Some Basic Math on Bullpen Management and Thoughts on One of Fredi's 2013 Decisions

[nsacpi]

The thread on Fredi nominated for manager of the year inspired me to do some basic math on bullpen usage the past three seasons. I generally think Fredi is a good manager but I'm going to nit-pick a bit with respect to one of his choices when it came to bullpen management.

I'm going to use data on relief pitcher appearances. If someone prefers innings pitched by relievers feel free to supplement.

By my count, Braves relievers appeared in 475 games in 2013, 470 games in 2012 and 510 games in 2011.

Assuming you have seven relief slots (which can obviously be filled by more than one player over a full season), that works out to 68 appearances per bullpen slot in 2013, 67 in 2012, and 73 in 2011.

Now obviously these are not exact because there are times the team might carry more or fewer than 7 relievers (especially when the rosters expand in September), but it gives you a basic idea.

My view of the ideal is that you want to distribute the load as evenly as possible up until fairly late in the season when you might have to ride the guys who are pitching well harder. That works out to 70 or so appearances per pen member (or slot). Obviously, there should be some common sense variances. Your long relief guys will have fewer appearances but more innings. And maybe your very best relievers a little more than the others (I'm thinking here your top 3 guys in the 70-75 game range and your lesser guys 60-65).

This all presumes that your starters make it possible. In 2011 the starters did not pitch well, especially down the stretch, and we were in a lot of extra inning games, which led to some very high appearances numbers for Kimbrel (79), Venters (85) and EOF (78). I think we all agree we should avoid that kind of usage if at all possible.

The way the game has evolved I think it is important that the manager have confidence in at least 6 of the guys out in the pen. Otherwise, you are going to have excessive usage of the ones he does have confidence in. The second point I would stress (and no manager will ever come out and put it so indelicately) is that you need someone who is the "sacrificial lamb" out there in the pen. Someone you ride hard at particular points in the season, who you don't care whether he is still pitching or not in September and October. Sacrificial lamb is the right term because his role is to ensure the more valuable arms are still healthy come September and October.

I'll close by saying that this past season Fredi chose the wrong guy to be the sacrificial lamb. Cory Gearrin pitched 30 out of our first 54 games. In other words, through the first third of the season he was on a pace to appear in 90 games. He started breaking down in June and went on the DL with shoulder tendinitis in early July. He did not return to pitch in either the majors or minors.

Gearrin is not the greatest pitcher out there. But he is a very effective groundball pitcher against right handed hitters. I would have loved to have him available to pitch to guys like Puig, Hanley Ramirez and Uribe. This is not just ex post wisdom on my part. I made the point during the weeks when Fredi was overusing him that I would hate to see him not available when the games really matter.

Who should have been the sacrificial lamb. I would say Anthony Varvaro should have been the guy. During those first 54 games when Gearrin was used 30 times, Varvaro made 21 appearances, though to be fair he was used more often in a multi-inning role. As it turned out, Varvaro stayed healthy and was left off the post-season roster.

Am I nitpicking in focusing on these two fairly obscure relief pitchers. Maybe. But I'm convinced that a manager has to have an idea in April and May of which pitchers he wants healthy and effective come September and October, and which ones he is willing to sacrifice. Many things contributed to our losing to the Dodgers. The little things really do add up and make a difference. Enough so that we should be obsessive about things like who is being overworked in April and May.

[Braves1976]

I agree with you totally on Gearrin, but most will just look at the numbers overall (which were largely a result of the overuse). In other words, they will say he was just not doing his job even before hand. Plus the thing with Gearrin is that we were able to track that he was being warmed up every day even in games he never pitched. It was probably the closest extreme to what Linebrink talked about leading to his ineffective pitching and eventually injury (an injury that forced his retirement after that season).

[50PoundHead]

Gearrin may have been overused, but I've always thought he was going to turn into a pumpkin at some point. The big problem the Braves continue to have is that the starters aren't going deep enough into games. I would be curious to see how many blow-outs (in either direction) the Braves had this year. My ever-fading memory skills are suspect, but it seems the Braves played a ton of close games this past year and Fredi basically tried to win every one of them. Of course, you try to win, but at some point, you have to take the long view and I think if Fredi has a weakness, it's that he discounts the long view for the short term.

The use and then non-use of Varvaro is puzzling to me. He's basically Manny Acosta with better control and a second pitch, but he just disappeared late in the season.

[nsacpi]

Of course, you try to win, but at some point, you have to take the long view and I think if Fredi has a weakness, it's that he discounts the long view for the short term.

This is basically the issue. Gearrin was run into the ground in April and May. And there was more of this in the second half, which is less excusable because we had a large lead by then. Fredi goes with the hot hand in the pen to the point where that guy's effectiveness is undermined. Examples, David Carpenter pitched 17 games in August, Luis Avilan pitched in 15 games in August. I know sometimes the pen was short-handed, but by August it was clear we were going to be in the playoffs and Carpenter and Avilan would be key guys in the post-season. There is just a lack of foresight in how he overused some of those guys.

Meanwhile, Varvaro got just 8 games in August. A little foresight and planning would have resulted in shifting a couple games each from Carpenter and Avilan to Varvaro during that month.

What happened in August was we were in a bunch of games with relatively small leads in the late innings. Walden was out part of the month. So Kimbrel, Carpenter and Avilan carried a very heavy load that month. This is a case where sticking to assigned roles in the pen can hurt your team. As the month wore on it should have been clear that some of that load needed to be shifted to the rest of the pen even if it meant departing from their usual roles.

[50PoundHead]

This is basically the issue. Gearrin was run into the ground in April and May. And there was more of this in the second half, which is less excusable because we had a large lead by then. Fredi goes with the hot hand in the pen to the point where that guy's effectiveness is undermined. Examples, David Carpenter pitched 17 games in August, Luis Avilan pitched in 15 games in August. I know sometimes the pen was short-handed, but by August it was clear we were going to be in the playoffs and Carpenter and Avilan would be key guys in the post-season. There is just a lack of foresight in how he overused some of those guys.

Meanwhile, Varvaro got just 8 games in August. A little foresight and planning would have resulted in shifting a couple games each from Carpenter and Avilan to Varvaro during that month.

What happened in August was we were in a bunch of games with relatively small leads in the late innings. Walden was out part of the month. So Kimbrel, Carpenter and Avilan carried a very heavy load that month. This is a case where sticking to assigned roles in the pen can hurt your team. As the month wore on it should have been clear that some of that load needed to be shifted to the rest of the pen even if it meant departing from their usual roles.

That's the crux of my point. Fredi wanted to put the division away (which in fairness, was always Cox's SOP as well) and rest everyone afterwards. Sometimes you just have to go off pattern and Fredi didn't. I don't know what goes on in the locker room, but I wonder if there's something about Varvaro that rubs Fredi the wrong way. All conjecture on my part because I think Varvaro has been a solid guy at the back of the pen.

[nsacpi]

Varvaro's role seems to have been to pitch when the team was behind. I think Fredi was a bit too rigid in sticking to this. Varvaro's role should have been expanded to include pitching in some high leverage situations when the high-leverage guys needed a break.