes the Gnats and Mutts into being sellers early, making our path to winning the division easier. It also increases the chance that the Phillies are willing to overpay with what little is left in their system (more or less Bohm or Medina) if they want to try to stay in the race with us. Having a Giles/Kennedy/Leclerc now forces those three teams to make a decision now if they don't want us to run away and hide.

That gives you the next few weeks to decide if you still need to go out and try to add Smith or another piece to give you a better chance against the big boys.

The Braves moves in the relief market are not likely to have a significant effect on what the rest of the division does.

Their decisions to sell or not sell are going to based on their ability to contend for the wild card.

Every one of those three has made major bets on this season that would be difficult to run away from while hope remained for the WC.

Each of them has reason to believe that they have a puncher's chance if they get to postseason.

I think us making a move now would have virtually zero effect on what the fillies, gnats and Metropolitans decide to do...the first two will likely add at the deadline because they are in the thick of the wild card race...the Metropolitans might become sellers if they continue losing...but their decisions will not be affected by whether or not AA trades for a reliever in the next week or so

Us acquiring Will Smith (or whoever) will have absolutely zero effect on the Nationals and Mets deciding to sell. They are still firmly in the mix for the wild card and the Nationals' playoff odds are currently over 50%, higher than the Phillies. The Mets made a massive investment into this year and the odds of them selling off are miniscule.

Whatever they decide to do, the difference in the Braves acquiring a reliever in late June or late July isn't gonna move the needle for those teams.

Sorry, but 3 of the more intelligent posters replying with the exact same logical response to a moronic comment made me chuckle.

"Reasoning" indeed....LOL!!

Thanks guys!!

[BeanieAntics]

Despite what the playdoh eater trying to give dinner ideas thinks, the Giants aren't trading Smith right now for anything less than a clear overpay for 1 singular reason:

Closer to the deadline the number of serious buyers will be at a maximum, and the Giants will be able to get the highest return.

Anything else mentioned is pure ignorance about how the trade season generally works. We are, however, nearing the point where these buyers are starting to emerge, so I expect to see traction on these types of trades start to grab.

I do agree that the likely price for Smith is something the Braves should be willing to pay when the Giants decide it's time to deal.

I think its important to anticipate what that price should be. I'd be willing to pay a similar to price to the rental trades from last year that were outlined in the article you posted last week. Maybe a little more than the three smaller trades, but not as much as the Britton trade. One 45 FV guy and one to two 35-40s are about what I'd be willing to do.

If the Giants are looking for anything more than that, then I let another team pay that price and I start putting in offers elsewhere.

[nsacpi]

this entire "discussion" has been a gigantic waste of everybody's time.

haha...I kind of enjoyed it

btw on a slightly more serious note...I do think Smith is a great fit for us...better than the others...I'd like someone who we can have share the 8th and 9th innings with Jackson, with who gets which inning depending on matchups...and my perception is we are a little deeper in the pen on the right side which makes the case for acquiring a lefty slightly stronger...could change in the weeks ahead...but right now Smith is the ideal...but I don't think we should proceed from the idea we must have player X by a certain date...I have a feeling the bidding for Smith will be very strong

in looking at what I wrote above Hand is another lefty who would balance the pen in a similar way Smith would...but I would be surprised if the Indians were sellers

[Enscheff]

I think its important to anticipate what that price should be. I'd be willing to pay a similar to price to the rental trades from last year that were outlined in the article you posted last week. Maybe a little more than the three smaller trades, but not as much as the Britton trade. One 45 FV guy and one to two 35-40s are about what I'd be willing to do.

If the Giants are looking for anything more than that, then I let another team pay that price and I start putting in offers elsewhere.

Yeah, ncsacpi mentioned "a guy on at least 1 major Top 100 list".

That's a good 45 or a falling 50 as the centerpiece, plus 1-2 other fungible parts. I can get on board with that price depending on who's Top 100 list we are talking about, and when it was published.

Where I'd draw the line exactly...I'm not quite sure. According to FG: https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/...=atl&sort=-1,1

Contreras and above are obviously off limits. It starts to get iffy from me in the Gohara/Wilson/Muller/Wentz area (Lango isn't an option), and I would lean towards a no on any of those guys. Jackson and lower is a grab bag the Giants can pull from freely.

That attitude from a Braves fan likely means a package for Smith will have to include 1 guy from the iffy group as the centerpiece. It's up to the brains in the FO to decide which one of those pitchers is most expendable.

Selling low on Gohara seems like a bad idea, and Wilson has proven to be a MLB-caliber arm that is a steep price to pay for a rental BP arm. Muller is probably the sweet spot. To me, Wentz plus 2 other parts would be solid value for Smith.

[bravesfanMatt]

I heard that the signing of DK made the fish officially sellers. So that is one divisional rival down. Snag three more pieces and we win. Boom!!!

[bravesfanMatt]

Which one of wentz or muller is the mashed. I wanna say Muller could hit and has hit when he gets a chance to this year. Don’t make me go out and check on my own.

[clvclv]

this entire "discussion" has been a gigantic waste of everybody's time.

Yet you've had so many other pressing issues to attend to in your busy day you've found time to keep up with it?

[clvclv]

If a team isn't willing to accept a properly valuated offer (based off industry consensus) with maybe a small contender's premium and/or another team makes them an offer that goes above that valuation, then I'm perfectly happy to not have them. I think falling in love with guys and compromising on your valuations is a terrible idea (almost always). I think the relentless pursuit of value, as I call it, is the way to maximize the largest competitive window possible.

But I'm also one of those people who thinks that the parity that exists in playoff baseball makes it difficult to justify paying a steep price for short term solutions with the notion that the piece will greatly increase your chance at a world series. It will probably help your chances, sure, but I think how much it helps is mostly overstated. Teams like the Dodgers or Yankees usually have the resources to easily mitigate any losses from bad value rental trades, so you could make an argument that the small upgrade in WS odds is worth whatever they might give up to acquire it. But for a mid market team like the Braves, a deal like that could have serious ramifications down the line.

So we should send out fair value offers for all the relievers we may be interested in and if someone bites, then great. If not, I'm happy chugging along with our current 7% championship odds.

Which, again, was the whole point. If the Giants' current asking price for Smith is higher than you're comfortable with, you move on. Go back and find the single post where I mentioned offering anyone nsacpi mentioned were the players he didn't feel should be included in an offer for Smith. I've not once suggested an overpay.

What escapes me is the reason we should wait for the other potentially available options to be scooped up by other teams - particularly the ones chasing us in our own division - before acquiring whoever's left in 3 weeks. We're talking about fungible assets here.

Exactly how much worse off would we be if DMGM accepted the Allard and Demeritte offer for Kennedy, Diekman, and $15 million? Even if you had to add another small piece to make that happen, you've still got plenty of the same types of pieces to offer for Smith later in the process, plus you have control of Kennedy and Diekman for another run in 2020.

If Toronto would accept a couple of players from that pool now for Giles, should AA say "wait, I need to hold off for a couple weeks to make sure one of those guys doesn't make the difference in a Smith trade"?

If Smith is still out there in 3 weeks and the Giants haven't gotten a better offer than the secondary pieces AA still has left and is willing to offer at that point, you add him then.

[nsacpi]

Exactly how much worse off would we be if DMGM accepted the Allard and Demeritte offer for Kennedy, Diekman, and $15 million? Even if you had to add another small piece to make that happen, you've still got plenty of the same types of pieces to offer for Smith later in the process, plus you have control of Kennedy and Diekman for another run in 2020.

That's a reasonable trade for both teams. However, I don't think the timing is up to AA. It is largely up to the Royals. And I would add there is no compelling reason to do it now as opposed to a month from now. If anything there is a better case for doing it later.

[Super]

Yet you've had so many other pressing issues to attend to in your busy day you've found time to keep up with it?

the points you make are just so good, i have to read them.