Many of the more predictive stats start to stabilize around the 100 PA mark, and Freddie just crossed that mark for 2019 last night. Here's a look at how he's performing and what we can expect moving forward.
Overall Slash Line:
102 PAs, .310/.431/.464 (.895 OPS, .155 ISO), 140 wRC+, 0.7 WAR
What's Not Real:
The .381 BABIP is obviously a little high, but Freeman is a hitter who can sustain a ~.340 mark, and he has posted 2 full seasons of .370, so the regression shouldn't be devastating by any means.
That un-Freeman-like .155 ISO is being caused by his 9.1% HR/FB rate, which is much lower than the consistent ~15% mark he typically produces. His average LD/FB exit velocity is 94.5 mph and is right in line with career norms, so I fully expect more HRs to start clearing the fence soon.
Regression suggests the ISO will creep up as the HR/FB regresses upwards to ~15%, and the BA will creep down as the BABIP regresses to around ~.340. The end result is what we always expect from Freeman...a .900 OPS in the middle of the lineup for 150+ games.
What Is Real:
While we are pretty used to seeing a K rate that's 20% or better from Freeman, this year he is posting his highest BB rate of 16.7% despite being protected in the lineup by Acuna (almost like lineup protection is a myth...). He has done this by still attacking strikes (79.1% Z-Swing% in 2019 vs 80.9% career), but laying off even more pitches out of the zone (26.1% O-Swing% in 2019 vs 32.7% for his career). Freeman was already one of the most selective hitters in the game, and his 2019 plate discipline stats suggest he has kicked it up a notch to nearly peak Votto level.
We are also seeing him appear to make a little more of a concerted effort to hit the ball the other way against the shift (35.4% Oppo% in 2019 vs 26.3% career), which could be a sign he can sustain a BABIP a little higher than his typical ~.340 value.
Moving Forward:
Freeman is holding up his end of the "3 MVP Candidates" chatter by pacing towards another 5+ WAR season (though he still isn't being rested at all). We are seeing him improve how experienced elite hitters typically improve in the plate discipline area as they age through their 20s. He doesn't pull the ball enough to be an elite power hitter, so we have likely seen his peak HR total of 34 in 2016, but it's just a matter of time before that FB/LD exit velocity starts translating into a few more HRs.
An MVP season from Freeman happens when he manages to pair a .370 BABIP with a ~20% HR/FB rate for a full season to go along with this (hopefully) new 16% walk rate. That's essentially his 6.1 WAR 2016 plus a bunch more walks that would have resulted in an OPS of 1.000+ and 7+ WAR.
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