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Thread: 2019 100 PA Check In: Josh Donaldson

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    2019 100 PA Check In: Josh Donaldson

    The Braves big FA splash just crossed the 100 PA mark, so it's time to see if they are getting their money's worth.

    Overall Slash Line:

    104 PAs, .261/.375/.477 (.852 OPS, .216 ISO), 127 wRC+, 0.6 WAR

    What's Not Real:

    The HR drought Donaldson had the first week or two of the season wasn't going to continue. His batted ball data suggested he was hitting the ball as hard as ever, and it was just a matter of time before the HRs came. Exactly as expected, a few of those hard hit balls cleared the wall, and his numbers regressed accordingly. The freak out by the fan base was unwarranted...as usual.

    Donaldson's .345 BABIP is a career high so far, and pretty obviously due for some regression. He doesn't possess any of the traits of a guy who can maintain a high BABIP (high LD%, sprays the ball around, fast, LHH), so we can expect the BABIP to regress to somewhere in the low .300s. That regression will be a drag on his overall line, but hopefully an improvement in his K rate can help compensate.

    What Is Real:

    Donaldson is exactly who we thought he is. He is hitting the ball more consistently hard than any Brave with an average FB/LD exit velocity of 100.3 mph, which is also good for #2 in MLB. He is walking at his typical 15.4% rate. His FBs are leaving the park at a rate of 22.2%, which makes sense for a guy hitting the ball so hard so consistently.

    The less exciting real parts about Donaldson's game are the parts that illustrate the fact he is declining as a player. The K rate has now been increasing for 3 straight seasons to his career high of 27.9% so far this year. His FB rate has been declining for 2 years now, and is currently 30.5%. Those FBs have turned into GBs, and the rate he hits them has been increasing for 3 years now, and is currently at a career high of 52.5%. Needless to say, this is not good news for a guy who's value largely lies in his ability to hit FBs with high exit velocity so they clear the OF wall.

    Moving Forward:

    As the third member of the "3 MVP candidates" triumvirate, Donaldson is performing well as he paces for 4+ wins, but the days of him being a true MVP candidate are likely behind him. The decline years of a peak talent 8 win player are still going to be very valuable though, and the Braves are enjoying one of those decline years for $23M...great value. Some of the Braves newfound team-wide plate discipline (11.4% BB rate is #2 in MLB) might partially be chalked up to his influence as well.

    The signs of decline are clearly present though. Higher Ks and less FBs is precisely how elite power hitters (non-Bonds category) fall off the table at the end of their career. I would be hesitant to sign JD past this season, and I certainly wouldn't want to be the team who gives him 3+ years and $50M+. I would like to see the Braves offer him a QO after this season if he finishes it healthy, and then let him walk away if he doesn't accept that 1 year $18M-$19M offer.

    For the rest of 2019 I expect to see JD be the embodiment of the "three true outcomes hitter"...a lot of BBs, Ks, and HRs. He probably should be swapped in the lineup with Acuna at this point, but who knows if it's worth rocking the boat.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 04-26-2019 at 12:06 PM.

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    This early in the season the K rate is the one I focus on because it stabilizes more quickly than some of the other hitting stats. Donaldson's numbers are consistent with his being a good hitter but also having some luck so far this year.

    The last few seasons the April K rate data have been pretty good at picking up mid career resurgences by some veteran hitters-Muk, Late Bloomer and Suzuki. McCann is my candidate this year for a mid/late career resurgence.

    Freeman's April K rate numbers this year point to a big season for him. Maybe a career year in what has already been a great career.

    Among the younger guys Acuna has seen a nice drop in his K rate.
    Last edited by nsacpi; 04-26-2019 at 12:29 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    This early in the season the K rate is the one I focus on because it stabilizes more quickly than some of the other hitting stats. Donaldson's numbers are consistent with his being a good hitter but also having some luck so far this year.

    The last few seasons the April K rate data have been pretty good at picking up mid career resurgences by some veteran hitters-Muk, Late Bloomer and Suzuki. McCann is my candidate this year for a mid/late career resurgence.

    Freeman's April K rate numbers this year point to a big season for him. Maybe a career year in what has already been a great career.

    Among the younger guys Acuna has seen a nice drop in his K rate.
    Correct. That's why exit velocities, K rates and BB rates are the only things you see mentioned as evidence in my "What Is Real" sections.

    Batted ball data can start to be considered as well around the 100 PA mark, but I feel like that's something a player can consciously change if they decide to work on it, so isn't as much of a true talent measure as it is an explanation of what's going on (Ender pulling the ball, JD not hitting LDs, things like that).

    Here is a good break down for understanding sample sizes for different stats (the things we can talk about as being "real" in bold):

    https://library.fangraphs.com/principles/sample-size/

    “Stabilization” Points for Offense Statistics:

    60 PA: Strikeout rate
    120 PA: Walk rate

    240 PA: HBP rate
    290 PA: Single rate
    1610 PA: XBH rate
    170 PA: HR rate
    910 AB: AVG
    460 PA: OBP
    320 AB: SLG
    160 AB: ISO
    80 BIP: GB rate
    80 BIP: FB rate

    600 BIP: LD rate
    50 FBs: HR per FB
    820 BIP: BABIP
    Last edited by Enscheff; 04-26-2019 at 01:13 PM.

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    The two guys whose K rates are throwing up red flags are Inciarte and Flowers.
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    Flowers has had several years with similar K rates. A lot of his value is tied into defense, and nobody is going to make a mistake signing him to a long term deal.

    Ender is just flat out struggling at the plate and doesn't know what in the world he is doing up there. We've also seen Ender go through 100 PA stretches where he Ks a lot (20%+) and pulls the ball too much (~50%).

    JD's K rate increasing for 3 years in a row to the point it's currently 8.5% higher than his career mark and 9%-10% higher than his peak years is much more troubling. It tells me that JD is about done as an impact player, and I don't want the Braves to commit much more to him after this season. Someone is going to make a $50M+ mistake on Donaldson after this season, and I don't want it to be the Braves. We have already seen folks around here suggest extending him, and I hope AA can see it's a bad idea.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 04-26-2019 at 01:03 PM.

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    So, basically Donaldson is now 2010 Dan Uggla offensively.

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    gotta hope for a 4+ win season from JD this year and run in the offseason.
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    Its interesting that it takes 7.5x longer for a player's line drive rate to stabilize than his GB or FB rate. I figured it would likely take a larger sample, but its interesting that it takes that much time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanieAntics View Post
    Its interesting that it takes 7.5x longer for a player's line drive rate to stabilize than his GB or FB rate. I figured it would likely take a larger sample, but its interesting that it takes that much time.
    It's a function of LD rate being ~20% with very small variations between hitters, while FB/GB rates can be as high as 60% with large variations between hitters.

    If everyone has a LD rate between 15% and 25%, it takes a lot more samples for it to "stabilize" than it does for FB rates that vary from 20% to 60%.

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    Will have to see where Segura lands after 100 PA.

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