2019 100 PA Check In: Dansby Swanson

[Enscheff]

The guy everyone hopes can turn into a cornerstone player just crossed 100 PA for 2019, so let's take a look at how he's doing.

Overall Slash Line:

104 PAs, .250/.337/.523 (.859 OPS, .273 ISO), 116 wRC+, 0.8 WAR

What's Not Real:

The first thing that jumps off the page as unsustainable for Swanson is the 20.8% HR/FB rate. He popped a few early HRs, and it was clear his .765 early SLG was due for some serious regression. That regression in the power numbers came, and it came fast. His middle of the pack FB/LD exit velocity suggests a middle of the pack HR/FB rate, so something in the 12%-13% range seems more realistic.

Countering the likely power regression to the negative should be the positive regression of the BABIP to the positive. We have seen Swanson hit into some terrible luck, and his .270 BABIP agrees with that eye test. Swanson should be a guy that sustains a BABIP in the low .300s, which will bring up his total line a bit.

What Is Real:

Like the rest of the roster, Swanson has seen his BB rate increase to 11.5%. The K rate is holding steady at 22.1%, so there's nothing to worry about there. We've seen him appear to be handling the SL better, and aside from the wrist injury, that was the biggest offensive challenge he was facing.

I'm not ready to call his 27.9% LD rate real yet, but it is a good sign that the 19.9% LD rate from 2018 was likely the fluke, and we can expect something in the low 20s moving forward. All of his other batted ball numbers look reasonable (41.2% Pull%, 32.4% Cent%, 26.5% Oppo%), so the improved Dansby appears to be the product of health and other minor adjustments rather than an overhaul to his overall offensive approach.

Moving Forward:

It looks like the Real Dansby Swanson has finally arrived. No, not the .523 SLG guy at SS due for regression in the power department. The real healthy Swanson appears to be a good defensive SS with a line approximating .260/.350/.425. A .750-.800 OPS from a good defensive SS is extremely valuable, and is what everyone thought the Braves stole from the DBacks.

Because his name isn't Acuna or Freeman, Snit has rested Swanson 2 games already this season, which is good news for those hoping to see him fresh and healthy all year.

[AerchAngel]

Braves should hire you. I don't care. You break down things they don't even attempt to look at.

[Super]

dansby hammered the ball this series and didn't have much to show for it. it may be minor adjustments, but they've been glaring (in a good way).
an .800 OPS with his defense..is that a 4+ WAR player?

[DirkPiggler]

Do you have anything on the distribution of Swanson's hits...RF, LF, CF?

To the naked eye it sure seems that he's hitting the ball to RF with some authority, something he's never really shown in pro ball.

[thewupk]

dansby hammered the ball this series and didn't have much to show for it. it may be minor adjustments, but they've been glaring (in a good way).
an .800 OPS with his defense..is that a 4+ WAR player?

Swanson with a ~800 OPS and his defense last year in a full season would push 5 WAR.

[thewupk]

Do you have anything on the distribution of Swanson's hits...RF, LF, CF?

To the naked eye it sure seems that he's hitting the ball to RF with some authority, something he's never really shown in pro ball.

His % of pulling, up the middle, and oppo is the same. He is however hitting the ball harder overall than he has in the past. 48.5% hard hit compared to 34.4% for his career. Also evidenced by his 91.2 exit velocity so far where he he was in the mid to high 80s every season prior.

[Enscheff]

dansby hammered the ball this series and didn't have much to show for it. it may be minor adjustments, but they've been glaring (in a good way).
an .800 OPS with his defense..is that a 4+ WAR player?

I have doubts that Swanson is a .200 ISO guy, which is what would be required for the .260/.350/.450 line I had originally wrote. He's probably more a .750-.800 guy than a .800+ guy, which is in that ~3 win tier below 4-5 win guys like Correa and Lindor.

[thethe]

Thanks Encheff...pretty cool you are able to do this stuff on your free time to provide us all with excellent free content

[Tapate50]

Thanks Encheff...pretty cool you are able to do this stuff on your free time to provide us all with excellent free content

He has really mellowed out in his old age.

[AerchAngel]

Thanks Encheff...pretty cool you are able to do this stuff on your free time to provide us all with excellent free content

No one can compare, even my YNOT. Just waiting to get a server.

[UNCBlue012]

No one can compare, even my YNOT. Just waiting to get a server.

AA = 8==================D

[bravesfanMatt]

Thanks Encheff...pretty cool you are able to do this stuff on your free time to provide us all with excellent free content

FREE!! then why have I been sending him a monthly fee of $9.99. Damnit. I mean cheaper than my monthly dues for this crap site.

[AerchAngel]

AA = 8==================D

The web version is really dumb down and I can't do a lot of things. I have saved all my code on Google but it just not translate here.

If I could I would do it, just don't have it, it was under Microsoft products.