How independents voted in those 7 elections (not the same as left-right-moderate, I know, but we only have the numbers we have): Clinton won them by 6 in 92 and by 8 in 96, Bush won them by 2 in 2000 and lost them by one in 2004 (there's those splits that are all the right needs to win), Obama won them by 21 in 08 and 15 in 12, and Trump won them by 12 points in 16.