Results 1 to 4 of 4

Thread: 2019 100 PA Check In: Ronald Acuna Jr

  1. #1
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts

    2019 100 PA Check In: Ronald Acuna Jr

    The Franchise just crossed 100 PAs for 2019 last night, so let's see what other superlatives we can say about him.

    Overall Slash Line:

    103 PAs, .301/.420/.566 (.986 OPS, .265 ISO), 157 wRC+, 1.2 WAR

    What's Not Real:

    There are very few holes that can be poked in Acuna's 2019 numbers, and the ones that can are relatively minor...

    First up is the HR/FB rate of 27.3%. Acuna certainly hits the ball hard, but not "lead MLB in HR/FB rate hard". He had an average FB/LD exit velocity of 95.3 last year, and that has dropped to 92.2 this year. He still has the 2 hardest hit balls by a Brave in 2019 (114.3 and 112.6), and 4 of the 5 110+ mph batted balls all year for the team, so I would chalk the lower average exit velocity up to inconsistencies of a young player rather than any sign of anything truly worrisome. So while the HR/FB rate will likely drop into the range of the lower 20s, it won't be something that tanks his ISO.

    Secondly, the .352 BABIP is a little high based on Acuna being a ~20% LD hitter. My projection system pegged him at around a .313 mark coming into this year (.353 for Freeman for reference), but like the HR/FB rate, this isn't something that is a big red flag due for major regression that will tank his line. A .352 mark is probably within the error bars of his expected BABIP values for 600+ PAs.

    What Is Real:

    In short, everything else about the .986 OPS is real...from a 21 year old. Acuna hits the ball hard, and he is making improvements faster than any young player I've ever watched closely.

    Case in point: the 14.6% BB rate for 2019. We have seen Acuna improve his plate discipline almost on a weekly basis since ST of 2018, almost to the point now where he seems to be a little too passive and is taking too many hittable pitches he could probably do damage on, but that's just something an elite young player has to figure out.

    The good news is the improving BB rate looks legit, as we can see a saw toothed 15-day BB rate that is clearly trending up:

    https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.asp...15&dStatArray=

    We are also seeing Acuna start to use the whole field a little more (20.1% Opp% in 2018 vs 26.7% in 2019). That isn't something you typically want to see out of power hitters, but it is a reason to believe a little more in his .352 BABIP being sustainable. Going the other way more to increase the BABIP will sacrifice some power, but I think these are the types of adjustments we can expect from a young elite talent as he tries to figure out exactly the type of hitter he is going to be.

    Moving Forward:

    Like Freeman, Acuna is holding up his end of the "3 MVP candidates" chatter while (mostly legitimately) pacing for 8+ WAR. After seeing him come up in 2018 and predictably have an adjustment period (.742 first half OPS), we have watched him improve at an alarming rate that is quite honestly hard to believe (which is why projection models all underrate him). This is the player we all hoped he would be, and it happened almost immediately at the age of 20/21. Projection models are based on comparable players, and there simply hasn't been many players comparable to Acuna, so he breaks these models.

    An MVP season from Acuna looks like...this season. So far in 2019 he is a .950+ OPS monster at the plate and provides significant value in the field and on the bases. That's exactly what wins MVP awards if sustained over 6 months.

    My only concern is that also like Freeman, Acuna isn't getting any rest. He has started all 23 games so far, and I'm unaware of him even getting subbed out at the end of a lopsided game. The Braves suggested they would make a concerted effort to preemptively rest guys more this year, but some guys like Freeman and Acuna aren't being rested, and hopefully it doesn't lead to them wearing down later in the season.
    Last edited by Enscheff; 04-25-2019 at 11:50 AM.

  2. The Following 8 Users Say Thank You to Enscheff For This Useful Post:

    AerchAngel (04-25-2019), DaneHill (04-26-2019), JohnAdcox (04-25-2019), jpx7 (04-25-2019), salmagundy (04-25-2019), striker42 (04-25-2019), TURBO (04-25-2019), UNCBlue012 (04-25-2019)

  3. #2
    Sexist Pig TURBO's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    FL
    Posts
    5,432
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    1,022
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    3,519
    Thanked in
    1,278 Posts
    Good stuff, Really enjoy reading these.

  4. #3
    It's OVER 5,000!
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    26,261
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    34
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    10,000
    Thanked in
    6,108 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Enscheff View Post
    Acuna certainly hits the ball hard, but not "lead MLB in HR/FB rate hard". So while the HR/FB rate will likely drop into the range of the lower 20s, it won't be something that tanks his ISO.

    Secondly, the .352 BABIP is a little high based on Acuna being a ~20% LD hitter. My projection system pegged him at around a .313 mark coming into this year
    25 PAs later...

    HR/FB = 23.1%
    BABIP = .324

    Regression sucks.

  5. #4
    Making Atlanta Great Again!
    #MAGA!

    Promises MADE, Promises KEPT!
    The Chosen One's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Location
    School of Hard Cox
    Posts
    25,337
    Thanks Thanks Given 
    8,593
    Thanks Thanks Received 
    9,752
    Thanked in
    5,746 Posts
    Never saw this thread. Thanks.
    Forever Fredi


Similar Threads

  1. Ronald Acuña Jr. is very good at baseball and he knows it (Article)
    By Acuña’s Bat Flip in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 03-13-2019, 07:13 PM
  2. 2019 Braves Hitters Projections: Ronald Acuna
    By Enscheff in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 12
    Last Post: 11-04-2018, 05:17 PM
  3. Ronald Acuña’s astonishing hitting streak has energized first-place Braves
    By Goober Pyle in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 28
    Last Post: 08-19-2018, 11:51 AM
  4. Schultz: Ronald Acuña wasn’t easy to find by former Braves scout
    By Goober Pyle in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 08-15-2018, 11:02 AM
  5. Ronald Acuna is a star
    By SJ24 in forum 2023: Celebrating Our 10th Year Here
    Replies: 62
    Last Post: 01-04-2017, 10:25 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •