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Thread: Newk to AAA, Viz to the DL

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    The Braves have done well with their second round picks over the years:

    2018 Jenista
    2017 Waters
    2016 Wentz, Muller
    2015 Riley, Herbert
    2014 Fulenchek
    2013 Caratini
    2012 Wood
    2011 Ahmed
    2010 Cunningham, Simmons
    2009 none
    2008 Stovall, Spruill
    2007 Freeman

    I'd be willing to wait until the draft to sign Kimbrel.
    That is incredible.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    The Braves have done well with their second round picks over the years:

    2018 Jenista
    2017 Waters
    2016 Wentz, Muller
    2015 Riley, Herbert
    2014 Fulenchek
    2013 Caratini
    2012 Wood
    2011 Ahmed
    2010 Cunningham, Simmons
    2009 none
    2008 Stovall, Spruill
    2007 Freeman

    I'd be willing to wait until the draft to sign Kimbrel.
    Pretty good hit rate, but having an extra 1st makes up for the loss. I'm more concerned about the draft pool than the pick honestly.

    Regardless, we need a closer. I really doubt Kimbrel will still be available in June, and a good closer will likely cost at least a 45 FV prospect come July. It's also unlikely said closer will be as good as CK. So you're going to give up a prospect at least as valuable anyways in a trade for likely a lesser pitcher.

    I'd rather just sign CK now and get the added value of having him for 1.5 extra months, assuming he would even be available in June.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Pretty good hit rate, but having an extra 1st makes up for the loss. I'm more concerned about the draft pool than the pick honestly.

    Regardless, we need a closer. I really doubt Kimbrel will still be available in June, and a good closer will likely cost at least a 45 FV prospect come July. It's also unlikely said closer will be as good as CK. So you're going to give up a prospect at least as valuable anyways in a trade for likely a lesser pitcher.

    I'd rather just sign CK now and get the added value of having him for 1.5 extra months, assuming he would even be available in June.
    it should be kept in mind that a disproportionate part of the value of a closer to a contending team is derived in the post season...between now and the draft kimbrel would pitch 10-15 innings if we signed him tomorrow

    having an extra first has no bearing on the value of that second round pick, regardless of what you think that value might be
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    it should be kept in mind that a disproportionate part of the value of a closer to a contending team is derived in the post season...between now and the draft kimbrel would pitch 10-15 innings if we signed him tomorrow

    having an extra first has no bearing on the value of that second round pick, regardless of what you think that value might be
    And what of the cost of acquiring a closer at the deadline, which appears fairly likely at this point in time?

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    it's not really an "extra" first if they didn't have the first last year.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    And what of the cost of acquiring a closer at the deadline, which appears fairly likely at this point in time?
    I agree that the contenders premium is an issue to consider...AA has to carefully evaluate his chances of landing Kimbrel if he waits until the draft...I am not arguing there is no risk or downside associated with this approach

    I might add that the alternative to Kimbrel is not necessarily another closer...we can shore up the pen without going after a big name closer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    And what of the cost of acquiring a closer at the deadline, which appears fairly likely at this point in time?
    i am, however, on board now because of this. someone is going to give it to him, especially as the season moves and pitchers get hurt.
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I agree that the contenders premium is an issue to consider...AA has to carefully evaluate his chances of landing Kimbrel if he waits until the draft...I am not arguing there is no risk or downside associated with this approach

    I might add that the alternative to Kimbrel is not necessarily another closer...we can shore up the pen without going after a big name closer
    This is true, and would've been my preferred method. We've seen several quality arms sign 1 and 2 year deals in the $3M - $6M per year range. At this point though I don't know who all is left that would be an upgrade

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    Quote Originally Posted by Freshmaker View Post
    This is true, and would've been my preferred method. We've seen several quality arms sign 1 and 2 year deals in the $3M - $6M per year range. At this point though I don't know who all is left that would be an upgrade
    I'm talking about the trade market...guys like Givens of the Orioles and Watson and Smith with the Giants
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    Freeman, Simmons and Wood were all later than 60
    I'll go ahead and draw my conclusions from the data on all 2nd picks rather than the small sample that backs up the counter point.

    The 60th pick is worth less than $5M, and that cost must be factored into any deal with Kimbrel.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/35/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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    Venters to the IL with a “calf strain.” Braces are saying a corresponding move to take place tomorrow. Fingers crossed it’s Kimbrel 😬

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    I'll go ahead and draw my conclusions from the data on all 2nd picks rather than the small sample that backs up the counter point.

    The 60th pick is worth less than $5M, and that cost must be factored into any deal with Kimbrel.
    it's an interesting question whether there are team specific effects reflecting drafting skill that is stable over time
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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    I'm talking about the trade market...guys like Givens of the Orioles and Watson and Smith with the Giants
    Ah gotcha ok. I'm less interested in that route since those guys all cost prospects AND money, but since Smith is a FA after this season he might available at a reasonable cost. Watson has a $2.5M player option in 2020 with a $500K buyout and Givens is controllable for 2 more years but is arby eligible

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    So we’ve lost Viz and Venters in the last 24 hours? I would absolutely have Kimbrel on speed dial right now. Our window is open for a long time so I wouldn’t sweat the 2nd round pick right now bc we are in contention for the playoffs.

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    Quote Originally Posted by nsacpi View Post
    it's an interesting question whether there are team specific effects reflecting drafting skill that is stable over time
    If so I would expect the Braves to have done a lot better with their 1st round picks over that same timeframe than they have.

    Or are you suggesting there is some team specific effect that makes the Braves above average in the 2nd round specifically?

    My guess is the handful of data points you listed is nothing but small sample noise, and I will continue to base my conclusions on the full data set that suggests the 60th pick in the draft is worth less than $5M.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 04-15-2019 at 05:04 PM.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/35/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    If so I would expect the Braves to have done a lot better with their 1st round picks over that same timeframe than they have.

    Or are you suggesting there is some team specific effect that makes the Braves above average in the 2nd round specifically?

    My guess is the handful of data points you listed is nothing but small sample noise, and I will continue to base my conclusions on the full data set that suggests the 60th pick in the draft is worth less than $5M.
    no I'm not suggesting the braves are bad drafters in one round and good in another...that's silly...but it is plausible there is such a thing as drafting skill that might make a draft pick more valuable in the hands of some front offices

    to evaluate for something like that you would have to control for draft position which especially matters in the first round...and you need to look at whether this skill has some stability across different time periods...eg do the teams who outperform say in the first half of a decade also tend to outperform in the second half...I'm surprised no one has published a study of this sort
    Last edited by nsacpi; 04-15-2019 at 05:31 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by tululush View Post
    Venters to the IL with a “calf strain.” Braces are saying a corresponding move to take place tomorrow. Fingers crossed it’s Kimbrel 
    Doubtful. Even if we signed Kimbrel tonight, it'd likely be a couple weeks before he's ready. This move shouldn't factor into a CK decision. I figure it to be Shane Carle since his 10 days will be up.
    Last edited by Carp; 04-15-2019 at 05:56 PM.

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    Viz just had shoulder surgery, done for the year.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/35/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Viz just had shoulder surgery, done for the year.
    Good to see Atlanta was proactive for BP arms in the offseason.
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