Extending Albies

[Enscheff]

Now that Acuna is locked up, it stands to reason Albies could be next. Here is a breakdown of what he will potentially earn during the rest of his team control:

Albies is a potential star-level player, even better than Swanson. Davenport projects him to produce as follows from 2017-2022:

2017 (20): .269 .329 .392 (.721 OPS), 2.6 WAR (0.8-0.9 WAR rest of season)
2018 (21): .280 .340 .404 (.744 OPS), 26 SBs, 3.2 WAR
2019 (22): .283 .344 .408 (.752 OPS), 27 SBs, 3.5 WAR
2020 (23): .287 .351 .424 (.775 OPS), 25 SBs, 3.9 WAR
2021 (24): .288 .358 .428 (.786 OPS), 25 SBs, 4.2 WAR
2022 (25): .289 .355 .429 (.784 OPS), 23 SBs, 4.0 WAR

We can safely project another couple ~4 WAR seasons in 2023/2024 when Albies is 26/27 years old and entering his peak years. His speed and defense will begin to decline at that age, but power tends to tick up to compensate.

Promoting him now gives the Braves the following years of control and projected salaries (based off Dee Gordon's figures plus inflation):

2017 (pre-arb): $0.2M
2018 (pre-arb): $0.5M
2019 (pre-arb): $0.5M
2020 (pre-arb): $0.5M
2021 (arb 1): $3M
2022 (arb 2): $5M
2023 (arb 3): $9M

Total: $18.7M
WAR produced: 23.7
Surplus value: $218.3M

So the Braves are looking at something like $15M-$20M to lock him up through his control years and age 26, and then buying 1-2 FA years for around $12M each...and apparently super cheap options after that since that's the value voodoo magic AA is able to work on young stars.