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Thread: Which pitchers do you see in the rotation long term?

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    Which pitchers do you see in the rotation long term?

    I was reading through last night's game thread after I left it, and I know there was talk about which young pitchers might be used to bolster our pen. This leads me to wonder who you think will eventually stick in the rotation, and how you project them. Also who has a productive future in the pen? Here are my thoughts.


    First of all with the experienced guys. I think we know that Julio is not a long term part of the Braves plans, but he's consistent enough he's going to have to be pushed out. He's in the rotation or now. Gausman is solid and I see him staying in the rotation. I think he'll stay in the rotation until he hits free agency and then may not be re-signed after 2020. Folty is obviously in the rotation if healthy. For now he's our ace. His health and development of the younger guys will determine his long term future.

    For Max Fried there is a lot of evidence that he has turned the corner. I want to see more starts, but I really like what he's shown. His control looks good, and he has excellent stuff. I see no reason why he's not a top half of the rotation starter.

    Mike Soroka clearly has a future in the rotation if he's healthy. I do have some concerns about stress on his arm, but that is a universal concern among pitchers. If healthy, he'll be good.

    I have mixed feelings about Newcomb. He is wild, and has a hard time pitching efficiently and can be tough on a bullpen. He has gotten good results though. He is good enough to be a big league starter, but he may end up in the pen considering our pitching depth. Personally I think he probably ends up in the bullpen.

    I really like Touki Toussaint. Personally I see him as a quality starter. He has very good stuff and decent command. I've heard some mention they see him in the bullpen. To me that may happen short term with our crowded rotation, but I think long term he's too valuable as a starter. That being said if he doesn't stick in the rotation this year I absolutely see him as temporary bullpen help in the second half.

    I don't know how to project Gohara. If he was healthy, he'd be my favorite but shoulder problems really worry me. He has ace stuff, but I fear there is high chance his career could get derailed.

    To me Wright's stuff looked ok, but I wasn't that impressed. He needs more time to develop. I won't give up on him as starting pitcher yet, but I don't see him as a TOR guy, and I don't see him back in the rotation this year unless there are a lot of injuries. Later in the year maybe he could bolster the pen temporarily.


    I would say let Bryce Wilson continue to develop before making a decision. The same goes with Ian Anderson. They may have potential, but I don't think they have an impact this year except maybe spot starts if needed.

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    Talking strictly about the pitchers who are currently "ready"...

    The guys with BP risk are Newk, Touki, Fried, Wilson, and Gohara. This risk stems from control, 3rd pitch quality, and/or durability concerns. I think they all end up in the BP, though all but Gohara seem poised to become multi-inning guys.

    The guys who will most likely stick as SPs are Folty, Gaus, Soroka, Wright and probably Anderson. Allard isn't good enough to be a MLB contributor long term.

    The Braves seem uniquely suited to pairing a RHP with a LHP to cover 7-8 innings while never allowing a pitcher to face the order a 3rd time. I would like to see them leverage these good-not-great arms that can face 9-18 batters in a new way.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/35/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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    They might be relievers, but I really feel that Fried and Toukinhave a chance to be quality starters. I guess weíll see how it shakes out.

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    Iím not sure what else Fried could do to prove he is a starter. I think the only thing that makes him end up in the pen is durability.

    Wilson is so young. I feel he has a MLB future no matter what.

    Touki is up and down, but no doubt has flashed starter potential. Time will tell.

    Newk needs traded before his value is gone. A guy that walks that many canít work in the bullpen either.

    Allard. Maybe he can be a #5 if he has perfect control. Hopefully for some other team.

    Has Gohora even pitched this year?? I like the guy, but at some point...you actually have to pitch. Iím afraid heís a bust.

    Donít sleep on Weigel...I feel he could be in the mix by years end.

    Soroka if healthy will be in the rotation.

    Wright will figure it out.

    Julio will have a good year , but they wonít be picking up that option next year. Gausman isnít a long term piece either (gone after next year).

    I still want to see Folty pitch. Iím not convinced his arm problems are behind him.

    Plenty of good arms in the next batch. Should be one or two of those guys that become at least a #3.

    End of year rotation (without a trade):
    Folty, Gausman, Soroka, Fried, Julio

    If any Heath issues pop up, Wright, Touki and Wilson will be in the mix (which ever is pitching better). These guys will most likely be in the bull pen also. The bullpen will be fixed at some point, but I worry it might be too late by the time it happens.

    Next year we should have one of the deepest rotations in baseball. They need to make a trade to clear some of these arms. I donít want Pache or Waters in it though. Im ok if they trade Riley.

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    I think you leave Wright and Touki as starters. I would transition Newk and wilson tomorrow to the Pen. They are going very slow with Weigel. I assume he is a pen guy now too.

    I am not sure if. Biddle has options but he needs a ten day break and bring up Clouse to be the next disaster.
    Coppy

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    I wouldn't give up on Newk yet. He's got some issues, that's for sure, but over his 276 innings in the bigs he's been just about average, 97 ERA- 101 FIP- but if your number 5 starter is a league average pitcher who gives you 5-6 innings of average numbers, you take that. I don't think Newcomb is a star, I think that ship sailed. But he could easily be a left handed Teheran which has value.
    AJ does all the other things just as well if not better than Mac - zbhargrove

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    Quote Originally Posted by zitothebrave View Post
    I wouldn't give up on Newk yet. He's got some issues, that's for sure, but over his 276 innings in the bigs he's been just about average, 97 ERA- 101 FIP- but if your number 5 starter is a league average pitcher who gives you 5-6 innings of average numbers, you take that. I don't think Newcomb is a star, I think that ship sailed. But he could easily be a left handed Teheran which has value.
    The Braves look to have multiple guys who can be league average in the fifth starter spot. It makes sense to take the guy who has the stuff to get hitters out, but has demonstrated an inability to be a consistent starter over a relevant sample size, and try him in a role where he could potentially be above average. Especially given that the team has a dire need for bullpen help.

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    after soroka comes close-ish to his innings limit, do you consider moving him to the pen for the rest of the season? would that wear on his arm a lot, too?
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    Quote Originally Posted by zitothebrave View Post
    I wouldn't give up on Newk yet. He's got some issues, that's for sure, but over his 276 innings in the bigs he's been just about average, 97 ERA- 101 FIP- but if your number 5 starter is a league average pitcher who gives you 5-6 innings of average numbers, you take that. I don't think Newcomb is a star, I think that ship sailed. But he could easily be a left handed Teheran which has value.
    seeing if he can pitch in the pen for this season isn't giving up on him.
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    Soroka, Folty, Fried are main stays providing health, imo. Gaus is for now, but he'll be gone after the 2020 season. Julion is likely gone after this season. So that leaves 2 spots to fill. I'll rank them as such:



    1. Newk - I have him here because he has the most experience among all other options and has been roughly league average with that experience He'll get another turn to prove his worth and I think he'll get back on track to at least being the frustrating 1.5-2 WAR pitcher we've become accustomed to. Whether he can take that next step to be a mid rotation starter (that I think he can be) is still TBD.

    2. Touki Touissaint - he has the momentum at this time after his dominant performance in relief of Newk. One of the highest upside arms in the system and has some experience starting in the majors from last season. I still worry about his durability.

    3. Kyle Wright - I thought he was going to put a strangle hold on a rotation spot after his dominant spring, but flopped in his 1st real chance to start this season. Still his overall stuff give him a great chance at locking down a rotation spot.

    4. Gohara - it may seem odd I am putting him here over others considering how little he's pitched over the last year plus, but I think he's the highest upside arm we have in either the majors or minors. Gotta get healthy though.

    5. Bryse Wilson - I'd like to put him higher because he has better command than pretty much every pitcher above him on this list and he is fearless on the mound with the way he attacks hitters, which I love. But his stuff is clearly behind all of the guys above him, so here he stays.... for now.

    6. Ian Anderson - if he isn't traded, we'll get to see him this year at some point. But as I've yet to see him pitch, I'll give the other guys the edge.

    7. Muller/Weigel - nice upside from both. We'll see how they do this year. Don't suspect either one will see significant time in the majors in 2019. May be a Sept call up for Weigel, but I doubt Muller gets added to the 40 man this year.

    Edit: Forgot to add Allard. I haven't completely given up on him, I'm just not sure what to make of him. He looked really bad in the cup of tea he had in the majors last year. I'd put him 7th right now below Anderson. Maybe we'll get a better reading on him in 2019.
    Last edited by Carp; 04-18-2019 at 09:24 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    Soroka, Folty, Fried are main stays providing health, imo. Gaus is for now, but he'll be gone after the 2020 season. Julion is likely gone after this season. So that leaves 2 spots to fill. I'll rank them as such:
    soroka won't be able to have a full work load tho.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    soroka won't be able to have a full work load tho.
    May be not this year, though you could always have him skip starts when we have days off to help lessen the load. But over the long term, he should be a mainstay.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Super View Post
    after soroka comes close-ish to his innings limit, do you consider moving him to the pen for the rest of the season? would that wear on his arm a lot, too?
    Thatís the typical plan for guys on an innings limit.

    The hope is that Wright or Touki will be ready by then, or the Braves go out and get a rental arm.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Thatís the typical plan for guys on an innings limit.

    The hope is that Wright or Touki will be ready by then, or the Braves go out and get a rental arm.
    Mad bum

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    I believe Soroka Fried and Touki will all be on inning restrictions this year. I would expect to see more of the 6 man rotation this year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Mad bum
    Could be. I'm hoping they can can aim a little higher if reinforcements are needed though.
    I think he (Teheran) finishes with a FIP ~3.3. -CrazyTrain 3/35/2019

    Gausman had a bad walk ratio for us -CrazyTrain 11/20/2018
    BB/9 with Braves: 2.72

    Fried, Newk and a couple other guys for Bumgarner and give him a pay day for 6ish years -CrazyTrain 10/15/18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    May be not this year, though you could always have him skip starts when we have days off to help lessen the load. But over the long term, he should be a mainstay.
    oh for sure, i'm really hoping he'll be there long term.
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    Quote Originally Posted by thewupk View Post
    Mad bum
    But with Fried in the rotation already, how would we trade for him?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carp View Post
    But with Fried in the rotation already, how would we trade for him?
    I'm sure FF will find a way

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    Kinda all depends on what you're considering to be "long-term".

    I know it's not popular, but I could see AA approaching Folty's and/or Gausman's reps with 3 or 4 year extension offers. Maybe something a year or so longer replacing their final year(s) of current control. 5 years for Folty (if signed now would take him through 2024 and age 32. 4 years for Gausman (signed now as well) would take him through 2023 at the same age. Have we really gotten so far that that's considered so old that they'll be declining that sharply at that point? Of all the arms we have, aren't those two of the ones (along with Soroka) that you feel will produce solidly enough to at least count on as long as they're healthy? I wouldn't expect either to take something like that, but given the uncertainties in today's market who knows? The third-most similar Pitcher on Gausman's B-Ref page through age 27 is Eovaldi. Gausman happens to be the sixth-most similar Pitcher on Folty's page through age 26. If you could get one (or even both) on similar deals to Eovaldi's, would that really strike anyone as an overly bad investment? I personally feel both those guys are better than Eovaldi. With Julio, O'Day, and Vizcaino coming off the books following 2019, it's not like it would be terribly tough to fit that type of contract in, especially considering the continuity it would give you at the top. We HOPE the younger arms are going to work out, but having at least one of those guys locked up that you feel confident is going to be no worse than your #3 over that period couldn't hurt.

    If you could get those two at the top through 2023 and keep Soroka healthy, I think that takes care of 4 rotation spots over that period because I agree with those who think Fried might just have turned the corner as well. That leaves that last spot for Wright/Anderson and everyone else to battle for - or an inexpensive veteran that slips through the cracks like Gio did this winter (if needed). I would go to Touki and ask him to close. He has the stuff and mentality to be THE guy out there for that entire period and helps keep costs and commitments down. I'd also shift Wilson to the pen to be used like a Hader/Archie Bradley type that gives you 2 innings 2-3 times a week and get away from having EVERYBODY in the pen being strictly one inning options. I think Parsons could give you another guy like that as well. With the 3-hitter minimum rule coming in, I think having a couple guys like that could turn out to be pretty valuable. Maybe even ask Newk and Gohara to turn into that type of weapon so that they could just go after everyone they see as hard as they can one time through the order.
    Waters is intersting too. Would prefer a guy that projects to more power though.

    If they don't make additions they can expect the same 3-5 win improvement they saw last year. That makes the Braves a 75-78 win team.

    The FO that needlessly promoted him early knew what they were doing and are paid to do this. We aren't, so we can't know more than them. Correction....they used to be paid to do this...

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